Uttar Pradesh Elections:BJP’s strong come-back, alarm bells in the Congress,Indian Politics, News Analysis, India News Online

With exit polls and mid-poll surveys at the end of the third phase of polling predicting major gains for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), catapulting the party to second place in the electoral hustings in Uttar Pradesh, just behind Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and ahead of Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP), alarm bells have started ringing in the Congress over the prospect of the saffron party again becoming a major stakeholder in the country’s most populous state. BJP leaders are already saying that their party’s improved performance in Uttar Pradesh will be a significant step towards regaining power at the Centre in the Lok Sabha elections to be held in two years’ time.

If the exit and opinion poll projections come true, there would not be much to cheer for the Congress. The party has not been able to add much to its performance in the last Assembly elections in 2002 when it won 25 seats. The party is not expected to add more than 10 seats to its previous tally despite the effort of Rahul Gandhi, Amethi MP and son of Congress president Sonia Gandhi, to rally the youth behind the party. Observers say that Rahul Gandhi joined the battle too late, though he has been campaigning vigorously since then and his road-shows have drawn good response. But how much the public response was because of the people’s curiosity to have a look at the Congress party’s ‘future hope’, and how much the people were genuinely interested in the Congress coming back in the state remains to be seen.

Mayawati emerging clear winner

The Congress campaign targeting the Muslim votebank of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party has resulted in significant gains for the BSP as well as the BJP. The splitting of the Muslim votebank, combined with Mayawati’s effort to woo the upper castes, especially the Brahmin community and the lower OBCs, appears to be paying rich dividends to the BSP. The BJP also appears to be gaining from its effort to gain the support of the OBCs, combined with the division in the Muslim votebank.

An opinion post-poll survey by the Indian Express-CNN-IBN-CSDS, conducted after the first three phases of the seven-phase polling in the Assembly elections, indicates that the BSP is set to emerge as the front runner. The survey indicates that while the elections will result in another hung Assembly, the BSP may become the only serious contender for government formation.

The survey shows that the picture has changed significantly since the pre-poll surveys when it appeared to be like a two-horse race between the SP and the BSP, with the BJP and the Congress falling off the chart.

According to the latest survey, the BSP is likely to secure 28 per cent of the votes polled so far in the three phases. The BJP has improved its position in the last one month to reach 23 per cent and the Samajwadi Party has slipped behind to 22 per cent votes. The Congress trails way behind with only nine per cent votes so far. Compared with the situation in the Assembly elections of 2002, the BSP has gained six per cent votes at the cost of everyone else.

A lead of five percentage points over the nearest rival may appear tiny, but in a four-way contest, this could give the BSP a disproportionately large number of seats.

Of the 177 seats where the elections have been held so far, the BSP is likely to win 66-70 seats, about 20 short of the half-way mark. The BJP and the SP lag considerably behind and are likely to win 40-44 seats. The SP has lesser votes than the BJP but its votes are more concentrated. Compared to the performance of various parties in 2002, this represents a major boost for the BSP and a big setback for the SP in some of its strongholds.

The BSP also appears to have humbled Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in its homeland of Western UP. The vote share of RLD may not decline but it may be hard put to retain its seats in the absence of any alliance. The Congress does not appear to have broken through its stagnation. Smaller forces like the Jan Morcha have not left much of an impression in this election so far.

If there is one big loser in the last one month, it is clearly the incumbent Samajwadi Party, which appears on its way to being unseated.

Now that the real elections face them, the voters don’t seem to be inclined to vote the ruling party back to power. Mulayam Singh’s personal rating has slipped down by 4 points. More important is the rise in the proportion of those who do not wish to give the incumbent government another chance.

The Yadav voters have remained fairly loyal to him but his hopes of a last-minute consolidation of the Muslim votes have not materialized even in Ruhelkhand. The revolt by Beni Prasad Verma and the BJP’s alliance with Apna Dal has led to a big desertion of Kurmi voters.

The BSP has retained its position indicated by the pre-poll survey and has gained somewhat from the decline of the SP. The BSP has so far secured around one-sixth of the Brahmin vote and about one-tenth of other upper-caste groups. This is a substantial improvement on the past, but is nowhere close to challenging the BJP’s dominance among upper-caste voters.

The BSP is gaining more from the OBC and Muslim votes than from the upper castes. Add to it the unprecedented consolidation of Dalit votes (the figure of 85 per cent Jatavs reporting to have voted for BSP must be a record of sorts in votebank politics), and you begin to see the magic of the BSP.

The BJP is no longer off the chart. What has helped the BJP is the success of its social and political coalition. The return of Kalyan Singh has meant the return of the Lodh votes. And the alliance with Apna Dal has resulted in an extra-ordinary swing in Kurmi votes in favour of the BJP.

