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Uttar Pradesh : its significance in national politics |
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In the normal course, elections to the U.P. Assembly are due only early next year, but the political slope on which the NDA seems to have put its feet on is making a large section within the BJP restive. In more senses than one, Uttar Pradesh was the most important contributor to the rise of the BJP in the late eighties and through the nineties. The just concluded elections have confirmed that there are large segments of the Indian electorate which are not enamoured of the BJP. After the UP poll, the BJP will have to face elections in Punjab and Gujarat, in both of which it is not doing too well. This makes the U.P. elections all the more crucial for the BJP. For it is widely accepted in party circles that if the BJP fails to regain Uttar Pradesh, the Vajpayee Government will be under threat and the general election could be expected in mid-2002. On the other hand, if it retains the state, the BJP-led government at the Centre could expect to complete its full tenure.
The immediate issue confronting the BJP is whether to prepone elections in Uttar Pradesh. There are many who support early elections, perhaps some time before the year closes. One reason for this is that the VHP (Vishwa Hindu Parishad), the fundamentalist wing of the RSS, is all set to revive its clamour for a Ram temple at the disputed site in Ayodhya in February 2002. The VHP had set a one-year deadline for the Vajpayee Government to remove the hurdles in the path of temple construction. This meant that the Government should introduce a legislation in Parliament for the purpose. If this was not done, the VHP had warned, it would lay siege to Ayodhya in February 2002 on the occasion of the Hindu festival of Shivaratri. The BJP feels that the VHP is already on a confrontation course.
Such a scenario could create a major law and order problem for the UP Government. In any case, Ayodhya is not an issue that the BJP wants to cash in on since it would be counter-productive for two reasons. Those who support the temple issue will ask why with a BJP Government at the Centre and in UP, the temple has not been built. As for those opposed to it, the confrontation that temple construction would result in, would alienate them further.
The other consideration weighing in favour of holding early elections, is the assessment that Chief Minister Rajnath Singh has managed to retrieve some of the ground that the BJP had lost during his predecessor, Ram Prakash Gupta’s tenure. The Chief Minister has also managed to keep the RSS on its right side and ensure that at least a majority of its cadre works for the BJP. The BJP is also afraid of a possible alliance between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party.
Congress strategy
Not surprisingly, the Congress is also gearing for the electoral battle in Uttar Pradesh. The meeting of the Congress Working Committee (CWC) that took place on May 28, dealt with many issues, including the outcome of the recent Assembly elections. Considerable time was spent on Uttar Pradesh. The party appears to have realised its limitations and has, therefore, set a limited target of capturing 40 to 60 seats in the 425 member House to enable it to play the role of a kingmaker. The Congress strategy is to deny the BJP control of the state.
Much chastened by that disastrous bid to overthrow the NDA Government and form an alternative one, the Congress central leadership has this time round decided to keep its cards close to its chest and refrain partymen from getting overexcited and bullish about their prospects at the Centre.
Thus it was not without reason that immediately after the Assembly poll results, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, along with other senior party leaders, decided to focus her attention on Uttar Pradesh where the party’s fortunes are presently at their lowest. It was also not without reason that Mrs. Gandhi in her opening remarks at last week’s CWC meeting reiterated that the “consolidation of secular forces remained the principal priority of the party”.
The Congress focus on Uttar Pradesh is not only an admission that it is down and out in the State; it is also a realisation that the Congress cannot hope to come to power at the Centre without being on a strong wicket there. And her immediate aim of uniting secular forces, apart from sending the right signals to other like-minded opposition parties, is also meant to silence the more vocal Congressmen who have been calling for a more hawkish approach vis-a-vis the NDA Government.
As party spokesman Jaipal Reddy points out, “the Congress is in a consolidation mode right now, be the Tamil Maanila Congress in Tamil Nadu or Trinamul in West Bengal... Our goal for the time being is to play the lead role in bringing all pan-Congress and secular forces on one platform.’’
But then why is the Congress so overcautious? Part of the answer lies in the bitter experience of March, 1999 since the numbers in the Lok Sabha aren’t adding up this time too. But there is also another, perhaps more important, factor, which Congress leaders are obviously wary of admitting - the acceptability (or lack of it) of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi as the leader of any alternative formation.
So the Congress would rather bide its time and watch the NDA Government continue till it is ‘’thoroughly discredited’’. ‘’We are in no hurry to topple this lameduck government which has failed on all fronts... but at the same time if this government falls on its own we will not stand and watch,” says Madhavrao Scindia, the party’s Deputy Leader in the Lok Sabha.
The only hurdle in the party’s so-called consolidation of secular forces is the fact that its alliance with the Trinamul has led to a distancing from the Left parties. With the Left leaning more towards the People’s Front and the Samajwadi Party, the earlier coordination and bonhomie between the two parties, especially when it comes to chalking out a joint strategy or offensive against the NDA Government in Parliament, could be missing.
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