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US anti-Taliban campaign : Pak call for role for moderates rejected

	October 29, 2001

In the face of the Taliban showing no signs of handing over Osama bin Laden and his Al-Qaeda associates, the US military campaign seems all set for a long haul. But, as it is, it cannot afford any long-drawn-out attack, and may have to make a pause in the coming weeks mainly for two reasons - the coming holy Muslim month of Ramzan, and the onset of winter when much of Afghanistan becomes snowbound. The US however, is in no mood to call a halt to its attacks during the month of Ramzan as the Pentagon has said the Muslims are on record of having fought wars during the holy month. But, as far as the ongoing winter is concerned, the US military planners are already seized with the problem. However, the US is making every effort to achieve its aim of toppling the Taliban and putting in its place a new transitional government in the next three weeks to overcome these two problems. And for this, it has for the first time started giving air cover to Northern Alliance forces in their advance towards Kabul and in a parallel move, stepped up its efforts to cobble together an interim government with former King Zahir Shah as the rallying point. The newly-appointed UN Ambassador on Afghanistan, Lakhdar Brahimi, has gone to Rome to hold talks with the ex-King. But, the question of involvement of the so-called moderate Taliban in the new dispensation continues to defy solution. Pakistan is the major, rather lone, supporter of the demand for giving the moderate Taliban a share in the next Government and to press its demand it hosted a meeting of some 1500 Afghan clerics, intellectuals, political groups and exiles in Peshawar who in a resolution demanded that the Taliban in its moderate avatar, should not be ignored. At one time, the US was amenable to the demand and an indication of this was given when the US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, visited Islamabad on October 15. But, now, in a congressional hearing, he has made it clear that Pakistan cannot dictate terms in the formation of a new government.

Russia, Iran, and India, which are seen as the major supporters of the Northern Alliance, have all opposed any role for the moderate Taliban and President Putin voiced his opposition when he met President Bush in Shanghai, China, during the APEC summit. He later flew to the Tajikistan capital, Dushanbe, and the leaders of Tajikistan, Russia and the Northern Alliance issued a statement expressing their opposition to any role for the discredited Taliban.

The US’s efforts to rally the Pashtun tribes leader in a future government suffered a setback when the Taliban captured and executed Abdul Haq, a top Opposition leader in exile, who entered the country along with some of his supporters at the behest of Washington.

And as the US air strikes continue, every bomb which misses its targets creates an anti-US opinion across Pakistan, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Last week, a bomb in Herat hit a hospital and the Taliban claims that it killed about one hundred patients, mostly children and the elderly. As the US undeterred by these charges continues its military operations, there are reports of British ground troops being deployed to enter Afghanistan after a successful commando operation inside Kandahar by the US troops.



Air cover to Northern Alliance

With the pressure building on the United States to wrap up its attack on Afghanistan before the onset of harsh winter and the coming holy Muslim month of Ramzan, in a major shift of strategy, the US warplanes have given air cover to the Northern Alliance forces to advance towards Kabul even as they are poised to take control of the strategic northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif.

The US warplanes and jets rained bombs and missiles on the Taliban troops for three successive days which are defending the capital Kabul.These targeted attacks of the Taliban ground forces are directly helping the Northern Alliance which has been bitterly complaining about the deliberate delay by the US in softening up the Taliban. The US delay was caused by lack of clarity on a post-Taliban dispensation and new coordination between the US troops and the Alliance for the ground war suggests not only a sense of urgency to disband the Taliban before the winter sets in, but also that the political process will also be put on the fast track. The new US thinking clearly emerged from what Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld told reporters in Washington: “To the extent that they [the air strikes on the Taliban ground forces on the frontline] happen to be done in a way that advantages the Opposition forces on the ground, all to the better.” At a Press briefing, the Defence Secretary confirmed that the air attacks on the frontline were “clearly to assist” the Northern Alliance so that they could occupy more ground. A Northern Alliance spokesman who disclosed that the US jets struck at Uzbashi, an Al-Qaeda stronghold near the Bagram airbase, said, “God willing,these bombs will let us move into Kabul.” A report in Washington confirmed that the US and Britain are discussing ways to enhance the role of the Northern Alliance possibly in the induction of ground troops. One of the top Northern Alliance commanders, Mohammed Atta, has confirmed that coordination between the Northern Alliance opposition and the US forces has increased in the past six days. Atta said, more than 15 US military officials were with another top opposition commander, Abdul Rashid Dostum in the Dar-e-Souf Valley. Secretary of State Colin Powell said on October 21 that the Northern Alliance is likely to soon “start moving on Kabul more aggressively”. Asked if Kandahar had to fall by winter, he said, “It would be in our interest and the interest of the coalition to see this matter resolved before winter strikes.”

