UP polling ends tomorrow : Parties keep fingers crossed,Indian Politics, News Analysis, India News Online

With people in 59 constituencies voting in the seventh and last phase of Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh tomorrow (May 8), major political parties - Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, and the Bharatiya Janata Party - all hopeful of making it to power, are keeping their fingers crossed on the outcome of the elections which will be known on Friday, May 11.

Exit polls conducted after the first six phases of the polling have predicted major gains for the BSP, saying that the party will emerge as the single largest party with anywhere from 125 to 140 seats in the 403 member State Assembly. There is a keen tussle between the ruling Samajwadi Party and the BJP for the second slot in the State, as per the projections of the exit and opinion polls. The Congress, the leading light of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), which is ruling at the Centre, is nowhere in the picture, but hopes to improve its performance to be in a position to play a role in the formation of the next government in the State.

All parties recognise that success in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections would be crucial in their game plan to play a larger role at the Centre. The poll outcome will also have an impact on the Presidential election to be held shortly. President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam’s tenure comes to an end on July 24.

Recognising the crucial importance of the UP elections, different political parties stepped up their efforts last week to woo the voters. The BJP is reported to have organised as many as 350 public meetings during the last three days before electioneering came to an end on Sunday evening for the last phase. Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party also reportedly addressed nearly a dozen rallies every day during the last few days. BSP supremo Mayawati tried her best to whip up the anti-incumbency factor by keeping up her talk of “Mulayam and Amar will go to jail.” She promised to end what she called the Samajwadi Party’s “goonda raj” and restore law and order in the State.

Focus on Yogi Adityanath

BJP’s top brass virtually descended on Gorakhpur, in eastern UP, during the last few days to cash in on party MP Yogi Adityanath’s influence in the region. L.K. Advani, Murli Manmohar Joshi, Rajnath Singh, Kalyan Singh and Sushma Swaraj were among the leaders used by the BJP to woo voters in the communally sensitive region. There have been low intensity communal flare ups in Gorakhpur during the last couple of years.

Among the campaigners for the Samajwadi Party were film stars Jayaprada and Jaya Bachchan, and Amar Singh, apart from Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Moderate polling in sixth phase

About 46 per cent of the 1.57 crore electorate cast their votes in the sixth and penultimate phase of the Assembly elections on Thursday, May 3. As in earlier phases, the polling was generally peaceful, thanks to the massive efforts made by the Election Commission. Criminals and tough elements were kept at bay as the security forces did not allow any unauthorised person to enter the polling booths.

Hung Assembly predicted : BSP continues to gain

Exit polls conducted after the penultimate phase of the elections, indicate that the BSP will substantially improve its position over the last elections held in 2002. The Samajwadi Party appears to have suffered major reverses, but no party is likely to get more than 140 seats in the 403-member Assembly if the exit poll projections come true.

The ‘Times Now-Hansa Research’ exit poll showed the BSP and the BJP-led alliance making minor gains in Thursday’s sixth phase at the expense of the SP, while the Congress and ‘others’ could more or less retain their tally from 2002. This poll made no projections for the State as a whole.

The ‘Star News-AC Nielsen’ poll indicated a similar trend in the sixth phase, but of a greater magnitude. It suggested that the SP could win 13 seats in this phase against the 20 it won last time, while the BSP could gain six seats over its 2002 tally and the BJP alliance three seats. The Congress, it said, would win no seats in the sixth phase while ‘others’ could win one. For the State as a whole, the ‘Star News’ poll projected the BSP winning 140 seats, the BJP-led front 110, and the SP finishing well below the three-figure mark, with 89 seats. The Congress would win 28 seats and others 35, the poll said.

The ‘NDTV-IMRB’ exit poll had projections for the sixth phase that were quite different from the rest. It showed both SP and BJP losing ground, with the BSP becoming the beneficiary of the decline in the number of seats of both rivals. The BSP, according to this poll, could gain upto eight seats in this phase alone.

For the State as a whole, however, the ‘NDTV’ poll predicted an almost dead heat between the three major contenders for power - BSP, SP and the BJP-led alliance. It estimated that the BSP would win 120-130 seats, SP 110-120, and the BJP front a similar number.

The ‘India TV-C Voter’ exit poll suggested that the BJP-led alliance was likely to more or less hold on to its 2002 tally in the sixth phase, while the SP was projected as a major loser in this region. The gains would go primarily to the BSP, but could also accrue, to a smaller extent, to the Congress and ‘others’ according to this poll. Like the ‘Times Now’ poll, ‘India TV’ too made no projections for the State as a whole.

If these exit polls turn out right, not only would the State end up with a hung Assembly, it might even find itself in a situation in which government formation could prove extremely difficult even with a realignment of forces.

Price rise and development emerge major issues

An opinion poll conducted by the Indian Express-CNN-IBN-CSDC has found that price rise was the major issue in the elections so far as 37 per cent of the voters were concerned. Development of the State was the major issue for 16 per cent voters, unemployment for 15 per cent and condition of farmers for 14 per cent. Corruption was considered as the major issue by 10 per cent of the voters while another eight per cent chose not to come out with any view.

Congress focus on ‘systematic loot’

The Congress focused on ending what it called the “reign of terror” in Uttar Pradesh under the Mulayam Singh Yadav Government and the need for putting an end to the “systematic loot” of the funds meant for the people. Congress president Sonia Gandhi addressing a public meeting in Varanasi on April 30 highlighted the poor law and order situation in the State and said, “those who tolerate crime are as guilty as the perpetrators.”

