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Victory of Nepal Maoists |
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Harjit Singh
The Nepali Congress and the Seven Party conglomerate may be popping champagne to celebrate their victory and the restoration of their Government. But, whose victory it really is? Both the credit as well as the real advantage of the fall of the King goes to the Communists and not the old and corrupt politicians who in the past were more busy fighting for loaves and fishes of office rather than working for the good of the country. New Delhi, which took a largely neutral stand and did not stand by the monarch, now sees its policy of monarchy and democracy existing side by side in Nepal lying shattered.. The King sits crest-fallen and the Seven Party Alliance is finds itself being dictated by the Maoists from outside. Whether it was the 12-point agreement with the Maoists before the end of King’s direct rule or the 25-point agreement they have hammered out now, it seems as if the Maoists are dictating terms and the SPA is faithfully obeying. For instance, the Nepali Congress was never for a complete end to monarchy. It stood for a clear balance of powers between the King and the elected Government. But, the Maoists have ensured that at the very first session of Parliament, a resolution was passed divesting the King of most powers and reducing him to a titular head. Maoist chief Prachanda has seen to it that the SPA resolution also commits to holding elections to the Constituent Assembly, one of their major demands to turn the country into a Republican State. They have made the Government remove the terrorist tag on them and most of their men have been released from jail. Strange enough, one of the clauses of their 25-point agreement envisages that while the Maoists will not go in for further recruitment of fighters, the Nepali Army [the Royal prefix has since been dropped] also will not make further recruitment. The Maoists are still keeping the SPA Government on tenterhooks. They have only agreed to a ceasefire for three months with the option to go back on it and take up weapons again if the SPA does not honour its side of the bargain. .
It is, therefore, clear from each and every concession the Government has made that without being in the Government and without appearing in public, Maoist Chief Pushap Kamal Dahal, alias Prachanda, is the real winner in the whole game. He is able to dictate terms to the Government and the day is not far off when he will stake claim for leadership of the country.
The die was cast on June 2 when Communist Party of Nepal [Maoist] spokesman, Krishna Bahadur Mahara said, “I think our leader Prachanda deserves a chance to lead this country”. “The movement is not yet over and we are leading it”, he said, as if conveying that after dethroning the King, the next step is to bundle out the SPA, whom he accused of trying to compromise with the democratic aspirations of the people under the dictates of foreign forces.
The Maoist chief has refused to give up arms even after the SPA Government made so many concessions. Many parts of the country, particularly the rural areas are completely under Maoist control. Disenchanted with the country’s political system they want a complete revamp of the multi-party democratic system to set up a Marxist order. In the process, they want to end the monarchy. Unless the Maoists give up arms and join the democratic process, it is going to be a difficult phase not only for Nepal but also for India.
India, stands to lose greatly if the Maoists either come to power or act as the King-makers. The Maoists of Nepal have very strong and deep-rooted contacts with the Naxalites in India. India is plagued by Maoist violence in 150 districts of 14 States. In recent months, the Maoists have broken into jails to free incarcerated cadres, hijacked a train and attacked police stations to loot arms and ammunition. Daily incidents of violence and IED blasts are commonplace. In the deep jungles of Central India, the Maoists collect taxes and impose fines. They are rapidly acquiring organizational cohesiveness and may soon begin to coordinate their attacks. As has been the case with insurgencies in Jammu and Kashmir and India’s north-eastern States, the Maoists from Nepal, fresh from their victory over the King, are bound to jump into the fray with what they call “political, diplomatic and moral” support. Hence, the Indian government has been apprehensive of growing linkages between Indian and Nepalese Maoists. A full-fledged civil war in Nepal that results in a Maoist take over would be immensely detrimental to India’s national security interests.
A recent meeting of the Maoists from Nepal and India at Rajgir in Bihar and the deliberations there mirror the extent to which Left extremists have been emboldened by the UPA government’s decision to abandon King Gyanendra and cut a deal with Chairman Prachanda and his terror brigade. Reports say, the rally in Rajgir which was also attended by elusive Nepali leader Prachanda himself, drew up a roadmap for violent action – including attacks on the State’s political leadership and government establishments. The fact that a large number of Maoists of Nepal and India could hold a three-day meeting without any let up or hindrance from security agencies is comment enough on both the UPA Government’s inability to appreciate the contours of the emerging threat to India’s internal security as well as its approach towards crushing the Left extremists. A few months ago, the dreaded Maoist outfit had shocked the entire nation by storming the Jehanabad jail and getting some of their top leaders released. More than 350 prisoners had escaped.
India’s policy of the monarchy and the democracy as the two pillars of polity in Nepal now lies grounded. The day is not far off when the Maoist flag will flutter on the Singha Durbar and Prachanda and his men will ensconce themselves in the building. India has to prepare for that eventuality.
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