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Verdict 2004 : Sonia all set to replace Vajpayee

	May 17, 2004

Congress President Sonia Gandhi is all set to become the Prime Minister of India, following the impressive win of the Congress-led combine that ousted the ruling National Democratic Alliance led by A.B. Vajpayee from power in the Lok Sabha elections. Though the Congress and its pre-poll allies won 217 against the BJP plus allies of 186, Sonia Gandhi is assured of backing from the Left Front that triumphed with 62 seats, it best showing ever to form a coalition government at the Centre. Sonia is expected to meet President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam on May 17 to stake her claim to form the new government, with letters of support from friendly parties. Key players like Nationalist Congress party’s Sharad Pawar, Samajwadi party’s Mulayam Singh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party’s Mayawati have no option than to back a Congress-led coalition as they had campaigned for the removal of the Vajpayee-led government.

Veteran Marxist strategist H.S. Surjeet has once again taken the centrestage in trying to cobble up a coalition with a common minimum programme. Though the Left does not entirely agree with the Congress on many issues like the pace of economic reforms, it has more or less accepted Congress as the leader of the secular front because of its emergence as the largest party.

Even as the Left decides and debates, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has decided not to join the Congress-led Government at the Centre immediately. This was after the DMK chief Karunanidhi met Sonia Gandhi in New Delhi on May 16. The Congress party expects most of its allies to give their letters of support by today (Monday) to facilitate Ms Gandhi to stake her claim to form government which is likely to assume office on May 19. According to AICC General Secretary Ambika Soni, the Election Commission is likely to inform the President on May 17 about the names of candidates elected in the just concluded Lok Sabha elections after which a formal notification would be issued about Parliament having been constituted.

Letters of support from all the allies would be received by the time Sonia meets the President. Such letters had so far been received from Shibu Soren of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Laloo Prasad Yadav of the RJD, Ram Vilas Paswan of the Lok Jan Shakti, Ms Mehbooba Mufti from PDP and M Karunanidhi of the DMK. The Lok Janshakti Party and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha have written to the President, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, informing him of their decision to support the formation of a secular government headed by Congress president Sonia Gandhi.

Any doubts whether Sonia would be accepted as a leader have been scotched with the overwhelming support she had got all over the country. She has been unanimously elected as the leader of the Congress Parliamentary Party (CPP). Soon after being elected CPP leader Sonia called the people’s verdict as one against the communal politics indulged in by the BJP and the saffron outfits and also asserted the Congress will ensure the formation of a stable government that worked in the interest of the common man and the poor as well as women and the farmers. The decisive verdict has demolished the sustained BJP campaign against Sonia’s foreign origin with the voters indicating she was considered very much an Indian.



Significance of the Left

The first thing that Ms Gandhi did after her election was to hold discussion with former West Bengal Chief Minister and CPI(M) Politburo member Jyoti Basu regarding the formation of the government. Basu is one of the leading supporter of Sonia as Prime Minister arguing that there was no constitutional provision to stop her from becoming Prime Minister, after being elected leader of the largest single party.

Three Left parties have been deliberating on the formation of a secular government at the Centre, specifically on the nature of support to the Congress-led formation. There was a near-consensus that the entire Left should take a uniform stand on whether to join or extend outside support to the new government. There are strong indications that the Left Front is not likely to join the Congress-led government. Sharp divisions were evident in the politburo meeting with senior members from West Bengal and Kerala stoutly opposing Harkishen Singh Surjeet and Jyoti Basu’s suggestion that the Left should join the government to have a greater say in policy and make it more stable.

West Bengal chief minister Buddhadev Bhattacharjee and senior leaders Biman Bose and Anil Biswas were reportedly opposed to participation in the government. They found strong support from their Kerala colleagues, many of whom pointed out that they were in a direct fight with the Congress in the two states and close association with a Sonia Gandhi-led government would have an adverse impact. Politburo leader Prakash Karat is opposed to joining the government as well. He had been against this in 1996, when the CPI(M) refused to join the government even though at the time Jyoti Basu was tipped for the post of Prime Minister.

Sitaram Yechury of the CPI-M is of the opinion that the Left should not be considered as shirking its responsibility if it decided to stay outside the government. “Our support to the Congress-led government is total and committed,” he asserted.

The Left parties have already welcomed Sonia Gandhi’s election as the leader of the Congress Parliamentary Party, a step away from her election as Prime Minister of India. Jyoti Basu has supported her Indianness, saying in her defence that she “cannot build a Roman empire here.”

The Left Front has decided that it will not split in different directions and that the decision of the larger partner, the CPI(M), on joining or not joining the government would be final. “It is not the mandate for the Left ... It is a mandate for the formation of a secular combination,” Yechury commented.