Political compare this with the situation when the US was landing strikes everywhere except where they may help the Northern Alliance and Alliance commanders were calling the US traitors to their ten-year-old battle. All that has changed. For the first time, US forces have attacked the Taliban frontline north of the Afghan capital. Earlier, when the Northern Alliance sought air cover, it was told to wait until the contours of the next government were worked out. The US, which is not ready for heavy casualties of its armymen in any ground war, is trying to take advantage of the only real ally it has on the ground: the loose coalition of ethnic groups which fight under the banner of the Northern Alliance and have been battling the Taliban for years. There is no “Southern Alliance” or coalition of Pashtun tribes in the south that is prepared to take on the Taliban despite the White House’s decision to have the CIA organise a Pashtun resistance. So, certainly, there are sound military reasons to work more closely with the Northern Alliance. In terms of geography, helping the Alliance enables the US to keep the pressure on the Taliban from the North while American Special Forces keep the heat on in the southern part of the country, especially Kandahar, the Taliban’s political base. In terms of military tactics as well, the Northern Alliance plays a useful role. By threatening to attack west towards Mazar-e-Sharif and south towards Kabul, the Alliance has tied down the Taliban’s troops in the north and prompted Taliban leaders to send in reinforcements.

The Alliance is also closing in on the strategic Northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif whose fall could open new supply routes for attacks on Taliban positions nearer to their southern strongholds. Northern Alliance commanders hoped the attack on Mazar-e-Sharif, which lies near the border with Uzbekistan, would be completed within days, but the advance slowed and the Alliance commanders say they have faced fierce counter-attacks. The Northern Alliance forces appear to be stalled about five kilometres to the south of the airport of Mazar-e-Sharif, which lies outside the city. The Alliance Commanders say they have called on Washington to step up US air strikes on the Taliban frontlines to help their troops advance. Military observers say, the capture of Mazar-e-Sharif will be of great strategic importance since it stands on the main route south to Kabul. The city sits astride the main road over the Hindukush and through the Salang Pass to Kabul 430 km away. It has changed hands many times. The Taliban first captured the city in 1997, a year after capturing Kabul.

Russia’s strong support and supplies for the military effort of the Northern Alliance for the capture of Mazar-e-Sharif and Kabul are now for the first time being openly cited by its leadership. And now for the first time, the US is saying that it wants to see the anti-Taliban forces make progress towards Kabul. Putin putting pressure on Bush to support the Northern Alliance during the talks in Shanghai as well as India passing the same message to Colin Powell in New Delhi may have added to this strategy. But, political observers say the real reasons are more pragmatic. The US needs to consolidate on the ground before the winter sets in and clearly the air raids have not changed the ground reality enough to make it safe for US troops to enter. Thus, now the US is falling back on a plan to get the Northern Alliance fight the ground battle. According to the new rules, the Northern Alliance will “lay siege” to key towns such as Kabul but will not enter to “take them”. The latter is in deference to the Pakistani aversion to its enemy and India-ally Northern Alliance coming to power in the capital as a result of capturing the city. But that the US is now agreeable to the Alliance moving into the vicinity of the Afghan capital marks a milestone in the war. Finally, it seems to have dawned on the US that the Northern Alliance is the only group posing a military challenge to the Taliban on the ground.



No respite in attack during Ramzan

Two main reasons for the United States to start giving military backing to the Northern Alliance are the coming winter and the pressure building on it by some Muslim countries, especially Pakistan to suspend the attack during Ramzan which starts on Nov. 17. Although the United States has made it clear to Pakistan that the military campaign which began on Oct. 7, will go on because in the past Muslims themselves have never observed truce during the holy month, officials in Washington say there is no harm if with the help of the Northern Alliance Kabul can be captured before the middle of next month since the Alliance appears reconciled to a smaller role in the next government because of the opposition by Pakistan.

