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UPA Government : Support slipping

	May 22, 2006

As the UPA Government headed by Dr. Manmohan Singh completes two years in office today, a survey has come out indicating that support for the Government has slipped during its second year. The survey was conducted by the Hindustan Times-C Fore in six metropolitan cities last week. Observers say that the findings of the survey are in line with public perception of the working of the United Progressive Alliance Government. The results of the Assembly elections held in four states and a Union Territory have also not been too good for the Congress which is heading the UPA. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) lost power in Kerala while it was able to make it back to office in Assam only with the skin of its teeth, getting the support of regional parties to head a coalition Government. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress put up a better show in alliance with the DMK, but the plans of local Congressmen to share power have been rejected by the DMK Chief and Chief Minister Karunanidhi.



Respondents gave the Prime Minister a 5.86 out of 10 on his performance. Compare that to a similar survey conducted a year back when he was given 6.46, that’s about a ten per cent drop in approval. The reason ? Broadly, a perception of general inaction. Specially, it seems that the quota stir has tarnished Manmohan Singh’s image in the metros.



Not that the anti-reservation protests are going to derail reservations. “We did not allow Medha Patkar to hold us to ransom, we won’t allow the students either,” said a PMO official.



While the Prime Minister may lay emphasis on building foreign relations (experts see the US nuclear deal as his major achievement) that may not impress the voters too much - even in the metros. In reply to what the priority for the UPA’s third year should be, foreign relations came last; creating jobs was number one.



Regarding the major players in his team, Chidambaram scored the highest. Running neck and neck with him was Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav.



Two years ago, says an aide, the Prime Minister had urged both Lalu Prasad Yadav and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar to do something substantial with their portfolios; it is the PMO’s assessment that while Lalu has done wonders, Pawar has been more busy with cricket.



Aides harp on the Prime Minister’s frustration that India is at a juncture where big things can happen, but his Government is not exploiting the opportunities. He let some of that frustration show in February, while addressing retired foreign service officers, he bemoaned the lack of strategic thinking in the country.



Perhaps he ought to look at fresh blood. The people seem to think so; 27 per cent wanted an immediate induction of youngsters into the Ministry, while another 19 per cent said it should happen in the next six months. Less than a quarter wanted to wait till after the next parliamentary elections.





More tightrope walking in store



Observers say Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may have to brace himself up for more tightrope walking with a resurgent Left clamouring for a brake on economic reform policies and the reservation issue stalking the coalition.



A redeeming feature for the UPA coalition is that the main opposition BJP still remained embroiled in internal problems. But the Left parties more than filled up for the opposition and have threatened to play a more aggressive role in Parliament and outside on any violation, as they perceive it, of the Common Minimum Programme.



Soon after the completion of one year, relations between the UPA and the Left witnessed a major rupture with Prakash Karat, elected CPI(M) General Secretary, announcing suspension of the Left’s participation in the UPA-Left Coordination Committee.



Left parties have raised their voice against any rise in the prices of petroleum products in spite of the crude oil prices internationally touching the roof and have warned against any move to bring down the EPF interest rate.



Dr. Manmohan Singh has been lucky to build bridges with leaders like Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, who led the Left win in West Bengal and is also talking the language of ushering in industry and investment in the eastern state, lagging behind in development.



The Indo-US nuclear cooperation agreement was the feather in the cap of the economist-turned-politician as US President George W Bush, in search of friends, visited India and walked the extra mile for providing energy security. Much to the discomfiture of the Prime Minister as also Congress President Sonia Gandhi, the visit was utilised by the Left parties and the Samajwadi Party, outside supporters of the coalition, to paint the Government and the Congress black to woo the Muslims ahead of the Assembly polls in five states.



The year saw the Central coalition bringing in the ambitious National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme which was being implemented in 200 most backward districts. Questions are, however, being raised how much it would benefit the ruling party politically. Another pro-active step to build a better rural infrastructure was unveiled through the Bharat Nirman programme.



But that the government failed to tackle the agrarian crisis was evident from the fact that suicides of farmers continued in some states, including the Congress-ruled Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. This was in spite of the fact that India was being touted as among the fastest growing economies in the world along with China. The decision to import 3.5 million tonnes of wheat also reflected that all was not well on the farm front.



Though the Assembly polls in Bihar in November finally ended the 15-year rule of the Lalu Prasad-led RJD, it did not have any bearing on the Manmohan Singh Government as the Congress ensured that this time it remained on the right side of the Railways Minister. The dissolution of the Bihar Assembly in May after the February polls and the subsequent Supreme Court judgement on the issue brought much embarrassment to the Prime Minister with the opposition training guns on him.



The year saw resignation of External Affairs Minister K Natwar Singh in the wake of the Volcker controversy and the Minister of State for Overseas Indian Affairs Jagdish Tytler in the wake of the Nanavati Commission report on the 1984 anti-Sikh riots.



Despite pulls and pressures in the coalition, the division of labour between Sonia Gandhi looking after political affairs and the Prime Minister towards the nitty gritty of administration continued to pay dividends.



A section in the Congress believes that the Left support to the coalition was a blessing in disguise as it helps keep the government listening to the problems of the weak and the downtrodden.



Despite suggestions that Rahul Gandhi is being groomed for the Prime Ministership sooner or later, this section believes that Manmohan Singh continued to be in a “very unique position” as “no one can touch him”.



