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UPA to go ahead with Office of Profit Bill : Stormy Parliament session ahead

	July 24, 2006

Parliament is starting its Monsoon session today, July 24, with all signs indicating a stormy period and difficult time for the Manmohan Singh government. On the eve of the session, the Union Cabinet on its meeting on Saturday, July 22, decided to reintroduce the Office of Profit Bill in Parliament without making any changes. In a decision reportedly taken under the pressure of the Left parties, especially the CPI(M), ten of whose Members of Parliament, including Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee face disqualification charges for holding offices of profit, the cabinet said the Bill is to be sent back as it is to the President. The Cabinet also decided against offering any clarification to the President about its thinking on the points raised by him when returning the Bill to both Houses of Parliament. The President wanted the Bill to be reconsidered as he felt that it should focus on evolving a comprehensive criterion, “just fair and reasonable” and applicable to all States and Union Territories. President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam also wanted that there should be a comprehensive and generic criteria for exempting offices of profit.



On the plans of the government, Parliamentary Affairs Minister P R Dasmunshi told reporters that a motion on the Bill was likely to be moved in the Rajya Sabha on July 25. The message from the President would be read out in the Rajya Sabha on July 25 as the House was expected to be adjourned without transacting any business on the opening day of the Monsoon session after paying homage to former Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pramod Mahajan.



Asked whether the Cabinet decision amounted to disregarding the sentiments of the highest office in the country, the Minister said he would not like to enter into an argument as the matter would be decided in Parliament. The Minister, however, said the government has the highest regard for the institution of President and his message would be considered by Parliament ‘’with full honour”.



The Bill, which seeks to exempt 45 posts from the purview of disqualification law relating to office of profit, was passed by the Lok Sabha on May 16 and by the Rajya Sabha on May 17 in the wake of several petitions to the President, seeking disqualification of several MPs, including Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee.



The Government’s move was attacked by the Opposition parties which said that the Manmohan Singh government has no respect for responsibilities of power. According to them, the decision amounted to rejecting the President’s call for applying correct legal provisions and ensuring constitutional fairness.



An eminent constitutional law expert, Fali S Nariman, had described the legislation as a blot on the name of Parliament. “By a legislative sleight of hand a constitutional transgression that had already taken place is sought to be removed by law - passed (among others) by the legislators who have avowedly acted in violation of the constitutional provision. The lack of any objective assessment of the offices that are not to be treated as offices of profit, together with the back-dating of the new law (so that all sitting members remain sitting members) inexorably conveys the impression to all right-thinking persons that the people’s representatives have amply “looked after their own.”



Nariman said Parliament is not authorised by law to grant amnesty to its own members pardoning them from non-compliance with a constitutional provision. Parliament is empowered to make laws for the public good, not to enact laws principally for the exclusive benefit of its own sitting members,” Nariman had said.





President apprised of Government stand



In a bid to soften the impact of the Government outright rejection of President’s reservations on the Office of Profit Bill, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called on President Abdul Kalam immediately after the Cabinet meeting to apprise him of the Cabinet decision. He also utilised the opportunity to brief the President on the deliberations of the G-8 meeting which he had attended recently in St. Petersburg.



According to Art. 111 of the Constitution, the President has to sign the Bill if it is passed against by both Houses of Parliament. As there is no time set for giving his ascent, technically, the President can sit on it - a possibility the UPA would not like to be faced with.



Though the Government is confident of mustering adequate support for the re-introduced Bill, it is not taking any chances. There is unease over the stand of parties like the Samajwadi Party, the Telugu Desam Party and the All India Anna DMK, especially in the Rajya Sabha. Union Ministers Pranab Mukherjee and Priyaranjan Dasmunshi are continuing talks with leaders of various parties to muster support for the Bill. A whip is being issued to Congress MPs to be present in the Rajya Sabha from July 24 to 28.



The Opposition BJP has decided to oppose the Office of Profit Bill “tooth and nail” when it is reintroduced. But the party says if the Government makes changes in the Bill after consulting the opposition, it may not be averse to it. BJP leaders who met at former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s residence on July 20 were of the view that the Manmohan Singh Government is under pressure from the Left to get the Bill re-approved by Parliament so that President Kalam is forced to give his assent. BJP leaders, however, were of the view that the Bill, when made into law, is unlikely to escape the test of the Supreme Court, which may consider striking it down for violating the Constitution.