Although the Bush Administration has indicated that it won’t be inhibited by Ramzan in its war campaign, the harsh Afghan winter could be a tougher practical proposition than anger in the Islamic world. “Winter could be a potential Vietnam with snow, as one analyst put it. Accounts from Generals of the former Soviet Union who fought nearly ten Afghan winters, speak of barefoot and lightly clad Mujahideen trudging cheerfully over the snow to battle an army that was itself familiar with harsh conditions, and routing it in the end. The US commanders appear to have factored in a winter war judging from the deployment in Uzbekistan of the 10th Mountain Division, an elite Alphine unit famed for its toughness.

According to one account, even among the various Afghan factions that have bitterly fought since the Soviet eviction, there exists a gentleman’s agreement to lay down weapons during winter. But, the Taliban, which has the most experienced winter warriors, has repeatedly violated the agreement and surprised other factions to gain ground. If the Taliban lasts out a few more weeks, there could be the mother of all winter battles. That is here the US troops will need the Alliance’s experience of the Taliban guerilla war tactics and hence the new coordination.

Ramzan is more of a political problem, US officials have made it clear though that they will not be balked by the Muslim holy month, in the process rejecting Pakistani military leader Pervez Musharraf’s plea to wrap up the campaign before Ramzan. Musharraf, in a CNN interview said the US-led military operation in Afghanistan should end before the advent of the holy month of Ramzan in mid-November. He said if the restraint was not observed during the holy month, it would certainly have some negative effects on the Muslim world. But, the US has virtually rejected Musharraf’s plea for a pause. The Secretary of State said Musharraf should understand that the US mission in Afghanistan will continue. And the Defence Secretary has said, “History is replete with instances where Muslim nations have fought among themselves or with other countries during various important holy days of their religion and it has not inhibited them historically.”

Analysts in Cairo, however, say if the US does not observe a truce, it could create a public relations nightmare for Washington in the Muslim world that would offset any gains its troops might make. Analysts say, continuing the war after Ramzan begins in mid-November would hand Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers and their protege, Osama bin Laden, a propaganda victory, reinforcing stereotypes that present the campaign as a Christian attack on Islam. Although Islamic law does not prohibit warfare during Ramzan, Islamic scholars say, if the US suspends the campaign as a form of courtesy to the religious feelings of Muslims, it may add a little bit of acceptability to the whole campaign. The analysts say Ramzan raids might trigger enormous sympathy for Afghanistan in Muslim countries and spawn huge protest marches. They would also galvanize the Taliban and bin Laden’s warriors, who believe they will win a higher place in paradise if they die during Ramzan. A Cairo-based analyst said, while a suspension of hostilities would be an excellent PR for the West, the continuation of the strikes will surely give bin Laden advantage of the situation to ram the point home that this is a clash between Muslims and Christians.

Some Muslim scholars, however, say Islamic law prohibits fighting in four months of the year, but Ramzan is not one of them. They recall that battles during Ramzan have been common down the ages. They point to the first major victory of Islam at Badr in 624 AD and the conquest of the holy city of Mecca, both conducted during the holy month. Egypt and Syria launched the 1973 war against Israel during Ramzan while Iran and Iraq did not stop fighting during Ramzan in their 1980-88 war.



Attacks on US targets - Hospital hit

Meanwhile, pending the decision on whether to call a halt to the air raids or not during the holy month, during the week under review, the US jets and warplanes continued to hit Taliban targets. The US is unleashing its air power in a manner that was witnessed in the first three days of the strikes. The fresh fury of air strikes comes when the CIA has received official authority from President Bush for undertaking sweeping and covert operations against Osama bin Laden. The CIA has received an extra $1 billion for the job. Lethal operations that were unthinkable pre-Sept. 11 are now under way, a senior Administration official has said. The US planes continued to hit at the targets in Kandahar and elsewhere. They struck an oil depot and a fuel convoy and an asphalt plant in Kandahar. They also bombed a mountain on the western outskirts of Kandahar where Taliban troops were trying to repair a radar station which had been heavily damaged earlier in the air campaign. The US planes launched air raids on Oct. 24 in order to choke off fuel, food and other supplies that the Taliban leaders need to maintain their grip on power. An Afghan doctor, who treated the ten-year old son of the Taliban chief, Mullah Omar, after he was injured in the first day’s air raids on Kandahar, has confirmed that he succumbed to his injuries. Dor Abdul Bari, who escaped to Pakistan, told BBC that Mullah Omar begged him to save his son, but the boy died the same night.

