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With Big Two sidelined, instability looms ahead |
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With neither the Congress nor the BJP in effective control of their allies in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) respectively in the crucial period ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the spectre of the dawn of another era of united fronts looms ahead. Even while the notification for the first phase of the five phase general elections is to be issued within weeks, the country’s two principal parties are still trying to work out seat-sharing agreements with their partners in the alliances they head. With no wave and absence of issues and a vision to lead the country to greater heights, both the Congress and the BJP are finding it immensely difficult to sew up pacts with their allies. Significantly, none of the two is able to or in any position to dictate terms to their fellow partners. On the other hand, the allies, even those having presence only in a particular state or in a particular region, are trying to drive a hard bargain and it looks almost as if the tail is wagging the head and not the other way around.
The Congress, which is banking upon what it claims is its record of “good governance” during the last five years of the UPA Government it heads, has to cope with increased demands from allies in some States. In others, it is saddled with allies, who on the face of it, would not be of much source of strength after the Lok Sabha elections are over. In Uttar Pradesh , the Congress and the Samajwadi Party have still not been able to work out a seat- sharing accord, and the ties between the two parties are almost on the verge of breakdown. The Samajwadi Party is not willing to spare anything more than 17 of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state for the Congress, which on its part is insisting on the allocation of at least 24 seats for which it has already named its candidates. It is possible that a last minute solution is worked out with the two parties agreeing to have what is euphemistically called friendly contest on a number of seats. Such an arrangement will be music to the ears of the bitter rival of the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, Chief Minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which in any case is set to increase its strength in the Lok Sabha at the cost of other parties. The Congress and the Samajwadi Party could have cut some of their losses, but apparently that is unlikely given the emerging scenario.
In West Bengal, an effective alliance between the Congress and the Trinamul Congress is capable of giving sleepless nights to the CPI(M) led Left Front, which in the outgoing Lok Sabha held more than four-fifths of the total seats. But though the two parties agreed last week to have an alliance to checkmate the Left Parties , the sharing of seats is still to be worked out. The Trinamul Congress does not want to spare more than 12 to 14 seats for the Congress and what is galling for the national party is that most of these seats are ‘unwinnable’ where the Left parties have a dominant presence. Whether wisdom dawns on the Congress and the Trinamul to have an effective alliance based on a fair allocation of seats remains to be seen.
In Bihar, the Congress, which is a minor player, is still not able to work out a truce between two UPA constituents, Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party. Even if a seat sharing agreement is worked out , the UPA has a major battle ahead with a resurgent Janata Dal United-BJP in the state. Riding on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s good image and track record of governance, the JDU - BJP alliance hopes to give a bloody nose to the UPA in the Lok Sabha elections. This will be a major setback for the UPA and specially the RJD, which had won 22 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. There appears to be no way in which the UPA can repeat its 2004 performance in the coming elections.
In Tamil Nadu, it appears that the DMK is willing to allocate more seats to the Congress during the Lok Sabha elections but this would be of hardly much use as the UPA is face to face with the prospect of a major setback in the coming polls. The anti-incumbency factor and the Sri Lankan Tamils issue have created a situation where Jayalalithaa’s All India Anna DMK is set for major gains at the cost of the UPA which had won all 40 seats from Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry in 2004. Even in the best of scenarios, the UPA has to give up at least 50 percent of its seats .
The situation for the BJP is not much better. The party is facing trouble in working out seat sharing with allies in major states like Maharashtra , Orissa and Bihar. The Shiv Sena is demanding more seats in Maharashtra and also, there is no certainty that the party will back the BJP in the post poll scenario . Shiv Sena leaders’ talks with Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar indicate that the party will have no hesitation in backing Pawar for the Prime Minister’s position , if such a situation arises when the results of the Lok Sabha polls are out. In Bihar, the Janata Dal United is demanding allocation of more seats on the ground that the BJP is no longer a major force in the state. In Orissa, the Biju Janata Dal of Chief Minister Navin Patnaik, citing the BJP’s weakened position, has broken the alliance with the BJP and quit the NDA.
The state of the national parties being what it is, there does not appear to be any option for them but to agree to the demands of their allies, even if they appear outlandish . An advance warning of the instability looming ahead comes from the plethora of Prime Ministerial hopefuls which is emerging. Many leaders have already thrown their hats in the ring including Mulayam Singh Yadav, Sharad Pawar and Ram Vilas Paswan . It is likely to be anybody’s game after the elections unless the national parties come up with a vision and platform, which cuts ice with the people, for seeking the mandate of the nation.
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