There isn’t much good news for the Congress, except that Rahul Gandhi’s popularity is growing slowly, but too slowly to be of much use in this election. His popularity has not yet crossed a threshold where he could convert it into votes for the Congress.

If this pattern applies to the remaining four phases of the elections, the BSP could end up with around 150-160 seats, and be the first claimant for forming the government. The SP and the BJP could struggle to get into three digits. The BJP could end up with 95-105 seats and the SP fall short of the three-figure mark.

The Congress could be headed for a tally of around 25-30 seats, not very different from what it had last time, but crucial to the formation of the next government.

The BSP has to cross many hurdles before it can turn these projections into a reality. The BJP looks forward to the sixth phase where it would expect the Apna Dal factor to make a big difference. The Samajwadi Party would seek to repeat its strong show in the last two elections in the constituencies that go to polls today, April 23. The Congress, too, is hoping to gain in the fifth round when the Gandhi family’s strongholds go to the polls.

Exit poll after third phase

The findings of the Indian Express poll survey are broadly in line with the trends thrown up in the exit polls conducted after the third phase of the polling on April 18. The exit polls predicted that the BJP appears set to stage a significant recovery in the Assembly elections, and that its alliance with Apna Dal and JDU could end up pipping SP to the second spot behind the BSP.

While the four separate exit polls conducted by Times Now, Star News, NDTV and India TV, varied widely in their forecast of how many seats each of the major contenders would win in the third phase, all agreed that BJP and its NDA allies would do better than in 2002.

The two that made projections for the entire state based on these polls also suggested that SP is likely to slip to No.3 while the BSP would finish as the single largest party, but with barely over one-third of the seats in the 403-member House.

If the polls are right, this would be a very significant development given the fact that Wednesday’s polling took place in districts with large Muslim populations, which were regarded as favourable territory of SP.

The Times Now-Hansa poll suggested that both BJP and BSP would gain significantly at the expense of SP and others compared with the 2002 results in the third phase. It projected that BSP would win from 10 to 14 seats, up from 9 in 2002, while the BJP alliance could win 14-18 seats against 12 in 2002.

The NDTV exit poll placed Chief Minister Mulayam Singh, whose party has its core support base among Muslims, in the third position in areas dominated by the community.

It predicted 35-45 seats for the Congress and 10-20 for other groups in case the voting swing remained the same throughout. The exit poll put the BJP at the top in the third phase, during which 57 constituencies went to the polls, predicting 20-24 seats for the saffron party, 15-19 for the BSP, 10-14 for the SP and its allies and 4-8 for the Congress.

The BJP won the maximum 27.6 per cent of the vote share, followed by the BSP (24.5), the SP (23.5), the Congress (15.1) and others (9.3), the poll showed.

An exit poll by Star News predicted 138 seats for the BSP, 107 for the BJP and its allies, 93 for the SP, 27 for the Congress and 38 for others.

Its projections from Wednesday’s polling in 57 constituencies gave the BJP the maximum number of 20 seats followed by the BSP with 17, the SP (12) and the Congress (4) and others (4).

An India TV-C Voter exit poll showed the SP securing 23-27 seats, the BJP 13-17, the BSP 11-15 and the Congress two-six from Wednesday’s voting.

Congress leaders for mid-course correction

With the BJP showing an unexpected surge after the third phase of polling, Congress leaders are thinking of a mid-course correction in the party’s election strategy. A section of the Congress central leadership is also of the view that the party should start going after the BJP more than the Samajwadi Party now.

“The SP is clearly on its way out and increasingly losing ground with the BJP poised to hit number two position behind the BSP; it will be more prudent for us to promote the BJP as the principal target of our onslaught,” said a senior AICC functionary.

The Congress leader said, “The BJP’s bid to polarise the UP voters on communal lines through its hard-hitting Hindutva campaign, as evidenced by its hate-Muslim campaign CDS doing the rounds in the state, seems to have been working to its advantage.” A measure of success for its “back-to-basics” Hindutva plank could be gauged by the “perceived startling gains made by the BJP in areas marked by significant Muslim population,” he said adding, “it clearly indicates that polarisation is taking place as planned by the BJP.”

Much before the run-up to the UP polls, the Congress consistently trained its guns on Mulayam Singh Yadav’s party, sniping occasionally at the BJP and treating the BSP with kid-gloves for a possible post-poll scenario when the two parties might have to do business.

The consequences of the parties swinging fortunes on the UP battleground also indicate that the Congress might be again losing ground on all sides. Despite the much-hyped party campaign involving Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra, its widespread perception as an also-ran could dissuade even interested sections from wasting their ballots on a “lost cause.”