US Defence Secretary Rumsfeld has said all the fixed targets earmarked to be destroyed have been exhausted and in the second phase, Taliban troop concentrations and arms and ammunition dumps are being destroyed. For the first time, some 500 British ground troops, reportedly those which have just ended exercises in Oman, are being deployed. The formidable US airpower had no trouble hitting its targets without much help in the first phase of the campaign, but Britain’s crack Special Air Service [SAS] Regiment and light infantry units from the Royal Marines and Parachute Regiment look set to fight alongside their American allies on the ground. US and British special forces worked together in the 1991 Gulf War behind enemy lines. Formed in World War II to launch covert operations, the SAS won wide acclaim in 1980 when it stormed the Iranian embassy in London to free hostages. The Americans used the SAS model to form the US Delta Force.

There are still no signs of any ground attack being launched. About 100 elite American army rangers penetrated Afghanistan for a few hours on the night of Oct. 19, raiding a command centre used by the Taliban’s supreme leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, in Kandahar, and an airfield in the South. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Richard Myers described the commando operation as a success and disclosed that the raid included a 30-minute exchange of fire between the American commando troops and the Taliban in which two members of the commando force were injured “during the paradrop”.

Together with the British forces, over 2,000 US troops, along with a large fleet of aircraft, have descended on the three airbases of Pakistan, making it the biggest ever US military presence in the country since the late 1950s. The personnel are using the airports of Jacobabad and Pasni as logistical airbases and the airport of Dalbandin, nearest to the Afghan border, as a forward operational base.

The US is, however, seeking Mianwali airport, adjacent to Dera Ismail Khan, instead of using Jacobabad airport because of the demonstrations by Pakistan opponents. At least 50 thousand militants gathered in Karachi on Oct. 26 burning the US flags and effigies of President Bush in the biggest anti-US protest since the bombing of Afghanistan began three weeks ago. The baton wielding police beat back protesters demonstrating against the US military presence in Jacobabad and now the Afghan Defence Council, comprising all religious parties in Pakistan have announced the launching of a civil disobedience movement against President Musharraf from Nov. 1 and vowed to continue the campaign till the General is removed. In another incident, a major disaster was averted at the VIP lounge of Islamabad airport on Oct. 20 when a bomb was found to have been kept in an abandoned briefcase. The bomb disposal squad was called which exploded the device safely.

The US has lost one helicopter in the commando raid. While the Taliban said they shot down the helicopter, the Americans insist it crashed while landing. Taliban officials said their fighters shot down the helicopter with anti-aircraft fire over Baba Sahib mountains, but the Pentagon said two members of the armed forces were killed and three injured when their helicopter supporting the commando raid crashed in Pakistan, thus dismissing the Taliban claim that they shot it down. On the Qatari TV channel Al-Jazeera, the Taliban showed pictures of the wreckage of the US helicopter in Helmand province. The footage showed the landing gear, tyres, metallic pieces and a large casing stamped with the words “Boeing” and “Philadelphia, Pennsylvania” underneath. Taliban Education Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi has said they had found the wreckage of a second US helicopter in the Registan desert of Southern Helmand province. It possibly crashed after being hit during the raid near Kandahar, Muttaqi said. The US again denied losing any helicopter in Afghanistan. US sources are also afraid that some Pakistani jehadi militants may have downed the helicopter.

In one of the air raids on Herat, the Taliban authorities allege that a hospital was hit there killing at least one hundred patients, mostly women, children and old men. The Taliban Ambassador to Pakistan, Abdul Salam Zaeef told newsmen on Oct. 22 that so far more than one thousand innocent Afghan civilians have died in the US attacks. UN sources have also confirmed the US air attack and the US sources have conceded that their warplanes may have made the mistake of hitting a senior citizens home. This is the third time since the air campaign began on October 7 that the Pentagon has acknowledged bombing error. The Pentagon acted promptly on two previous occasions when it determined that bombing errors had killed civilians. On Oct. 16, a US Navy fighter dropped 450 kg bombs on one or more warehouses used by the International Committee of the Red Cross in Kabul because they were believed to store military equipment, the Pentagon said. At least one person was seriously injured. On Oct. 13, the Pentagon said, a 900 kg satellite-guided bomb hit a Kabul residential area about two kilometres from its intended target, a military helicopter at Kabul airport. Four people were reported killed and eight others injured in that incident.

About thirty foreign journalists from different countries, including India, who secretly entered Afghanistan to cover the ongoing military action have been captured by unidentified Afghan tribesmen north of Kabul.

