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Uttar Pradesh civic elections : Wake up call for Mulayam

	November 13, 2006

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which did not contest the state-wide civic elections in Uttar Pradesh, has declared victory in the polls held earlier this month. Though the BSP did not contest the local body polls, the party claims that a majority of the Independents who won the Nagar Panchayat race belonged to it. In the case of municipalities, the party is claiming a figure of 20 out of 48. The numbers are a huge lead over the last polls.



Claiming the support of the bulk of Independents, BSP legislature party chief S.P. Maurya said, “they belong to us. The presence of such a large number of Independents shows that they could win by cashing in on the name of Kanshi Ram, who passed away recently, and Mayawati, though we did not officially declare them to be our candidates.”



That the BSP - the Independents it backed - made a dent in urban pockets shows that it was able to “harness the upper castes’ longing in favour of the party”, Maurya said. He also defended the decision not to give tickets for the civic polls, saying the move would have “unnecessarily created bad blood among ourselves”.



The success of Independents brought more parties rushing to own them. The BJP “claimed a share” of these winners, as did the ruling Samajwadi Party, which said at least 10 per cent of them were its rebel candidates.



“We don’t agree that most of them (Independents) belonged to the BSP. We don’t see our strength weakening ,” said Samajwadi Party leader Shivpal Singh Yadav.



Of the 12 municipal corporations in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP won eight, the Congress three and the Samajwadi Party one.



Observers say that while the BSP and the Bharatiya Janata Party may have something to cheer about the results of the civic polls, seen as the battle rehearsal before the war expected in next year’s Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, they are a warning to both the Samajwadi Party, which is ruling in the state, and the Congress, which is in power at the Centre. Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav’s attempts to win over voters with announcement of doles and development schemes appears to have come a cropper. The Sonia Gandhi-Rahul stewardship appears to have failed to revive the Congress fortunes in the state; the party’s losing the civic poll in Amethi, its stronghold, shows that it has fallen way short of cobbling together a social combination to signal a recovery in the Assembly elections due early next year.



Talks of a revival stared with Sonia Gandhi’s landslide victory in Rae Bareli, after the party supremo’s resignation in the aftermath of the office-of-profit controversy. Handled personally by Rahul and Priyanka, it was felt the bypoll victory was a sign of things to come.



The Congress hopes of a revival hinged on wooing back the upper castes, especially Brahmins, and wresting a section of Muslims from SP’s vice-like grip. Observers say the Congress is stuck. While it managed to win the mayoral polls in Bareily, Jhansi and Allahabad, indications are, there is no commensurate increase in corporators or small towns to suggest a revival beyond the personal clout of candidates.





Shot in the arm for the BJP



While Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party disputes the view that it has been the prime loser in the civic elections, there is no doubt that the election results have come as a shot in the arm for the BJP. The party’s unexpected revival in the state, signalled by almost two-thirds majority in corporation elections, has established party president Rajnath Singh’s political authority besides strengthening the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s hold over the party. The RSS itself has expressed happiness at the results and praised Rajnath Singh and former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Kalyan Singh for the party’s victory.





Observers say the RSS had mobilised its cadres in the Uttar Pradesh civic elections like never before. It posted six organizational secretaries to work out strategy over the past six months. The Sangh also loaned two more senior pracharaks, (preachers) Ram Lal and Rakesh Jain, to the BJP two months ago for preparing the groundwork for the coming Assembly elections.



The BJP sees the civic poll results as an indicator of its revived political fortunes in the state. In a statement, Rajnath Singh said, “these results are a clear indicator that BJP is the only viable alternative (to the Samajwadi Party) in the eyes of the public against misrule, corruption, goondaism and communalism.”



Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who was made by the party to campaign in the local body elections for the first time, expressed satisfaction at the BJP performance in the elections, saying the party workers had done their best despite very ‘trying’ circumstances. Observers see the reference to ‘trying’ circumstance as indicating the atmosphere of violence and intimidation created allegedly by the ruling Samajwadi Party. It was an allegation made not only by the BJP, but also the Congress.





Civic poll results : A shocker for Mulayam



The civic poll results have come as a shock for the Samajwadi Party. Only a few hours into the counting of votes on Monday, Nov. 6, Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav cancelled a press conference scheduled in connection with the local body polls.



That underlines why the news in Uttar Pradesh is not just that his ruling Samajwadi Party has suffered a major setback in what is considered a dress rehearsal for the 2007 Assembly elections. The news is also that his party had no inkling of what was coming.