NDA hopeful of near-majority

While the exit polls and opinion surveys are predicting that the BSP will come up at top in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the NDA is claiming that it will win a near-majority in the state. Janata Dal (United) president Sharad Yadav said in New Delhi on April 19, “we are currently in a neck and neck fight with the BSP, but soon we will be ahead of our rival.” Forecasting a Samajwadi Party rout, Yadav said criminal elements have gone out of sight, thanks to the stringent steps taken by the Election Commission. He complimented the Election Commission on ensuring that the people were able to vote without any fear of “goondas”.

——————————box——————-

Vajpayee to join Election Campaign

With reports of an unexpected BJP upsurge, the party’s star campaigner, former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, has decided to join the campaign trail. He will address public meetings in Lucknow on April 25 and would also be in the city to cast his vote on April 28.

BJP leaders are hopeful that Vajpayee’s presence in the electoral arena will help stop the drift of the Brahmins towards the BSP. Brahmin votes account for the largest chunk of single caste votes in central UP areas which go to the polls on April 28 and can influence the outcome in over two dozen assembly constituencies.

The Vajpayee factor is also likely to entice some sections of Muslims to vote for the BJP. The former Prime Minister enjoys significant following among a section of the Muslims - especially those from the Shia community that ruled Oudh region of central UP for centuries and is concentrated in and around Lucknow.

BJP sources indicated that Vajpayee gave his consent for the key Assembly election campaign when he was informed that the party was likely to perform beyond expectations after the third phase of polling.

“We told him that the party stood a good chance of emerging in the lead with some additional help in the remaining rounds of polling due in Awadh and Bhojpur regions of the State,” said a senior party leader.

Sangh Parivar works for BJP

BJP leaders say that the RSS put in a lot of planning and effort into reviving the party’s fortunes in the state. As a senior party leader asked, “Do you think the BJP won Uttarakhand, Punjab and Delhi just like that.” It is the RSS and its network that managed the show from behind the scenes.”

RSS leader Vijay Aggarwal said, “Our task is limited to removing any differences that may be plaguing the Sangh Parivar at the district level and activating the party workers.”

About 90 RSS workers from all over the country are touring the state to ensure that the Sangh Parivar stays together.

“The VHP is also doing its bit for “Parivar’s” unity by holding dharam sammelans at religious places such as Ayodhya, Varanasi, Vrindavan and Haridwar, where Hindu saints appeal to people to support the BJP. Their aim is to win the Kurmis and the non-Yadav backwards - that is, lower castes that are not aligned with Mayawati’, said VHP convener Purushottum Naraian Singh.

Controversy over Rahul Gandhi’s remarks

Rahul Gandhi’s remarks on April 15, listing the 1971 break up of Pakistan among the achievements of the Nehru-Gandhi family, created controversy both within the country and across the border. The Pakistan Foreign Office said, “Rahul Gandhi’s statement validates the point that India has always been trying to interfere in Pakistan’s internal affairs and to destabilise Pakistan.” Foreign Office spokesperson Tasnim Aslam said, “it is a clear admission of this by a prominent member of India’s ruling family and of the party that is ruling now.”

Within the country also, the BJP, the CPI and the Samajwadi Party criticised Rahul Gandhi’s remarks.

The Amethi MP’s latest controversial remarks at Badaun during the ongoing Assembly elections, came weeks after his remarks on the Babri Masjid demolition when he said that the structure would not have been demolished had a member of the Nehru-Gandhi family been in office at the time.

“I belong to the family which has never moved backwards, which has never gone back on its words. You know that when any member of my family had decided to do anything, he does it. Be it the freedom struggle, the division of Pakistan or taking India to the 21st century,’’ Gandhi said, addressing a public meeting at Badaun during his “Jan Sampark” programme for the UP Assembly elections.

BJP leader Vijay Kumar Malhotra said Rahul Gandhi was insulting all the freedom fighters by crediting his family alone for the country’s independence.

He charged that Gandhi had shown disrespect to Mahatma Gandhi, Sardar Patel, Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose and other freedom fighters.

CPI national secretary D. Raja suggested that instead of raking up historical issues on which he “obviously has no grasp,’’ he should take up current issues.

Samajwadi Party general secretary Amar Singh said that Gandhi was “trying hard to find a niche for himself.’’

Congress spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi, however, said the statement should be viewed holistically and not torn out of context.

He said there were three elements to the statement: one was the undeniable contribution of the Nehru family to the freedom struggle, along with the titans, such as Mahatma Gandhi and Sardar Patel; the fact that Rajiv Gandhi introduced the idiom of modernisation way back in the mid-eighties was equally undeniable; Rahul Gandhi was only trying to remind the electors of the victory over Pakistan under the leadership of Indira Gandhi in 1971 - the triumph not only made India proud but led to much of the Opposition hailing Indira Gandhi as “Durga incarnate.’’

India News Online » News Analysis » Indian Politics »