Pakistan has closed its border to the deluge of refugees trying to flee Afghanistan. At one time on Oct. 24, Pakistan guards had to open fire to keep away the refugees. After the UNHCR urged Pakistan to reopen the borders, the Musharraf Government agreed to admit only women and children.

Unable to face the bombs being rained by the US forces ever day and with the ongoing fear of a ground attack or secret commando actions, the Taliban has decided to arm the Afghans in the countryside to fight the increasing US military pressure. the Taliban Cabinet took the decision at an “emergency” meeting chaired by the second-in-command, Mullah Hassan, and attended by senior Ministers. The Taliban Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, later said heavy machine-guns, rocket-launchers and anti-aircraft guns, would be distributed to people to fight the US ground troops.

The Taliban is also preparing for a protected guerilla conflict by retreating to mountains, private homes and mosques to await invading ground troops. The hide-and-wait strategy, an age-old Afghan fighting method used by the Mujahideen who fought Soviet occupiers during the 1980s, has been described in recent statements by Taliban officials and confirmed in anecdotal accounts from independent local commanders, refugees and humanitarian aid agencies operating in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has some of the world’s most forbidding terrain - barren, rugged land that allows armed groups to attack and quickly disappear into hidden recesses, gorges and caves. The same condition that makes finding Osama bin Laden so daunting could give the Taliban forces an enormous advantage in any direct confrontation with US forces on the ground. Military analysts recall, guerilla tactics worked spectacularly for the CIA’s supplied Mujahideen against the massive presence of Soviet troops in the 1980-89 war of resistance.

Together with the Afghan fighters there are militants in Afghanistan from countries ranging from Chechnya to the Philippines and from Sudan to China. Five thousand militant Arabs and Muslims from other countries are operating in Afghanistan which has become the world’s most dangerous training ground to export their hardline beliefs. Western governments estimated that before the US began its attacks on the ruling Taliban on Oct 7, some 10 thousand to 13,000 militants were living in Afghanistan - part of a vast web of training camps run by bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda network. A Russian memo to the UN Security Council, based on the information compiled by the Government in Moscow on the bases and facilities used by bin Laden and Al-Qaeda, listed 55 camps, offices and residences. It said many of them were used by Arabs and Muslims from other countries.



Opposition leader executed

Amid conflicting reports of whether a top Opposition leader, Abdul Haq, went into exile on a peace mission or a military mission, the Taliban captured him and killed him alongwith two of his colleagues. Announcing his, Taliban Information Minister Abdul Himat Hannan said, he was executed on the basis of an Ulema verdict that anyone who assists the US should be killed. A Taliban spokesman said Haq who had been captured at Azra in Longar province, 30 km west of Pakistan’s north-western frontier, was surrounded by Taliban troops for two days during which he called for US help through his satellite phone. In response, the US helicopters bombed the Taliban to enable Haq to escape. But, at the end, he was caught and shot dead.

Sources close to the US and ex-King Zahir Shah, on the other hand, say that Haq had gone to Afghanistan on a peace mission to contact tribal leaders. He had no arms. Sources say he was part of the US and Pakistani plan to create a moderate Pathan leadership that would compete with the Taliban for ethnic Pathan support. A further calculation was that such a Pathan leadership would dilute the Northern Alliance’s strength.

Other reports, however, said Haq, who had a following in the Sarobi and Kabul areas, had gone into Afghanistan with the intention of opening another military front against the Taliban. Haq and some 100 armed men took up a position in the Spingar mountain range, north of Jalalabad. The Taliban say 50 men were captured with him.

Haq, 43, was a legendary fighter during the war against the Soviets and was wounded several times. He went into exile in the 1990s after falling out with the Taliban. His wife and 11-year old son were murdered in 1999 in Peshawar, reportedly at the behest of the Taliban.

Political observers say Haq’s death represents a major setback for the US efforts to replace the Taliban. Haq is the second anti-Taliban Afghan leader to be killed recently, the first being Ahmed Shah Masood. Masood Khalili, Ambassador of the Northern Alliance government in India, who was also present at an interview when two men masquerading as journalists to interview Masood killed him in a suicide attack, has said Osama bin Laden, the Taliban and Pakistan’s ISI were responsible for the conspiracy. Haq’s death, political observers say, will dampen expectations among other Pakistan-based Afghan commanders who have been organising soldiers to fight the Taliban.