Meanwhile, the Election Commission has hauled up the West Bengal Government for refusing to provide information on the petitions for disqualification pending against eight CPI(M) members of Parliament, including Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee.



Taking strong exception to the West Bengal Government’s action of sending an “opinion” of the state’s Advocate General instead of information, the Election Commission has threatened to invoke Section 146 of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, for “formally summoning requisite information.”



Citing two Supreme Court judgements defining the EC’s jurisdiction, the Commission, in a hard-hitting letter to the State Government, has asked it to furnish the information no later than July 31.



Observers say that the West Bengal Government’s refusal to part with the information sought by the Election Commission is intended to help the CPI(M) to pre-empt the Commission from deciding the cases of its MPs allegedly holding offices of profit before Parliament re-adopts the Prevention of Disqualification Amendment Bill. The Election Commission has said that it will continue its proceedings on petitions asking for disqualification of certain MPs, till there is a law exempting the offices held by such MPs.







Manmohan Singh : Where he stands !



The aam admi seems to have given Prime Minister Manmohan Singh just the mix of good and bad news he may have hoped for on the eve of a difficult parliamentary session. Ordinary citizens think of their prime minister as an honest and wise person, though they are not sure of his being a strong leader. They are, on balance, satisfied with his work but this has not made him into a charismatic leader whose popularity may threaten the first family in Indian politics.



The PM may have desperately hoped for this piece of bad news as much as some appreciation of his work. But there is one piece of bad news that he may not have wanted. The aam admi is unhappy about how the PM has handled price rise, farmer’s suicides and terrorism.



These conclusions are based on the first nationwide survey focussed on the performance of Manmohan Singh after taking the office more than two years ago. Conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, The Indian Express-CNN-IBN survey is perhaps the first one of its kind focussing on a range of questions dealing with the evaluation of a PM.



A total of 1,884 respondents were interviewed at their residence between July 16-19. The conclusions based on this survey are broadly reliable since the interviews were spread across 18 states. The profile of the respondents interviewed matches the national profile very closely.



Let us first look at the good news for the PM.



The intense media speculation about the “PM in siege” and political intrigue about the possibility of a change of guard does not seem to have affected the charity that the Indians have usually extended to their top leaders.



On balance, the ordinary people are quite satisfied with the work does by the PM: 56% satisfied versus only 18% dissatisfied means a ratio of about 3:1 of satisfied to dissatisfied. The ratio goes up to 6:1 among the UPA and also Left voters and drops to about 2:1 among those who had voted for the NDA in 2004.



That is not a bad rating, coming from the rival camp. The country’s first PM from a minority community is understandably a shade more popularly among the minorities but is acceptable across the entire social spectrum.



When asked to give the PM marks out of 100 on his work so far, the respondents gave him 68 marks, a little higher than the famous six-out-of-ten that the PM gave himself on the completion of his one year in the office.



The Congress and the Left voters would like to award him a “distinction” while the BJP voters would give him a high second class.



In terms of specific attributes, the PM’s biggest asset continues to be his image of being an honest leader. As many as 64% of the respondents agree that he is honest against only 8% who disagree. This ratio of 8:1 is replicated across the political divide; even the BJP voters concede this.



His intelligence and wisdom is another very strong point that gets him support across the spectrum. He is respected a little more for this among the educated respondents than among the less educated. All in all, people find him trustworthy, a crucial asset for any political leader.



Compared to the poll held in January, his trust rating has dropped by about 5 points. But when he is compared to other recent Prime Ministers, his overall evaluation is quite positive. He is rated to have been better PM for the country than all the recent PMs except Atal Bihari Vajpayee.



This positive evaluation comes with the right kind of “bad news”. The PM is not seen as a strong leader with an independent mind. Only 8% believe that he takes major policy decisions on his own as against 46% who think that Sonia takes all or at least all the major decisions.



The PM is nowhere close to becoming a larger-than-life figure or a charismatic leader like Vajpayee who was more popular than his party. In the popularity ranking for the most preferred choice as the Prime Minister, Singh is still placed third.