Sonia Gandhi nipped in the bud the campaign by Congress MPs led by Ajit Jogi that she takeover the Prime Ministership in the wake of her record win in the Rae Bareli bye-election. It showed the goodwill and the support enjoyed by Manmohan Singh.





Stock-market crash : Left critical of government



Last week’s slide down in the stock markets has opened up another avenue for conflict between the UPA Government and the Left parties. The Left says that lack of regulatory mechanism resulted in the crash. The CPI(M) said that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are being allowed to take huge funds from the country. The party politburo member Sitaram Yechuri demanded reintroduction of long term capital gains tax for share market investments to check volatility.



CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat has said that the Left parties will give priority to ensuring that the UPA Government does not pursue economic policies which do not serve the interests of the common people and which widen inequalities. In an article in the party organ, People’s Democracy, Karat said the focus of the Left parties after their victory in the Assembly elections in West Bengal and Kerala would be on the economic and foreign policies of the Manmohan Singh Government. He said a significant struggle lay ahead to reverse the pro-US orientation of the UPA Government and to strengthen and autonomy of the country’s foreign policy and strategic decision making.



In a related development, Gurudas Dasgupta of the CPI has written to the Prime Minister cautioning the government against any move to reduce the employees provident fund interest rate by half a percentage point to 8 per cent. He said instead the Government should increase the EPF interest rate to its earlier 9.5 per cent, he said.



The CPI(M) has termed the decision of the UPA Government to join the US-sponsored Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan gas pipeline project disturbing. The party politburo in a statement said the decision was taken at a juncture when the US openly declared its opposition to the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project. The statement said that it is disturbing that the Manmohan Singh Government is giving priority to US strategic interests and sidelining Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project which is more suited to India’s economic interests.





Keep prices in check : Sonia Gandhi



Another indication that there would be increasing Congress monitoring of the Manmohan Singh Government policies, came in Sonia Gandhi’s address to the Congress Parliamentary Party on Monday, May 15, when she asked the Prime Minister to ensure that prices do not rise because of speculation, that farmers are protected from the impact of wheat import, that the party gets feedback on the Government’s flagship schemes for the poor and that the recommendations of the National Commission for Farmers are implemented. Sonia Gandhi in her address also wanted steps to ensure social security for unorganised labour.



Sonia Gandhi steered cleared of the issue of reservation in educational institutions, but dealt at length with a range of other issues from the Assembly election results to checking demolitions in Delhi.



With the controversy on the import of 35 lakh tonnes of wheat on her mind, Sonia Gandhi said that the wheat situation needed to be monitored. “While we must make sure that there are sufficient buffer stocks, the interests of wheat growers must be protected from the impact of any large scale imports,” she said.



Turning to the monsoons, she said, “I am sure the Government is closely monitoring the situation, and will not allow the prices of essential commodities to be subject to speculation on the fate of the monsoons.



On the Assembly poll in Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Punjab, scheduled in six-seven months from now, Sonia Gandhi wanted the party to double its efforts to ensure good results as we are the incumbent in two of these states.



Turning to the communal flare up in Vadodara, she squarely blamed the “insensitive and blatantly partisan” administration led by Narendra Modi “All of us must remain constantly alert, vigilant, she said.



On the Doda killings, she said the terrorist attacks are a grim reminder that “We have to remain determined to fight these enemies of peace and harmony and their sponsors.”





Rahul Gandhi may get organizational post



The quota issue dominated the discussions of the Congress Working Committee meeting held in New Delhi on Saturday, May 20. The highest decision-making body of the Congress hailed party chief Sonia Gandhi’s victory in Rae Bareli, lauded Rahul Gandhi’s good work there and congratulated the Prime Minister and the party president on the UPA Government’s two years in office, appreciating the Government’s performance on all fronts. One of the three resolutions passed at the meeting congratulated the electorate for the victory of UPA partners and their allies in the recently held Assembly elections. The resolution said, the “the grand success of the UPA and the total rejection of the NDA led by BJP is clear evidence that the Indian electorate has rejected the politics of dividing the country on communal lines.”



Observers note that Sonia Gandhi herself had appreciated Rahul Gandhi’s good work in the by election in Rae Bareli and had indicated that he would be given an organizational role. Reports say that he may be inducted into the party machine as a general secretary.



Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee who is heading the PM-constituted Group of Ministers on reservation, briefed the CWC about the Group of Ministers’ work and his meetings with the agitating medicos. Dr. Manmohan Singh told the CWC that the Government will look into the GoM’s report and implement the reservation proposal keeping the interests of all sections of students, sources said.



During the meeting, Arjun Singh who has drawn flak from various quarters, including from his own party and government for his OBC quota proposal tried to clear the air, according to sources. He is reported to have said that there was nothing new in the proposal which was only a follow-up of the constitution amendment passed by Parliament in December last year. Some other CWC members also briefly spoke on the quota issue, raising the point that the quota proposal might be challenged legally. Sonia Gandhi reportedly did not speak on the issue.



The Prime Minister briefed the CWC about the Government’s performance over the last two years and also referred to his initiatives for peace in Jammu and Kashmir.



Briefing media persons, Pranab Mukherjee said the GoM has “taken into account interests of all sections of the student community, “ meaning thereby that the government’s compromise formula would accommodate the stakes of the OBCs as well as non-reserved category students.