Hunt for bin Laden

President Bush has sanctioned the CIA an extra $1 billion and a licence to kill Osama bin Laden and eliminate his Al-Qaeda network through covert and overt operations. This is the first time in some 25 years that a US President has issued such a specific order. Although every President since Gerald Ford has signed an executive order prohibiting the CIA or other agencies from getting involved in political assassinations, there is agreement between the CIA and the White House that the ban does not apply in times of war. Bush who soon after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks had said he wants Osama “dead or alive”, has now followed up with a formal order to the CIA which has launched its most sweeping and lethal covert action. The recent commando action by the US Special Forces in Afghanistan was reportedly in aid of the CIA operation.

The CIA lost a great opportunity to get Bin Laden last spring when it obtained a high quality video of him at one of his known locations in Afghanistan. But, now the CIA and the US military are better prepared. The unmanned Predator surveillance aircraft has been armed with Hellfire missiles so that it can accomplish a shoot-at-sight mission.

The US had earlier in 1998 launched a cruise attack on the hideout of Osama bin Laden after he organized two bomb attacks on US embassies in Africa. But, he escaped as he left the base just minutes before the attacks amid reports that the then head of the Pakistan ISI alerted him. Meanwhile, it was reported that bin Laden then sold the unexploded US cruise missiles at a huge price to China for reverse engineering. But, China has now issued a strong denial that it paid millions of dollars to Osama for the purchase of these missiles.

The Pentagon has since denied remarks attributed to Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that the American forces may never be able to catch Osama bin Laden. He was quoted as telling in an interview to USA TODAY that bin Laden has got a lot of money, a lot of people to support him and a lot of countries ready to give him shelter. “And I just do not know whether we’ll be successful,” he said, although he was hopeful that a new government would emerge in Afghanistan after the defeat of the Taliban.

Sources in the Pentagon say Osama bin Laden’s Afghan hideout has been pinned by the US intelligence to a 20 by 20 mile area in Khost, which is a strong pro-Taliban town and is located in a natural bowl surrounded by rugged mountains which provided refuge to all the seven leading mujahideen groups fighting the Soviets in the 1980s. During this period, the Russian garrison in Khost had to be supplied by air. In their nine-year occupation, the Russians launched multiple attacks in the surrounding mountains, some with special forces attack helicopters, artillery barrages, aircraft and even Scud missiles, but to no avail.

The US intelligence sources now say the 20 by 20 mile area is full of caves and tunnels making it impossible to seal the place. The US Special Forces are trying to gather better intelligence in order to attack Osama bin Laden and others from the air with greater precision.

A meeting of Afghan people, described as one of the largest gatherings of Afghans, in Peshawar on Oct. 24 called upon the Taliban to hand over Osama bin Laden over to the US, step down from power and pave the way for a broad-based government. But, the Taliban Ambassador to Pakistan, Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, at his regular Press briefing on Oct. 24 once again rejected the demand and vowed that the movement would not hand over bin Laden even at the cost of every life in Afghanistan. He said giving him up would be violation of Afghanistan culture and custom of not treating a guest with dishonour.

Meanwhile, the family of Osama bin Laden is close to ending its relationship with the Carlyle Group, the US investment group backed by former US President George Bush Sr. and former Prime Minister John Major. The end of relationship comes in spite of the fact that Osama bin Laden has been disowned by the family.



US rejects Pak plan to foist “moderates”

Pakistan has suffered a major diplomatic and strategic setback to its bid to install a government of the “moderate” Taliban, after the ouster of the Islamic militia. Testifying at a Congressional hearing on Oct. 9, US Secretary of State Colin Powell indicated that the frontline ally of Pakistan would have to take a backseat in determining the future dispensation of Afghanistan. Powell who visited India and Pakistan earlier this month, when Gen. Musharraf made a plea for giving the so-called moderate Taliban a dominant role in a future government, rejected the Pakistani suggestion and asserted that it will have to be an international effort. “It won’t work if any one country dictates what the future of the Government will look like. The next Government of Afghanistan cannot be dictated into being by Pakistan”, Powell said. He dismissed Pakistan’s self-proclaimed role as the king maker in Kabul by suggesting that Washington was not enthused about the largely Pashtun meeting convened by Islamabad in Peshawar. Powell acknowledged Islamabad’s interest in Afghanistan because of geographical proximity, but made it plain that “they cannot do what they did before, namely, foisting a government of their choice”. He was also clear that the interests of other neighbours of Afghanistan like Russia and China could not be subordinated to Islamabad’s. Powell seemed to acknowledged the complaints of rigging about the Islamabad-sponsored show of the so-called Pashtun moderates in Peshawar and disclosed that the US would like the talks for the formation of the next government to be held at an independent venue. In a final blow to Pakistan’s political and diplomatic strategy in the region, Powell declined to endorse the Pakistani military leader’s contention that the terrorists in Afghanistan were different from the so-called freedom fighters in Jammu and Kashmir, pointedly saying: “That is a distinction he makes, not me”.