At 16% of the popular support, he is no threat to Sonia Gandhi who leads with 29%, having overtaken Vajpayee shortly after the 2004 elections. The PM has added 5 points to his popularity since January, reflecting higher name recognition over time, but not at the expense of Sonia Gandhi.



The BJP has reasons to feel threatened for Vajpayee’s popularity is falling steadily since the last Lok Sabha elections without any corresponding gains for Advani or any other leader from the party.



Sonia Gandhi’s stature as the most respected political leader appears quite secure. Given a choice, a clear majority of the respondents and two thirds of the Congress voters would like to see Sonia Gandhi herself rather than Manmohan Singh as the PM.

Only the BJP and the Left voters contest this proposition. The Congress voters would, on balance, settle for Rahul Gandhi as well in preference to Singh. But this sentiment does not prevail outside the Congress voters. Among the Congress voters who have an opinion, nearly 90% would prefer someone from the Gandhi family to Singh or anyone else.



If the Gandhi family is excluded from consideration, 40% respondents would like Sigh to continue as against only 22% who would like him to be replaced by someone else within the party. In this respect, the Congress voters were no different than the rest; voters of Congress allies were more loyal to Singh than the Congressmen.



When those wanting a change were asked to name the alternative, no Congress leader could secure even 2% of popular support.

Most of the pro-changers favoured “any one from Congress.” In other words, while people prefer Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi continues to enjoy a free hand in this matter.



The respondents don’t mind her role in the decision-making of the government. No one except BJP voters, not even those who voted for the BJP allies, have any problem in the PM taking instructions from Sonia Gandhi.



The media and the analysts may have problems with this unusual division of political and governmental power, but the ordinary people are not bothered by these subtleties.



Similarly, voters do not think that the PM has allowed himself to be unduly pressured by the Left parties; more voters see this as a legitimate consultation with an ally rather than blackmail tactics.



But there is one real piece of bad news for the PM in the survey. When the respondents were quizzed about the PM’s handling of some specific issues, he came up for serious criticism. No, it is not his mysterious silence on reservations that the people are unhappy about.



On balance, his approach on reservation is approved by the people. His government’s handling of terrorism is not approved. It should be noted that the survey took place within a few days of the Mumbai blasts and may have been affected by it.



The anxiety on this score was more pronounced in states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi that have witnessed terrorist incidents.



Ironically, the most serious indictment of the economist prime minister comes on his handling of the economy. The survey shows a strong disapproval of his handling of the farmers’ suicides, which can be seen as an unease with the agrarian policy. The most severe indictment comes on “price rise.”



As many as 56% of the respondents hold his policies in this regard to be a failure, compared to only 17% who think he has been a success. The politician in Singh knows that when the aam admi talks of “price rise” he is not talking about what the economists call “inflation” which is low in India by international standards.



This is another way of talking about lack of purchasing power, about poverty. In other words, his government is being seen as a failure in addressing poverty.



Note that the same respondents who see him as honest and wise are not willing to call him pro-poor. Manmohan Singh obviously knows the political cost of being seen as pro-rich. If not, he could always consult his predecessor in this office.





NDA plans No Confidence Motion



Starting with an adjournment motion on the alleged failure of the Government to prevent the rise of terrorism indicated by the bomb blasts in Mumbai and grenade attacks in Srinagar, the BJP-led opposition is planning to move a No Confidence Motion against the Manmohan Singh Government in the last week of the Monsoon session. The opposition strategy, observers say, is to put the government in the dock on three major issues of price rise, terrorism and internal security. Other controversial issues which will be used to put the Government on the mat include the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal, the plan to have quota for OBCs in educational institutions and economic policy matters.



According to non-Congress UPA sources, 21 MPs from the ruling coalition can change the present power equation if they come together. BSP president Mayawati has threatened to withdraw support to the UPA if it failed to contain inflation, while the Telangana Rashtra Samithi issued yet another ultimatum on the Telangana statehood issue, saying it would opt out of the UPA and intensify its movement if the Congress failed to spell out its stand by August 15.



“The BSP, which is backing the UPA from outside, will withdraw support if it fails to check the soaring prices of essential commodities,” Mayawati said in Bhopal.



