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Uttar Pradesh : Significant developments

	November 04, 2002

The current political crisis in Uttar Pradesh could not have come at a more inopportune time for Chief Minister Mayawati who has just completed six months in office. Despite reports of defections to the Mulayam Singh camp by Independent MLAs and rebel Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MLAs, Mayawati is maintaining that she enjoys majority in the Assembly and the Samajwadi Party’s (SP) claim of enough support to dislodge the coalition government was exaggerated and false. She is backed by the Governor Vishnu Kant Shashti who also feels there is no need for summoning the House to test the majority of the Government. For the SP, the major task is to secure the backing of the Congress if the government does collapse as Mulayam wants to avoid a fresh Assembly poll at this juncture and wants to be in power till the next Lok Sabha elections. But Sonia Gandhi has not yet committed her support to the SP and is reviewing the possibility of the Congress coming to power in case of fresh elections. The BJP, in the meanwhile, is adopting a carrot and stick policy while disciplining its rebels, who want plum posts in the Cabinet. The BJP is also exuding confidence that the crisis engineered by the SP will peter out soon as the party rebels in the State risk disqualification if they go along with Mulayam’s party unless they are at least one-third of the total strength. The disqualification will also result in the reduced numbers to prove majority in the Assembly thus saving the coalition from collapse.

Mayawati has shown no signs of panic at the SP overtures to her party MLAs and is sure of keeping the flock together. Saying that there was no threat to her Government, Mayawati termed the political crisis in Uttar Pradesh as an ‘internal affair’ of the Bharatiya Janata Party. “The dissidence is not directed against me,” the Bahujan Samaj Party leader told mediapersons in Lucknow on the completion of six months in power.

“There is nothing alarming as such dissatisfaction is common to every political party,” Mayawati said in a bid to make the crisis appear like a routine matter. She also rubbished Mulayam Singh Yadav’s claim about enjoying the support of 204 MLAs in the 403-member State Assembly. She pointed out that the SP had been unable to furnish the names of supporting MLAs with their confirmation. She declined to convene a special session of the Assembly as demanded by the BJP dissidents and some Independent MLAs. The Chief Minister underlined the fact that she had submitted a list of 211 members when she staked claim to form the Government. However, when she sought a vote of confidence the number rose to 217, which was also the number of MLAs who voted for the government during the recent budget session too.

In the ruling coalition, the BSP has 99 MLAs, the BJP 88 and the Rashtriya Lok Dal 14. The coalition is supported by smaller political groups and 14 Independent MLAs.



Maturity in Sonia actions : Mayawati

In view of this, even after the withdrawal of support by some Independents, the Governor had placed the coalition’s tally at 210, still well above the simple majority of 202. There had been some speculation on Mayawati sounding out Sonia Gandhi. But Mayawati denied that she has some sort of secret understanding with the Congress whose President has been lukewarm to the Samajwadi Party’s repeated appeals for support in toppling the UP Government. Sonia apparently feels that pulling down the UP Government will turn the Dalits (Scheduled Caste Hindus) in the State against the Congress in future elections.

“I can see a lot of sense and maturity in Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s actions,” Mayawati said. “Obviously, she (Sonia) is now familiar with Mulayam’s wily traits. After all, some time ago he had refused to extend support when she was trying to form an alternative government at the Centre.If you look at his track record, Mulayam has ditched everyone whose support he had sought. Even I was fooled by his much-touted claim to build a new force of backwards and Dalits,” the Chief Minister said. “This time even with all his money power, Mulayam would be unable to buy a single legislator,” she claimed. She also spelt out a long list of her Government’s achievements over the past six months.



Opposition delegation meets Governor

The Mayawati-led Government faced serious trouble with the submission of a memorandum by an Opposition delegation to the UP Governor on November 1 claiming the support of 204 MLAs in the 403-strong House and urging the dismissal of the present Government. The Congress was not part of the delegation. The memorandum also asked the Governor to invite Mulayam Singh Yadav to form a government.

“The Mayawati Ministry is now in a minority after the withdrawal of support by 12 BJP MLAs and it should be dismissed keeping in view past precedents,” the memorandum claimed. The Samajwadi Party claimed that it had the support of 204 legislators, including 142 SP MLAs, 11 Independents and 37 Bharatiya Janata Party rebels. Besides, legislators belonging to the Apna Dal (3), the Rashtriya Kranti Party (4), the CPI-M (2), the National Loktantrik Party (1), the Samajwadi Janata Party (1), the Janata Party (1), the Rashtriya Parivartan Dal (1) and one unattached member had also extended their support. The Governor made no commitment to the Opposition MLAs.

“We urged the Governor to dismiss the Mayawati-led coalition Ministry and invite Mulayam Singh, leader of the single largest party in the Assembly, to form a government,” SP general secretary Amar Singh said. The Opposition leaders promised to prove their majority on the floor of the Assembly within a stipulated period.