Political observers describe Powell’s remarks as a sheer disaster for Musharraf. They say it showed that Islamabad’s effort to pass off just another bunch of fundamentalists as Taliban has not impressed the United States. The denial of the veto that Pakistan has been asking for as the price for its “unconditional cooperation” with the US is a setback to Musharraf who hoped to salvage Islamabad’s huge investment in the Taliban by putting another pliant regime in Kabul. It implies that contrary to the impression created by Musharraf and his spin masters, the US has not underwritten Pakistan’s supremacy over Afghanistan. It also means demolition of the “grand gameplan” to reduce a sovereign neighbour into a mere strategic adjunct since any government formed in consultation with other neighbours of Afghanistan cannot be expected to be subservient to Islamabad’s military plans in the same way a Taliban was, or a “moderate” Taliban will be. The concern of the neighbours over the spillover of terrorism eliminates that possibility.

Also, considering that Gen. Musharraf has dangled the prospect of fundamentalists’ continuing hold over Afghanistan under the cover of “moderate Taliban”, many of his colleagues in the Army and the ISI who viewed the control over Afghanistan as compensation of sorts for the loss of Bangladesh, may not be happy. To that extent, it calls into question the credibility of the General’s claim that he was dealing with the US from a position of strength and that the US was in no position to deny the price that Islamabad has asked for its “unconditional support.” Coming from Powell, who favours a broad coalition and, by extension, accommodation of demands of all, his remarks, if anything, can suggest only growing exasperation with Pakistan.

The gap between Gen. Musharraf’s expectations and the willingness of the architects of the coalition to meet them was brought out also by the air cover the US warplanes provided to the Northern Alliance during the week to advance towards Kabul. Until now, the US had been delaying such support, despite persistent demands by the Northern Alliance, because of its desire to seal a post-Taliban political set-up before allowing the Northern Alliance to capture the capital.

Pakistan’s demand for inclusion of “moderate Taliban” in the government formation has also been dismissed by the Northern Alliance Charge d’Affaires in New Delhi, Syed Sardar Ahmad, who said, “All Afghans, of course, are not Talibs, but no Talib is a moderate”



Pak wooing moderates

Pakistan has been trying to win over the moderate elements from the present hardline Taliban militia notwithstanding the setback it has received from Colin Powell. The Taliban ambassador, Maulana Zaeef, was sent to Peshawar for consultations with the Taliban leadership while Maulvi Haqqani, a Minister in the Taliban Government, who was recently appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Afghan militia, spent many days in Islamabad amid reports that Pakistan was trying to cause a rift in the Taliban and Haqqani would be the man who would head the moderate faction of the militia. The Foreign Minister, Wakil Muttawakil, was another senior figure in the Taliban who was also being cultivated by Pakistan to join the moderate ranks. He is being wooed after first trying to get Mullah Akhond, Deputy Chairman of the Taliban, to move against Mullah Omar. On the other hand, Jalaluddin Haqqani was formerly of the Khales faction of the Hizb-e-Islami - once powerful in the Jalalabad region - and is one of the few Taliban leaders to have fought the Soviets. Pakistan is also cultivating Prof. Abdur Rasool Sayyaf of the Northern Alliance. Sayyaf, whose troops have a key presence in the Panjsher Valley, had opposed Masood’s reliance on military aid from India and Russia. In May, there were reports that the ISI was trying to broker a deal between the Taliban and Sayyaf in which the latter would emerge as the Prime Minister of a “broad-based” government.

In order to give a greater push to its demand for the inclusion of moderates in the government formation, Pakistan hosted a two-day meeting in Peshawar on Oct. 23 attended by about 1500 clerics, tribal chiefs and Afghan exiles to discuss the future of a post-Taliban Afghanistan. The conference was organized by a coalition of exile groups dominated by the National Islamic Front of Afghanistan [NIFA] led by Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani, an Islamic spiritual leader and supporter of Afghanistan’s exiled former King Zahir Shah.