The great socialist disconnect with the ground ensured that Mulayam could not see beyond crowds lapping up the Rs 500 cheques he doled out in unemployment allowance and the Rs 20,000 cheques he doled out under the Kanya Vidya Dhan scheme.



The evidence is clear: even in the Yadav clan’s fiefdom in Mainpuri and Kannauj, and across the Yadav belt in neighbouring districts, Independents supported by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged winners.



In the Mainpuri Nagar Panchayat, falling in the Lok Sabha constituency of Mulayam’s nephew Dharmendra Yadav, BSP backed candidates won four seats while the Congress and BJP won one each. In son Akhilesh Yadav’s Kannauj Nagar Palika, BSP supported Haji Mohammed Raees not only won, but the SP’s candidate Haji Mohammed Naiyum forfeited his deposit.



This anti-incumbency, fostered by worsening law and order and the increasing disenchantment of Muslims, is proving the undoing of the Samajwadi Party.



The Congress has succeeded in splitting the Muslim vote at many places as suggested by its mayoral victories in Bareilly, Allahabad and Jhansi, and the huge fight its Lucknow candidate Manzoor Ahmed put up against the BJP.





BSP chief Mayawati says that her party has been successful in plotting the defeat of the Samajwadi Party in the mayoral elections. Speaking in Lucknow on Nov. 10, she said the BJP won eight mayoral seats and the Congress three because BSP votes were transferred to these parties. Mayawati said this was the outcome of tactical voting to ensure defeat of the Samajwadi Party even if it meant supporting the BJP and the Congress.



Mayawati dismissed the possibility of BSP aligning with any party in next year’s Assembly elections claiming that her party would get absolute majority and form the Government on its own.



Referring to the report of the Central Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes Commission that Uttar Pradesh topped the list of states were the dalits were victimised, Mayawati demanded Chief Minister Mulayam Singh’s resignation. She said if he did not quit on his own, President’s rule should be imposed in the state.



Mualayam Singh Yadav on his part has alleged that the Congress and the BJP are trying to topple his Government. Speaking in Lucknow on Nov. 10, he said these parties had forged an understanding over the issue of toppling the state Government. He criticised the Congress for allegedly misusing the office of the Governor to create a false impression. The Chief Minister lauded the State Election Commission for conducting free and fair civic elections.



Both the Congress and the BJP on Wednesday, Nov. 8, had demanded imposition of President’s rule in Uttar Pradesh. Taking the cue from Governor T. V. Rajeshwar’s report on the civicelections, sent to the Union Home Minister, they alleged rigging of the polls in favour of the ruling party candidates. The Governor is reported to have placed a question mark over the role of the police during the polls, implying that they did not conduct themselves in an impartial manner.



Mixed signals for the Congress



While observers say that the Congress has nothing much to cheer about the civic poll results, the party itself thinks that it has managed to re-emerge as a political factor in Uttar Pradesh. Pradesh Congress president Salman Khurshid told newspersons in New Delhi on Nov. 7, “we are out of the ICU (intensive care unit) and have shifted to the general ward.” Congress president Sonia Gandhi held a meeting in New Delhi to review the civic poll results. Khurshid said the Congress vote share in the elections should be around 20 to 22 percent against 6 per cent last time. He also claimed the backing of some of the Independents who had won. Khurshid and other Congress leaders admitted that the BJP’s resurgence ahead of the Assembly elections was a matter of concern.





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BJP strategy for Assembly elections



Upbeat over success in the UP mayoral elections, the BJP is set to repeat the same strategy - new faces, nomination of grass roots workers and RSS management - in the Assembly elections early next year. Party sources say that the BJP had overcome the incumbency factor by fielding fresh faces for mayoral polls in twelve big cities. Only one of the outgoing mayors had been renominated.



If the BJP repeats this strategy in next year’s Assembly elections, the bulk of the sitting legislators, whose popularity has declined, may not get the party ticket.



The BJP also placed emphasis on putting up ‘genuine’ party workers in the civic elections and working out a caste balance.



Another striking feature of the BJP’s strategy in the civic elections was the active involvement of RSS cadres. Not only the RSS, but the workers of other Sangh Parivar outfits were also roped in. There are indications that the same strategy will be followed in the Assembly elections, and cadres of all Sangh Parivar outfits mobilised to campaign for the party.