However the Congress is still weighing the options. However, Amar Singh has claimed that the Congress had promised to support an alternative government in UP if the Mayawati Ministry collapsed on its own. “Our talks with the Congress leaders on their support to an alternative government are continuing in Delhi. We are receiving an encouraging response from the Congress,” he said. The Communist Party (Marxist) asked the Congress to take the initiative in forming a new government in UP.

Political observers feel that if the SP managed to convince the BJP rebels, then it would lead to the breakdown of the coalition Government. Already 12 BJP MLAs met the Governor claiming their loss of faith in the Mayawati Government. But the position is not clear and the BJP High Command is still trying to settle the matter. The BJP has issued stern threats to the dissidents. “We are talking to our legislators at the State level and they will come around. Disqualification will only be the last option and we are monitoring the situation,” said BJP president Venkaiah Naidu in Delhi.

Protests in the BJP ranks started after Mayawati expanded her Cabinet on October 11. The BJP MLAs, however, were already unhappy with Mayawati after she reversed former Chief Minister Rajnath Singh’s job reservation policy. She is being seen as pursuing her Dalit agenda, but doing little to improve coordination with her allies. But the BJP leadership, with its eyes fixed on the next Lok Sabha poll, is trying desperately to keep the Mayawati Government afloat and Mulayam Singh Yadav at bay. In May, Mayawati had beaten the Samajwadi Party chief’s claim to form the government in UP. Now Yadav and his party MLAs are trying their best to oust her from power.



BJP’s fading clout : The importance of UP

The political crisis in Uttar Pradesh is yet another pointer towards the waning strength of the BJP leadership’s hold on the party cadre. The BJP leadership is aware of this and is trying to use it to its advantage while trying to keep its two planks - Hindutva (Hindu chauvinism) and Ayodhya - in the background. At the same time, the current crisis is also an indicator of the growth of the party. It has to go through this process as power ends up in fracturing a big party at the regional level, writes a columnist.

The Congress had gone through a similar crisis when it was in power. One saw breakaway factions, rise of powerful regional leaders who found a centralised power structure very stifling, and one saw the demise of party workers and rise of power brokers. And then one saw eventually the collapse of the Congress and split in the party in the States. Similar dynamics seem to be working in the case of the BJP. There were the Kalyan Singhs and Shankarsinh Vaghelas who broke away from the BJP earlier. Interestingly, the States which constitute strongholds for the two most powerful leaders of the BJP, Prime Minister Vajpayee and Deputy Prime Minister Advani, are the most vulnerable at present.

Uttar Pradesh, according to the columnist, has been the citadel of the BJP. It is the stronghold of Vajpayee. He is one of the tallest leaders from the State, and therefore the stakes are high for him to keep up the perception that he is the undisputed leader of the party. After all, the 2004 Lok Sabha elections are staring in the face of the party. He has been personally supervising the political affairs of the State. Even during the recent Cabinet expansion, Chief Minister Mayawati was in constant touch with either the Prime Minister or his aides. When revolt surfaces in the home State of the Prime Minister, it is a signal that all is not well in the party. This has to be seen in the context of other attacks on the Prime Minister including those from the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), Rashtriya Swyamsevak Sangh (RSS), the Swadeshi Jagran Manch and the disinvestment lobby.

What happens in UP is bound to have some effect on Gujarat polls in December. If by any chance the Mayawati Government falls or the BJP leadership is not able to contain the dissidence in the party, there is bound to be its echo in Gujarat election results. The leadership would seem to be weak. This would be bad for the BJP, which has been losing State after State these past four years. Therefore, the party leadership is at pains to ensure that dissidence is quelled at all costs. Former BJP president Kushabhau Thakre has been deputed to quell the dissidence.

Earlier, former Chief Minister Rajnath Singh was sent on a similar mission amidst rumours that he himself was responsible for the dissidence as he was against Mayawati. One thing appears to be clear: There is no threat to the Mayawati Government as her bete-noire, Mulayam Singh Yadav, is still not able to reach the magic number. Mayawati and the BJP are in an advantageous position as the UP Assembly Speaker and the Governor are former BJP members. The Congress, with its chunk of 25 MLAs, is adopting a cautious approach. The SP chief has to break either the BJP or the BSP to achieve his goal. Both options are not that easy, says the columnist.

The Congress has its own dilemma. If one looks at the ground situation, the Congress, which lost its primacy in the State, still holds the key. With the perception that the Congress is on the comeback trail, the party is not in a hurry to rush to the help of the Samajwadi Party. Moreover, Congress president Sonia Gandhi, who is in the process of revitalising the party, has had interactions in at least six rallies so far and the message she seems to be getting from the cadre is to stand-alone and not go in for coalition.