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West Bengal : Mamata’s dilemma |
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Having lost the Assembly elections, Ms. Mamata Banerjee’s options are either to continue her alliance with the Congress or to join the NDA and thereby prevent a possible split in her party. There is immense speculation in the media on what she will do, but the Congress has made it clear that their alliance will largely depend on Mamata’s relationship with the NDA. The state unit of the BJP has said that the Trinamul Congress is welcome to the NDA, but without Mamata Banerjee and Sudip Bandopadhya whom it consider as the two real villains.
Mamata Banerjee is, therefore, in a dilemma. There is a serious difference of opinion between the legislature party of Trinamul Congress and its parliamentary wing. While a majority of the Trinamul Congress MPs are in favour of rejoining the NDA as well as the Vajpayee cabinet, the newly elected legislators feel this will send a wrong signal to the party’s rank and file and give a fresh handle to the ruling Marxists to question Ms. Banerjee’s political credibility.
The Trinamul Congress leader, however, does not intend to move fast on the issue despite growing pressure from some party MPs who do not rule out an eventual split. According to informed sources, Ms. Banerjee intends to make up her mind only after seeing the outcome of the Tehelka probe and the coming Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. State Congress and BJP leaders have already publicly opposed any alliance with Ms. Banerjee, thereby further complicating the issue. The Trinamul Congress supremo, who has already complained to the Congress chairperson about the critical remarks made about her by some leaders, is apparently awaiting a directive from Mrs. Gandhi to the concerned party leaders before finalising her stand. The party, however, remains a divided house on the continuation of its alliance with the Trinamul Congress. While some leaders in the Lok Sabha and State unit of the party are in favour of strengthening the party’s ties with Ms. Banerjee, others want termination of the alliance and have demanded fresh steps from the high command to enable the state unit to stand on its own feet without depending on the help from any other party.
Apart from this non-cooperation with her party, another factor which has apparently promoted Ms. Banerjee to consider all the pros and cons of returning to the NDA, is the CPIM’s unabated post-poll terror in rural Bengal. There has been growing realisation by the Trinamul Congress supremo that she cannot protect her party workers from the Marxist wrath in isolation. She feels the Centre may not be in a position to decline her request to sternly deal with the new Left Front government in the event of her return to the NDA. Besides, Ms. Banerjee is concerned over the reported bonhomie between the Centre and Chief Minsiter Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee after the latter’s visit to New Delhi recently.
Mr. Bhattacharjee has already made it clear that his government will not adopt any confrontationist stand vis-a-vis the Centre as far as the state’s development is concerned. The Trinamul Congress supremo feels she will be in a catch 22 situation in case the Left Front Government under Bhattacharjee’s leadership can develop a proper working relationship with Vajpayee. The alliance with the Congress will not be of much help to her in any such eventuality.
The main hurdle to Ms. Banerjee’s possible return to the NDA is the CPIM’s plan to launch a well-thought out campaign to discredit her politically as soon as she takes a decision to join the NDA. The Marxists will charge her with resorting to opportunism and point out her ideological bankruptcy as soon as she decides to rejoin the NDA and the Vajpayee cabinet. The Congress leadership is also likely to level similar charges against Ms. Banerjee once she goes back to the NDA since she had taken part in a joint poll campaign with Mrs. Gandhi only a month back.
Ms. Banerjee, of course, does not intend to overlook the sharp decline in the BJP’s support base all over the country as is evident from the outcome of the recently held Assembly polls in four states and one union territory and byelections to two parliamentary seats. She has also taken note of the Congress rise in different states and does not rule out the possibility of the party replacing the BJP as the ruling party at the Centre after the next Lok Sabha poll.
However, the pressure from her party MPs for short-term gains and the Congress high command’s somewhat ambiguous stand vis-a-vis the CPM are promoting her to review her alliance with the Congress. She has, however, made it clear to everybody that her prime concern is to strengthen her party in West Bengal.
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