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UPA-Left meeting on nuclear issue – US ready to ink pact with minority govt in India |
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The next meeting of the UPA-Left Committee is expected to be held on March 17 in New Delhi to discuss the India-specific nuclear safeguards agreement that the Indian negotiators finalized with the IAEA in Vienna a few days ago following five rounds of talks over more than four months. The Left may insist on seeing the draft. The 11-member Atomic Energy Commission, headed by Anil Kakodkar, discussed on March 12 the text of the safeguards agreement to be taken to Left leaders. The draft agreement was shown to the UPA members of the panel by Kakodkar the next day. Despite the draft agreement being very technical in nature, the members who met the chairman of the panel, External Affairs Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, are learnt to have agreed that the agreement fulfils all assurances given by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Mukherjee in Parliament. Mukherjee is expected to make a statement in Parliament on the issue on March 17.
But when the text is presented at the UPA-Left Committee meeting on March 17, the Communists may ask for more time to study it, thus causing undue delay. This was clearly indicated by the CPI[M] leader, Prakash Karat He said on March 10, it may take them two to three months to go into the draft agreement and discuss the issue. Essentially, Karat was saying that they would sit on the IAEA issue at the panel and ensure that Americans, who have been talking of a May deadline given the November presidential elections, do not have enough time to pilot the deal through the US Congress. US Senator John Kerry who was in New Delhi last week had said on Feb 20, “In order to be able to have time to debate this and pass it [the nuclear deal] in the Senate, it would really have to be received somewhere in May at the latest in order to give time to be able to pass.” This is precisely the timetable that Karat is hoping to torpedo. And he has the clout to do it, unless Dr. Manmohan Singh dares the Left to withdraw support and goes ahead with signing the agreement even after reduced to being a minority caretaker Government. However, BJP leader L.K. Advani has claimed that the Government has silently conveyed to its Left allies that it will not pursue the agreement.
Significantly, indirectly advising the Prime Minister to call the Communist bluff and go ahead with signing the safeguards agreement with the IAEA, the Bush Administration has said it was not averse to wrapping up the nuclear deal with a minority government in India. Washington has thus set at rest questions over the fate of the agreement if Left parties were to withdraw support to the ruling UPA. “Our basic Government position is that we can sign an agreement with a duly-constituted Government whatever its political status”, Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher said in an interview to OUTLOOK magazine. He was responding when referred to Pranab Mukherjee’s comment that a minority government “cannot, need not and should not sign a major agreement” like the nuclear deal. “As long as it is duly constituted Government of the country, we can sign a deal with it,” Boucher said.
Boucher’s statement is significant as it coincides with the fresh threat from the Left that it will withdraw support to the Central Government if it went ahead with the nuclear deal. This threat from the Left has been prompting the Government to move cautiously on the deal. The US assertion provides comfort level for the Government. A section of the Government has been arguing that goodwill generated by the budget should be used for pushing the deal. The Congress leaders are expected to take a formal call on the matter before they meet the Left representatives on March 17.
Karat has, however, has said if the Congress wants to operationalise the nuclear deal with the US, it should seek a fresh mandate. “We have already made it clear that we will not allow the Government to ink the nuclear deal or any other US-centric deal. If Congress wants the deal, it should go to the people and seek their mandate”, Karat said in Lucknow.
It thus looks like the UPA-Left cookie is beginning to crumble over the nuclear agreement. The Congress, more than any other constituent of the ruling UPA, appears determined to go ahead with the deal. The Left for its part is equally determined that the deal should be scuttled. Opposition from other quarters – such as the BJP, the UNPA or even constituents of the UPA – does not really count any more.
It is now clear that the Left and the UPA may be at worst headed for a parting of ways on the issue. After faltering for some six months - and buying time through the UPA-Left Joint Committee on the nuclear deal – the Congress is now set on an irreversible course to clinch the agreement. The Left is no longer in a position to restrain the Congress with the “deal or government” threat. Having decided to go ahead now, the Congress, like the Left, is all too aware that the deal can only shorten somewhat the UPA’s term; and, election, due in 2009, would get advanced by a few months. This will hurt the Left more than damage the Congress party.
Apparently, the Congress Party has already reckoned with a scenario where the moment it meets the deadline to put through the deal, the Left will withdraw support. By then, the budget would have been passed and the effect of provisions like the farm loan waivers will be felt. Even after the Left pulls the plug, the UPA will have six months to prepare for the general election. It is the Left that will find itself at a disadvantage. In the event, the Congress will get the deal and get to keep the government too, for more than four-fifths of its term. So it may be time for the party and the Prime Minister to call the Left’s bluff.
In order to become reality, the nuclear deal has to clear at least four hurdles. First, and foremost, it must be cleared by the UPA-Left panel, which is where Karat and the rest of the Left aim to halt the accord. If, and there appears very little chance of that happening, the deal makes it through the panel, then India will signal to the IAEA an agreement on the draft, which then has to be circulated to all agency board members before it can be initialled. Third, the Nuclear Suppliers Group [NSG] will have to lift India-specific curbs on civil nuclear cooperation before New Delhi signs the safeguards agreement with the IAEA. This, India has been saying is a must because it does not want to put its reactors under safeguards and the NSG does not do away with restrictions on nuclear commerce with New Delhi. Fourth, the 123 Agreement has to be approved by the US Congress in an up-down vote. With the Left signalling its all-out opposition, there appears little chance of it happening by May. It would then have crossed the American congressional deadline. It is also evident that while the Congress can use the nuclear deal to beat the Left [the compliment will surely be returned] in the election season, a minority Government will not have the international clout to push the deal through the IAEA and the NSG.
Indian-American admits to sending sensitive parts to India
An Indian owner of an international electronics company in the US has pleaded guilty to conspiracy to illegally export restricted components from America to Indian Government entities involved in the space programme and the production of missiles and fighter jets.
Parthasarthy Sudarsan, CEO of Cirrus Electronics, entered his guilty plea in US District Court, Columbia, to the felony charge of conspiracy to violate various laws. A resident of South Carolina, Sudarsan supplied microprocessors and other electronic components to Indian agencies including the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre and Bharat Dynamics Ltd., which was involved in the development of ballistic missiles, between 2002 and 2006, the US Department of Justice claimed.
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