Govt formation : Key players

Apart from the Left, the Samajwadi Party, with 35 seats, and the Bahujan Samaj Party with 19, have emerged as important players although a government can be formed with them. The other influential players will be the NCP of Sharad Pawar with 9 seats. From the south, it Will be the DMK with 16 seats that will exercise some influence on the government, albeit from outside.

Significantly, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati has made her support clear, while Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Laloo Prasad Yadav, another important player, is backing Sonia’s leadership in the interest of secular formation.

Samajwadi Party (SP) leaders Mulayam Singh Yadav and Amar Singh have been holding discussion with Harkishen Singh Surjeet to discuss government formation at the Centre. With the Congress, its allies and the Left getting more than 270 seats, SP doesn’t seem to have many choices. (A simple majority of 272 in the House of 543) is required to form a government). SP leaders have announced that they would abide by whatever decision the Left takes. The party, they said, would make any sacrifice to ensure formation of a secular government at the Centre. However, they avoided comment on Sonia Gandhi becoming the Prime Minister. The SP is upset that the Congress leaders during their poll campaign had dubbed the SP as an “agent” of the BJP.

Meanwhile, NCP chief Sharad Pawar, who met Sonia Gandhi has said the issue of Sonia Gandhi heading the new government would be discussed by all the allies and prospective partners. He added his party’s Working Committee will decide whether to join the new government but made it clear the NCP would help and support the Congress in providing a stable coalition. Pawar, who had kept aside his party’s opposition to a person of foreign origin occupying the top post before entering into an alliance with the Congress, has now said that discussions with the Left parties, which could play a “crucial role” in providing a stable coalition, were being given top priority. He agreed that without the association of the Left, it will be difficult to provide a stable government.

The important task for the future alliance is to agree to a Common Minimum Programme. The Congress has constituted a drafting committee headed by Manmohan Singh for this purpose. The members include Pranab Mukherjee, Arjun Singh, Jaipal Reddy and Jairam Ramesh.

The Left parties have been in the forefront in the attack on BJP-led NDA for its saffron agenda and communal politics. They had time and again vowed to replace the BJP from the centre on many issues including the disinvestments policy which they felt was tilted in favour of the MNCs, harming the indigenous industry, the labour reforms as well as Ayodhya. The rout of the Vajpayee-led government is a major victory for the Left forces. Besides, their spectacular win in West Bengal and Kerala has put them in a commanding position, able to dictate terms to the Congress. Irrespective of whether the Left joins the coalition government or not, there is little doubt that in the months to come their imprint will be visible in major decisions taken by the Congress government.

The Left parties have good reasons for their jubilation as they have hit a new high with over 60 seats, their highest tally in the Lok Sabha so far. The previous high was 51 in 1971-72. The Left parties won 35 of the 42 seats in West Bengal. In Kerala, the CPI(M)-led LDF won 18 of the 20 seats on offer.

These parties’ attitude towards a Congress-led coalition, its contours and extending support to such a formation from outside or inside has come up for a detailed discussions over the last weekend. The Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Communist Party of India, the Revolutionary Socialist Party and the All-India Forward Bloc have all discussed various issues in their policy-making bodies in Delhi.

There is difference of opinion within the Left over the role the Samajwadi Party should play in the formation of the next government considering the latter’s attitude in not joining hands with the Congress ahead of the polls. The Left feels that it is not the pro-Congress vote alone that has brought the secular formation close to government-formation but an anti-Vajpayee mood, coupled with the transfer of secular votes, in many parts of the country to parties (mainly the Congress) that are well-placed to defeat the BJP.

“The Congress is the major party but others are not insignificant. Whoever can be roped in should be invited to join the secular front,’’ according to Surjeet. He said he would prefer the Samajwadi Party to the Bahujan Samaj Party because of its “consistent record in combating the BJP.” The CPI general secretary, A.B. Bardhan, stressed the record verdict for the Left was a positive one - underlining the important role it had to play in the coming days for a secular coalition government based on a common minimum programme (CMP) of immediate basic needs.

Both Bardhan and Surjeet made it clear there should be no problem in accepting the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, as the Prime Minister. “Obviously, the largest party will have the decisive say in the matter and I think a consensus in the matter would be reached shortly,’’ said Bardhan. The only problem with the Left is how to compromise its opposition to the Congress in West Bengal and Kerala, with support at the Centre without losing its credibility.

The most important feature of the mandate is the ability it would give to the Congress to withstand pressure from one group or the other. The Left could counter pressure from all other potential allies, specially the SP and BSP. But even the Left could be countered though with some difficulty by the other set of parties. Today, however, the aim is to have as broad-based a coalition as possible.