Many observers saw the meeting as the formation of a “Southern Alliance” made up of the country’s Pashtun majority as a more credible political alternative to the Northern Opposition which is dominated by ethnic minority Uzbeks and Tajiks. It certainly appeared to be dominated by exiles form Pashtun tribes from south of the Hindu Kush mountain chain that divides the poverty-stricken country, and indeed issued a veiled warning against a leading role for the Northern Alliance.

The meeting saw a role for moderate elements of the Taliban. The deliberations focussed on swiftly establishing a Loya Jirga, a traditional Grand Council of the country’s elders, to pave the way for a broad-based government that would operate from a demilitarized Kabul under the auspices of the United Nations and the Organisation of Islamic Conference [OIC]. Stressing the need for an early decision on government-making, the meeting noted that the military operations carried out by the US and its allies would cause the fall of the Taliban regime at any time which may create a political vacuum.

The meeting passed a resolution calling for a Grand Council headed by deposed King Zahir Shah. It called on all “foreigners” [a reference to Osama bin Laden and his Al-Qaeda followers] to leave Afghanistan and not to exploit any longer the hospitality of Afghanistan.

In his opening speech, Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani, leader of the NIFA, called for an end to US military operations and efforts to form a transitional government headed by former King Zahir Shah, who now lives in Rome. Gailani also favoured the involvement of the so-called moderates in the future Government and said, the moderate Taliban ready to work with all Afghans to rebuild the country would be welcome in a post-Taliban Government. He said, “Taliban moderates could play a continued role in politics if the regime is replaced with a more broad-based Government.” Making out a strong case for not ignoring the moderate Taliban, he said, “There are elements in Afghanistan who have their importance, whose role is important and cannot be ignored irrespective of what the impression might be outside Afghanistan about their role. They are very much a part of this society, their existence cannot be challenged”. A delegation of the ex-King Zahir Shah was also invited to the meeting.

Russia, Tajikistan and the Northern Alliance have categorically opposed any Taliban role in a future Afghanistan Government. Toeing a line different from Pakistan, the heads of the three sides, at a midnight meeting in Dushanbe, capital of Tajikistan, on Oct. 22, demanded the complete dissolution of all Taliban structure. The meeting was held after the Russian President, Valdimir Putin, fresh from his talks with President Bush in the Chinese commercial city of Shanghai on the margins of the APEC summit, made an airdash to Dushanbe for talks with the Northern Alliance and Tajik leaders: President Emomali Rohmkanov of Tajikistan and ousted Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani. The hastily arranged meeting took place in the wake of hectic diplomatic parleys to include the Taliban in the future government after the present regime is overthrown. At the APEC summit, President Bush did his best to sell his global anti-terrorism plan in the context of Afghanistan. Russia and China favoured a broad-based multi-ethnic government under the UN auspices.

India, together with Iran and now France, also opposes the accommodation of the Taliban in any form in any future government in Afghanistan.

Efforts to cobble together a post-Taliban government got under way with a meeting of the special UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, with King Zahir Shah in Rome. Brahimi, the UN pointsman for Afghanistan, went to Rome after consultations with senior State Department officials in Washington about their views on the formation of a new government. It is being proposed in some quarters that since whoever replaces the Taliban will inherit a blighted land bereft of almost recognizable state institutions, the United Nations should run Afghanistan temporarily under some sort of trusteeship arrangement, with UN troops, preferably drawn largely from the Islamic world, keeping the peace. Colin Powell has also favoured that peace keepers could play a role once a broad-based assemblage of Afghans, perhaps using the former King as a rallying point, emerges. Under this scenario, a UN civil administration, backed by the UN peace keepers, would be put in place until a representative Afghan Government is ready to take over.

There are suggestions that the proposed UN peace-keeping force would have contingents only from Muslim countries. Turkey and Bangladesh have been identified as the countries making major contribution to this peace-keeping force. Countries like Pakistan and Iran which share a border with Afghanistan cannot be expected to be part of a neutral peace-keeping force, it is believed n Washington. Others like Saudi Arabia which had an active role in Afghanistan in the past, would also automatically rule themselves out. Lakhdar Brahimi, however, is not in favour of the idea of a Muslim peacekeeping force. Backed by France, he favours the creation of a national Afghan peace-keeping force that would draw fighters from the various military factions that have been at war with one another since the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989.