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Uttar Pradesh : SP, BJP moves |
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Far from being dejected by the UP events, the BJP sees it as an opportunity to revive itself. Its gameplan for Uttar Pradesh is to attempt to polarise the polity between the BJP and the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) in the state, simultaneously eroding the BSP’s strength and marginalising the Congress. For this to work, party sources stressed, an electoral understanding between the Congress and the BSP had to prevented at all costs.
It is a gameplan in which the SP, the party sources say, is a willing partner: The first condition for the BJP “helping” the SP form a government in UP was that the latter should not “raid” the BJP — instead, it should focus on depleting the BSP’s ranks, making the BJP the second largest party in the assembly and its leader there the leader of the opposition, a prerequisite towards a BJP-SP polarisation in the state.
Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav makes for a perfect foil for the BJP playing the role of a “constructive opposition” and reviving its Hindutva agenda in UP — especially the temple issue, following a purported ASI report suggesting the existence of a 10th century temple beneath the erstwhile Babri Masjid in Ayodhya.
The second part was that the SP should keep the Congress in good humour, even though it does not really need its support, to prevent a Congress-BSP arrangement: Mulayam Singh won his vote of confidence, polling 244 in a House, whose current strength is 401. Even without the Congress’s 16 votes, he would be way above the 201-halfway mark required.
Nevertheless, Mulayam Singh met Congress president Sonia Gandhi in New Delhi to thank her for her support, to keep the Congress within the fold to prevent any tie-up with the BSP, which would adversely affect both the SP and BJP in UP, and the BJP in the four states — MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi — where assembly polls are due later this year.
The state of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh is such that a senior party leader has admitted that if elections are held now, the party would fare poorly. In spite of all political moves, observers feel that the BSP will retain its strength on the ground, and the Mulayam Singh-led combination would improve on its present numbers. This explains the BJP eagerness to avoid early elections in the state. The BJP’s only hope lies in the Mulayam Singh government lasting out the rest of the term by when, hopefully, it would break up. In the BJP assessment, Mulayam Singh, Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Ajit Singh, BJP rebel leader Kalyan Singh and the Congress will not be able to work together for long.
Mulayam-Sonia non-committal
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav may have publicly regretted describing Congress president Sonia Gandhi as a “foreigner” but this does not mean she is acceptable as a prime-ministerial candidate. Nor is he in any rush to form a secular front with the Congress and other opposition parties for next year’s Lok Sabha election. This was clear from his statement in New Delhi when he addressed the Press for the first time after taking over as UP Chief Minister. He was non-committal on supporting Sonia as PM and virtually ruled out the formation of any political front at the national level. He emphasised repeatedly that his party believes in “giving and taking issue-based support”.
Mulayam’s change is stance is being seen by political observers as a response to the Congress decision not to join the Samajwadi Party-led coalition in UP despite his personal appeal. Clarifying his position, he said “We have never talked of forming any joint political front. We have not formed such a front, nor do we have any plans of forming one. We remain open to give and take issue-based support,” Mulayam asserted. At the same time, he said, his party was of the opinion that like-minded parties should join hands.
Asked repeatedly about his stand vis-a-vis the Congress and Sonia, Mulayam Singh dismissed these questions as “irrelevant.” He asked when Lok Sabha polls were not imminent, there was no issue of Prime-ministership. He was equally evasive about a possible tie-up between the SP and the Congress in the coming assembly elections, saying the decision had been left to the state units.
The official Congress reaction to Mulayam Singh’s reluctance to forge any alliance or understanding, but only a willingness to “give and take”, was that the party would not join his government, for the moment. But it was evident that the party was not taking Yadav’s observations kindly. “We too have our principles and our constituency to protect. Let Yadav come up with a common minimum programme, or a secular front, then we can consider moving closer,” said a Congress official.
The Congress appeared keen to keep its options open, both at the national level and in the states where polls are due in November, walking the tight rope between two potential allies, Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, that are arch rivals in Uttar Pradesh. Cold shouldered by Yadav, who also would like to weigh his options till the general elections are around, the Congress might cosy up to BSP which has pockets of support in Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh.
In public, however, Chief Ministers Digvijay Singh and Ajit Jogi, have discounted any understanding with BSP. But Congress sources have admitted there have been meetings between Mayawati and senior Congress leaders.
The Congress sources have emphasised they would “neither gain, nor lose” by keeping out of the Yadav government in UP. The Congress is afraid of being gobbled up by the Samajwadi party clout in UP. Yadav’s comments regarding the prospects Sonia Gandhi becoming the country’s Prime Minister were being seen as those that could have been avoided in the new situation where the Congress had played a role in his becoming the CM.
Observers feel Yadav response in an ambivalent manner was indicative of his anxiety to consolidate in UP before he could widen his horizon. But it was also felt that Yadav was, for the time being at least, not keen to be part of any “secular alliance” in time for the November polls.
Though his coalition looks stable at the moment, with the Samajwadi Party’s numbers going up to 185 MLAs, Mulayam has reasons for ensuring that the Congress joins Mulayam Singh government. He would like to deny the Congress the advantage it would enjoy by staying out of the government and share decision-making on controversial issues like reopening of the prosecution in the Ayodhya case, say observers.
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