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Uttar Pradesh : Crucial for NDA prospects |
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The Muslim vote is most important in Uttar Pradesh which historically has always played a major role in determining who will rule in Delhi. The state has also produced the maximum number of Prime Ministers.
Although the exit polls have given some confidence to the BJP-led alliance, they have also indicated that the gap between the NDA and the Congress is narrowing. Of course, one consolation for the BJP is that none of the polls has predicted that the Congress-led front will form the next government. Interestingly, the poll surveys have also given confidence to the Left parties, which have begun to talk of an alternative front anticipating a 1996-like situation, i.e. a Hung Parliament.
The stakes are high for all the players. The BJP needs more Lok Sabha seats from UP to rule in Delhi. Observers say SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav wants to be either king or king-maker. BSP chief Mayawati will be finished if she does not ensure a good showing, both personally and politically. For the Congress, it is a do-or-die situation. As a last ditch effort, the Congress has launched Rahul Gandhi (son of Sonia Gandhi) from Amethi and he is drawing good response in other areas of UP too.
The state has 80 Lok Sabha seats. Going by the current political assessment, the ruling Samajwadi Party seems to be number one, followed by BJP and the BSP while the Congress is a poor fourth. The four-cornered contest has made it all the more difficult for any party to win a majority of seats with the result that both the SP and the BJP are aiming to cross at least the 30-seat mark.
The current assessment is that the BJP may struggle to retain its present 29, while the SP is confident of improving its position to at least 35 seats. The Congress’ fortunes are still hanging in balance and the best-case scenario it can hope for is to get about 10 seats. It is a calculated move on the part of Prime Minister Vajpayee and Defence Minister Fernandes to talk of a “similarity in thinking” with Mulayam Singh Yadav. In the post-poll scenario, if the NDA’s present allies do not fare well, the BJP may have to court the Samajwadi Party.
Although the multi-cornered contest is expected to benefit the BJP, it cannot take things for granted. It has indulged in social engineering, getting its erstwhile backward class leader, Kalyan Singh, back into its fold. A battery of top BJP leaders ranging from Pramod Mahajan, Kalyan Singh, Rajnath Singh besides, Sushma Swaraj have also been drafted for the campaign and all those in the neighbouring states moved to UP for electioneering. Besides, Vajpayee and Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani too will pitch in.
The Congress too is worried about its fortunes despite all the brave talk. Sonia Gandhi herself expressed this worry in an interview when she said the party does not know how to encash the goodwill into votes. Rahul Gandhi’s entry has electrified Congress workers to a large extent and the Gandhi siblings’ campaigning may boost the morale of the party. However, that is not going to be enough as the question of getting the voters to the polling booth still remains a worry because booth management is one of the weak spots of the Congress. The most important problem is the lack of leadership at the state level. Apart from Sonia Gandhi, no one has campaigned.
As far as the Lucknow Parliamentary constituency is concerned, the Congress continues to face some problems. Former Union Law Minister Jethmalani’s candidature has given rise to some discontentment in the local Congress leadership and a senior party leader, Amar Rizvi, has taken the stand that he will not support Jethmalani and has gone to the extent of even meeting the PM. There are other discontented elements which may go with him. Factionalism is at its height. While the Muslims are said to be a little disenchanted with Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, the Congress has not been able to take advantage of it.
As far as the SP and the BSP are concerned, their interests are always confined to UP. Both Mulayam Singh and former Chief Minister Mayawati have toured the state extensively. While Mulayam is depending on Muslim and Yadav votes, Mayawati is sure of her Dalit (low caste) and some Muslim votes.
The Samajwadi Party (SP), however, appears to have a problem with the Muslims. It all started with a newspaper advertisement. The advertisement has drawn parallels between the sacrifices made by Hazrat Imam Hussein, the grandson of Prophet Mohammed, with Mulayam’s. It says: “How can members of the minority community, who still cherish the 1,400-year-old Karbala tragedy, forget the `sacrifices’ made by Mulayam Singh Yadav.”
Understandably, Shia clerics and other religious leaders of the community have attacked the SP for making this comparison. And this has made it more difficult for the party to dispel the impression that it is getting closer to the BJP.
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