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Violent start to elections: message from the voters |
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Voters braved Naxalite violence and a blazing summer sun to come out in large numbers at the polling booths in the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections, making clear their intention to play a decisive role in the formation of the next government at the Centre. According to preliminary estimates, the voting percentage overall was between 58 and 62 per cent against the 60 recorded in constituencies corresponding to the area covered by the 124 Lok Sabha seats which figured in the first phase. Generally there is a difference of three to four per cent between the first figures and the final tally.
The voter turnout is all the more significant as most of the Naxal affected areas were covered in the first phase. The extremists did their worst to ensure that the voters do not come out of their houses to vote. In the days preceding the polling, they mounted several attacks on the security forces and other targets to make clear their objective of disrupting the poll process and intimidating the voters. On the day of the polling, that is, April 16, the Naxalites mounted as many as fifteen strikes on polling stations, election officials and security forces before, during and after the polling, resulting in the death of over 20 people, mostly security officials.
Another pointer from the first phase poling comes from Hyderabad, the first of the country’s six metropolitan cities, which figured in the areas which voted. In the past, urban areas generally registered low voter turnout, reflecting the disinterest or lack of interest of the urban middle class in the election process. Urban voters used to think that exercising their franchise was a futility as it would not make a difference to the election outcome and also the governance of the state or the country. But this time, the situation was different as people came out in large numbers in Hyderabad to cast their votes. Officials on duty in the city agreed that voting in the urban areas had never been so impressive earlier.
With the Election Commission banning opinion and exit polls till the final phase of voting on May 13, the people of the country have now no means to assess how the situation is developing. But the voting figures in different states tell a tale.
In Uttar Pradesh, the voting percentage in the first phase was 49, against 48 registered five years ago. This perhaps reflects the keen tussle between the four parties which are fighting it out in the state. In Bihar, where the JDU-BJP combine appears to have an upper hand, the voting percentage came down from 58 to 46 per cent, reflecting perhaps the inability of the opposition in the state – the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Lok Janshakti Party and the Congress - to enthuse the voters supporting them to turn up at the polling booths. In Orissa also, the voting percentage has come down - from 64 to 53. But this may not help the ruling party – the Biju Janata Dal - as now it is fighting alone and not in alliance with the BJP. The Congress may be the gainer in the scenario where the BJD and the BJP have not been able to generate enthusiasm among the voters. In two other Naxal violence affected states – Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh –the voting is above fifty per cent, but slightly below the figures recorded in 2004. This may help the ruling BJP in Chhattisgarh but may spell the doom of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in Jharkhand, especially as party chief Shibu Soren has not been able to campaign as he is admitted to a hospital in the national capital.
Andhra Pradesh witnessed 65 per cent polling, a decline of three per cent, which indicates that the Praja Rajyam magic has not worked. Otherwise the state would have witnessed a far better voter turnout. This may be bad news for the Congress as the party would have benefited if there had been a three way division of votes, with the Praja Rajyam cutting into the opposition space now occupied by the third force of the TDP, the TRS and the Left parties.
Kerala has as usual recorded 71 per cent polling, the same as in the last election, giving some hope to the CPI (M) led Left Democratic Front. If there had been heavier polling, it would have almost certainly resulted in a clean sweep for the Congress-led United Democratic Front.
In another major state, Maharashtra, the polling percentage was 54 in the first phase, a drop of five per cent from the scenario five years ago. This may be good news for the Congress-NCP coalition which has been ruling the state for ten years. Higher voting would have meant the Shiv Sena-BJP NDA alliance cornering a larger number of seats than in 2004. While one can make intelligent guesses about how the situation is emerging, the voters’ final say will become clear only on May 16 when votes of all the five phases are counted, Political parties in all combines are already preparing to forge new friendships and alliances to have a share in power in the next coalition at the Centre.
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