“The UPA is unstable as members of the alliance might withdraw support if the Congress-led coalition fails to contain inflation soon. We have given the congress a couple of months. We will keep a watch on the attitude of the Congress during the coming Monsoon session of Parliament before taking any step,” she said.



NDA sources are optimistic about the UPA weakening in the coming months. “Samajwadi Party may not join the Opposition on the floor due to the Left’s compulsions, but its support to the UPA will not help it in the upcoming UP Assembly elections,” an NDA leader viewed.





International treaties must get Parliament OK : Left



After getting their pound of flesh on the Office of Profit issue, the Left parties are set to mount more pressure on the Manmohan Singh Government on economic and foreign policy matters. The CPI(M) has demanded that all international treaties signed by Government must be ratified for Parliament and where they impact on the states by the National Development Council. In its comments on the Approach Paper to the 11th Plan, the party said that there are increasing restrictions on the rights of the States. It said a whole range of international treaties have been signed that affect the livelihood of people living in states without any consultation with the states concerned. CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat said on July 16 that the Planning Commission has ignored the issues of public investment, employment generation and steps to address the agrarian crisis.



The CPI(M) has also decided to raise the national security breach to the Indo-US strategic partnership. Party Politburo member Brinda Karat said on July 18 that security leaks are grave. We believe that developments are connected with the lack of independent foreign policy.



Brinda Karat said on foreign policy and the Indo-US nuclear agreement, the CPI(M) will actively push all treaties with foreign countries ratified for Parliament. “It is unpardonable that political parties are kept in the dark (on treaties), they should be informed,” said Karat.



Observers say the party has of late been taking a more strident stand on issues where the Left and the UPA Government have found no common ground, and in recent meetings made no secret that its relations with the UPA could be more tenuous than they looked. The recent note on the UPA’s performance submitted to the Government was on the direction of the Central Committee which said the aim must be to roll back policies of the Government on which there were differences and for this the Government “must be put in the dock.”



Brinda Karat said that apart from opposing the government’s economic policies and digressions from the National Common Minimum Programme, the CPI(M) will push for four Bills in the coming session - the Bill to have 27 per cent OBC quota in higher education, the tribal Bill (as amended by the JPC), the unorganized sector Bill and the women’s reservation Bill.





UPA-Left to keep differences on hold



The UPA-Left Coordination meeting held in New Delhi on July 22 saw the Left parties voicing their concern on the Indo-US nuclear issue. Left leaders who took part in the meeting said the United States have brought up new issues on reciprocity and sequencing that had gone beyond the Prime Minister’s statement on the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal in Parliament. They called for Parliamentary committee to be formed to set out the parameters on which to proceed with the agreement.



Leaders from the CPI(M), CPI, RSP and Forward Bloc said fears were also raised at the manner in which the US House of Representatives and Senate committees had brought additional provisions to the proposed deal that were not in conformity with nuclear technology development.



During the meeting that lasted two-and-a-half hours, both sides agreed to keep their differences on hold for the difficult Monsoon session. The Prime Minister told the Left that there would be no deviation from his statement to Parliament - reciprocity would form the basis of the nuclear deal. The Government, however, agreed to the Left proposal to introduce the Bill on OBC reservation in higher education in the coming session regardless of the progress of the Oversight Committee.



The Left on its part, gave way when told that the UPA response to their review of the Government’s performance would come in two weeks at the next coordination committee meeting.



The Left leaders decided not to highlight their objections to the Pension Bill and the amendments to the Banking Regulation Act, saying they would bring their proposals to the next meeting. Meanwhile, the Government said that India’s commitment on the nuclear agreement would depend on and be reciprocal to the United States honouring its side of the agreement. India’s actions would depend on the actions of the United States.



The Left parties decided that their leaders in Parliament would would work with the Government to fine-tune the Scheduled Tribes (Recognition of Forest Rights) Bill, 2005, so that it could be legislated in the current session. The Left leaders said that suggestions made by the Joint Parliamentary Committee should be incorporation.



They also said that the Government should bring forward legislation giving 27 per cent reservation for OBCs in higher educational institutions as was decided at the UPA-Left meeting in May this year. Prakash Karat said the internal security situation against the backdrop of the Mumbai serial blasts figured during Saturday’s meeting. A discussion is expected on the subject in the current Monsoon session.