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Uttar Pradesh : CM Mayawati’s fate hangs in balance

	November 11, 2002

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati has not yet lost the hope of surviving the present political crisis with a determined Samajwadi Party (SP) leader, Mulayam Singh Yadav, trying to rope in the dissident MLAs in the BJP and even the BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party). More than any ideological differences, money power seems to be in full play. What is still keeping the MLAs from indulging in open revolt is the fear of disqualification which would result in Mayawati surviving any test of strength in the Assembly. While the Central leadership of the BJP is trying to discipline the party MLAs so that the coalition could survive, Governor Vishnu Kant Shastri has invited criticism from the SP for not calling a session of the House for a majority test and maintaining that the CM enjoyed majority. The target of SP ire is the Governor. The frustration of the SP is understandable as time is running out and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi is still not pledging the support of her party to help Mulayam form an alternative government in UP if the present BSP-BJP coalition collapses.

SP general secretary Amar Singh is backed by CPI-M leader H.S. Surjeet to destabilize the Government. But the Governor may prove the biggest stumbling block. Shastri has stated that no ruling combine legislators had given him letters of withdrawal of support. Shastri has also pointed out that though some Independent and BJP legislators and a BSP MLA had met him to express their grievances against the Mayawati-led Government, no one had given him in writing that they were pulling out.

The Samajwadi Party has demanded recall of the Governor alleging that he had turned a “blind eye” to the political developments in the State. A party delegation would soon meet President Abdul Kalam to press their demand. The SP leaders also demanded an inquiry by a sitting High Court judge into the cases filed against dissident MLAs and claimed that the Mayawati Government had been reduced to a minority after 12 BJP legislators expressed lack of faith in her leadership. The SP alleged that the Government was trying to create fear psychosis by filing cases against the dissidents and said one of them, Puran Singh Bundela, MLA from Lalitpur, was coerced to return to the BJP fold.



Infighting within the BJP

Meanwhile, striking a conciliatory tone, senior BJP leader Lalji Tandon has offered to resign from the post of Leader of the BJP Legislature Party provided the dissident legislators dropped their other demands and returned to the party fold.

The dissident legislators, who had formed “Save BJP Committee”, had demanded Tandon’s resignation from the post of BJP Legislature Party Leader. They are also demanded that all BJP ministers resign and the party support the Mayawati Government from outside. Another demand was the withdrawal of criminal cases against BJP and Independent legislators.

Tandon said he was waiting for a directive from the party High Command and when he got any signal, he would immediately convene a meeting of the Legislature Party and himself would propose the name of a new leader. Whosoever was elected, Tandon said he would accept him as the Legislature Party leader.

Tandon denied the dissidents’ charge that he was responsible for dropping the names of some of their colleagues from the proposed list of ministers at the time of last month’s Cabinet expansion. The rebels are accusing Tandon of ignoring some of the rightful claims for Cabinet berths.

Tandon, however, brushed aside reports of discontent and has said there was no crisis in the party and termed the ongoing political stalemate a “mere misunderstanding and lack of communication” among the leaders. Some of the dissidents now wanted to return to the party fold but were looking for an honourable settlement, he claimed. Tandon also alleged that the Samajwadi Party was trying to engineer defections in the BJP ranks.



Social engineering fails

Observers are of the opinion that the recent happenings in the State suggest that the social groups which the BJP had sought to bring together with an eye to the future are coming unstuck. A saffron zealot like Vinay Katiyar, was appointed as the state unit chief to arrest the perceived erosion of the BJP’s “backward” caste support in the wake of former Chief Minister Kalyan Singh’s departure and to checkmate the consolidation of that group around Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP. The alliance with the BSP was struck to keep the Dalits (Scheduled Caste Hindus) on the BJP’s side. These calculations assumed that the party’s upper caste appeal would remain unaffected.

The events of the past week suggest, however, that this underlying assumption may be in need of amendment. The rebel BJP legislators are mostly from the Rajput camp. The party’s Central leadership first despatched general secretary Rajnath Singh to Lucknow to cajole his fellow caste-men not to let the side down. When that did not work, former BJP chief Kushabhau Thakre was mobilised to gain the same objective. But not to much avail.

The problem in UP is a little more deeprooted than the propensity for horse-trading among legislators. The BJP and the BSP represent the aspirations of two different social groups. The BSP is the voice of the Dalits. The BJP has traditionally drawn its support from the upper castes. There exists no common ground between these two social forces. Yet, a commonality has been forged, and the driving force behind that was the sharing of office and power. The BJP-BSP alliance is not based on any shared principles.

The BJP has made some moves to step out of its support mould by appointing a backward leader like Vinay Katiyar as the party president in UP to woo the other backward classes, the major constituency of Yadav. But the lure of office is breaking down many of the accepted stereotypes. Many of the BJP legislators who have openly expressed their dissent against the existing dispensation are from the upper castes. These rebels have not responded positively to the appeals made by their caste brethren from within the higher echelons of the BJP.

The disappointment at not being made ministers is prevailing over caste loyalties and the demands of party discipline and hierarchy.



Role of Governor

When Governor V.K. Shastri ignored the custom of calling upon the largest party in the legislature to form a government, his explanation was that the step may not ensure stability. The reason was that the outfit in question - the Samajwadi Party - did not have a majority on its own. So, in his search for stable governance - a laudable objective in itself - Shastri invited the BSP and the BJP to form the government. But if anything has eluded this favoured alliance of the Governor, it is stability. Not only that, it is now clear that even if the alliance tides over its present difficulties, its future is not too bright, observers point out.

It would have been better for the BJP to have sat in the opposition. Having come third in the list of winners, the BJP need not have grabbed power through the backdoor. After its earlier courtship of the BSP having collapsed, it is no surprise that yet another collapse is staring the BJP in the face. More than the murky goings-on in UP, what is hurting the BSP and the BJP the most is not only their crude politicking but also their failure to rule. As Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani has said more than once, it isn’t ideology - either Dalit emancipation or Hindutva (Hindu chauvinism) - which boosts the prospects of a party so much as its ability to govern. It is the BSP’s and the BJP’s failure on this count which may be eroding their influence.