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Uttar Pradesh : Shifting loyalties

	September 08, 2003

Uttar Pradesh continues to be the hotbed of intrigue. The most significant development of the week has been the breakaway faction of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) deciding to merge with the ruling Samajwadi Party. Speaker Kesrinath Tripathi accorded recognition to the 37-member breakaway BSP group and allowed its merger with the Samajwadi Party. Now, the SP strength has gone up to a comfortable 181 in the 401-member Assembly. To win the vote of confidence, the requirement is 202.

The newly installed Chief Minister, Mulayam Singh Yadav, is now quite confident of winning the vote of confidence on September 8. Yadav no longer requires the subtle backing from the Bharatiya Janata Party. Yadav was able to become Chief Minister for the third time because the BJP opted not to put any hurdles in his way as it was not ready for early Assembly elections in the State.

There are perhaps six more MLAs who are ready to switch over to the SP. The BSP, which has so far enjoyed the status of the main Opposition party, would now be relegated to the third position.

While the suspense over the strength of the rebel BSP members had prevailed for the past several days, developments took a dramatic turn on Sept 6 when 37 BSP MLAs drove to the Assembly to meet the Speaker Tripathi. Rajender Singh Rana, the BSP MLA from Deoband handed over a letter to Tripathi claiming that on August 26 the MLAs led by him had formed a separate group, fed up with the “dictatorial style” of the former Chief Minister, Mayawati. She was used to “misbehaving” with the MLAs, the letter added. The splinter group with more than one-third of the total number of BSP MLAs satisfies the anti-defection law and can legally be recognised as a separate party to be known as the Loktantrik Bahujan Dal.

The latest developments are likely to bring a qualitative change in the State politics in the State. With the addition of the BSP splinter group, Mulayam Singh Yadav can now afford to function more independently. He does not have to worry about the BJP support or the lack of Congress interest in joining his Ministry.

In a related development, Mulayam Singh Yadav has constituted his Council of Ministers on Sept 6, inducting six members, two days ahead of the trust vote on the floor of the Assembly. The Governor administered the oath of office and secrecy to Azam Khan, Shiv Pal Singh Yadav, Anuradha Chaudhary, Kokab Hamid, Kusum Rai and Rajbeer Singh, at a simple ceremony at the Raj Bhavan. Two each from the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Rashtriya Kranti Party were inducted as Cabinet members. The strength of the Ministry stands at seven, including the Chief Minister. Mulayam Singh later said the burden of work forced him to induct more Ministers. Asked about the next expansion, he said he would induct more Ministers after proving his majority on the floor of the House.

The Congress is still in a dilemma on joining the Mulayam government. It is tempted to join hands with the BSP to take the benefit of the dalit (low caste) vote in the ensuing Assembly elections later this year.

In the entire political drama of the past two weeks, it is the BSP that has been worst affected as its leader Mayawati has been unable to hold on to her flock. The state of politics in Uttar Pradesh being what it is, many BSP MLAs did not see any advantage in sticking to Mayawati after she lost power. The BSP chief Mayawati is obviously furious and blaming NDA convener George Fernandes and BJP leaders Pramod Mahajan, Rajnath Singh and Lalji Tandon, for the fall of her government. Significantly she did not blame the entire BJP, but “a particular group” which had a hand in the formation of the Mulayam Singh government. This was seen by observers as an attempt not to totally antagonize the top BJP leadership and keep the option of a patch-up later at the time of elections, if she did not find that any national party was keen on tying up with her.



BJP blowing hot and cold

Meanwhile, after remaining undecoded for some time, the BJP has finally decided to issue a whip to its MLAs in Uttar Pradesh to vote against the confidence motion to be moved by Chief Minister in the Assembly on September 8. The decision to issue the whip was taken at a meeting of the BJP top brass, including Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani and party president M Venkaiah Naidu in Delhi, prabhari (in-charge) for the BJP state unit Kalraj Mishra said.

“We have decided to play the role of a responsible and constructive Opposition. In case the Mulayam Singh government falls we will not make any attempt to form an alternative government,” Mishra said.

Inside sources revealed that the party was divided over the issue with a section warning the central leadership that some rebel BJP MLAs may openly support Mulayam. Other BJP leaders hold that the party cannot be soft on Mulayam when it has to play the role of an aggressive Opposition to regain its electoral base as a Hindutva (Hindu activism) party. A section of the BJP had favoured not to issue any whip and leave it to the party legislators’ conscience to support or oppose Yadav.

Mayawati’s recent bid to show that her political ties with Prime Minister Vajpayee and Deputy Prime Minister Advani were intact did not reportedly impress the BJP leaders, who said she should not expect the party to forgive her so soon. They said Mayawati was probably regretting that she had acted in haste and that Mulayam had taken advantage of the situation.

A majority of BJP leaders expected Mayawati to seek their party’s help before the Lok Sabha polls, as she would find the Mulayam government’s drive against her unbearable. “In any case,” said a BJP leader, “we must watch her moves in the Assembly polls to be held in four states and see whether she helps the Congress.”



Analysis

Observers say in the weird political situation, it will not come as a great surprise if in the not too distant future, the BSP and the BJP come together again to fight the common rivals like the SP and the Congress.

The BJP has been watching the changing stance of Mayawati. After venting her initial fury at the BJP and blaming the BJP leadership for the fall of the coalition government, she has claimed that both Prime Minister Vajpayee and his Deputy Advani wanted her government in Uttar Pradesh to continue but a section of the BJP, close to the Prime Minister, forced him to bring about her downfall. What surprise political observers is the sudden softening of her stand towards the BJP.

Analysts say the political message is more than clear. That she is shifting from her track of anti-BJPism also became clear when Mayawati said there was no basis for media speculation that she was moving closer to the Congress. The BJP is thus watching carefully the changing scenario and will not do anything hasty that will push the BSP into the Congress arms. At one stage, Mayawati and her other party leaders were dropping hints that the BSP would work against the BJP and ally with a secular formation led by the Congress.

The change in her attitude seems to have come after she realised that the Congress was keeping the options of allying either with the BSP or with Samajwadi Party, open. Now that the Congress has declared support to Yadav she has decided to keep the door open for the BJP. By adopting this stance, Mayawati would have the option of choosing any of the two fronts - one led by the Congress and the other by the BJP. Since no one doubts her large mass following, both the camps may find the BSP politically suitable.

At stake for both the Congress and the BJP is the larger national objective. In the age of coalition politics, when no party can form a government on its own, parties like the BSP become very important. In India, the low castes, which the BSP represents, have the advantage of numbers. They therefore, become an important vote bank which is coveted by the BJP as well as the Congress. Mayawati may be out as Chief Minister, but certainly not as a national player.