Attacking the opposition parties, Sonia Gandhi said the State had witnessed rule by the BSP, BJP and the Samajwadi Party. She said, “what is interesting is that these parties join hands to capture power. When their interests clash, they separate. You must reject the opportunists. Uttar Pradesh is in bad shape.”

During the last fortnight, the Congress came out with Statements from its leaders attacking the Mulayam Singh Yadav government. Continuing the offensive, senior Congress leader Kapil Sibal accused the Samajwadi Party government of mishandling the Centre’s Food for Work scheme and the Sampuran Gramin Rozgar Yojna (Rural Employment Scheme). The party also alleged favouritism in allotment of plots in Noida despite former Chief Justice of India Y.K. Sabharwal’s rejoinder that his daughter got a plot through a draw of lots.

Kapil Sibal alleged that foodgrains meant for payment as remuneration to people below the poverty line were diverted to Bangladesh by private firms in Uttar Pradesh with the help of officials. He said a “systematic loot” was taking place in the State and the Samajwadi Party government was not even willing to permit the CBI to probe the scam which “runs into crores of rupees.”

Sibal alleged that 90 per cent of the foodgrains given by the Centre were diverted to Nepal and Bangladesh in at least 30 districts and no action was taken against any officers or private player.

Sibal who had on April 29 distributed a list of high-profile individuals who were allotted plots in Noida, also rubbished the theory of “draw of lots.” Former Chief Justice Y.K. Sabhwarwal had strongly reacted to Sibal’s Statement that his daughter was one of the allotees. Sibal said if the draw of lots theory was true, then how was it possible that seven members of Flex Industries, who had given the same address, four Advocate Generals of Uttar Pradesh and only Samajwadi Party MPs and MLAs got plots.

Rahul Gandhi may pull crowds, not votes

Despite the good response to Congress MP Rahul Gandhi’s roadshows, not many observers are hopeful of the young Congress leader getting the people to vote for the party. The roadshows are not expected to make a significant difference for the Congress party, which could win just 25 seats in the 2002 Assembly elections. The performance might be a little better this time, but there will be no striking improvement over the last elections, observers are of the view.

Rahul Gandhi in his speeches has been lashing out at what he called “goonda raj” in Uttar Pradesh. But these strong words may not fetch the votes. Rahul Gandhi has also been emphasising the role of youth power in making Uttar Pradesh a model State. Addressing a public meeting at Rajgarh in Mirzapur district on May 1, Rahul Gandhi said, “sixty per cent population of the State is youth. We need to think with a new and modern outlook. Then we will be able to transform the State into a modern and model State. This change could be brought about by youth power only.”

Sonia Gandhi at a meeting in Allahabad on April 30 debunked BJP’s pet poll plank of “national security.” She pointed out that terror attacks on Akashardham temple in Gujarat and Parliament had taken place during NDA rule. She said the BJP-led government also handed over three dreaded terrorists to resolve the Kandhar plane hijack crisis. Sonia Gandhi alleged that forces seeking to divide society on the lines of caste and religion had gained ground in Uttar Pradesh during the last 18 years when the Congress had remained out of power in the State.

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Security lapse at hotel where Rahul Gandhi was staying

Two armed BSP workers were arrested on May 3 from a local hotel where Congress MP Rahul Gandhi was staying. They were caught by the Special Protection Group (SPG) personnel guarding Gandhi who checked in at the Krishna Palace hotel after the day’s electioneering, police sources said. They said a revolver and a pistol, both licensed, were seized from the duo.

Rahul Gandhi was staying in the top floor of the hotel where his entourage had booked 35 rooms, the sources said. The hotel is jointly owned by Ashok Singh, the BSP candidate from Dudauli Assembly constituency in Barabanki district and his brother Nirankar Singh.

After the arrest, sources said, Rahul Gandhi, was shifted to a private residence for the night. BSP chief Mayawati has suspended the two workers from the party.

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No sanyas for Atal

Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has not taken kindly to RSS mouthpiece Panchjanya announcing his desire to quit active politics. An editorial in the RSS organ had referred to comments attributed to Vajpayee in the context of a report that he had agreed to campaign in Uttar Pradesh after a “lot of effort.” After Vajpayee’s displeasure at the editorial was conveyed to the RSS and BJP leaders, the Sangh mouthpiece went on the backfoot saying it had made a mistake.

Panchjanya editor Tarun Vijay conceded that Vajpayee’s comments on his retirement were a year old. He had spoken of his retirement at the BJP’s silver jubilee fete in Mumbai in December 2005 when he had described L.K. Advani and Pramod Mahajan as “Ram” and “Lakshman” who would lead the party.

This time, the RSS journal’s reference to Vajpayee had come after party president Rajnath Singh told a TV channel that Advani would be the party’s choice for the post of Prime Minister after Vajpayee.

Replying to a question on who the party would project as its prime ministerial choice, Rajnath Singh said: “After Atal it’s only Advani. Advaniji is the natural choice. He should be PM.”

In the interview to a private TV channel, the party chief was at pains to disclaim any intention to rival Advani, for long Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s understudy. “Nature has its own law and Rajnath cannot fight it. One should not play around with nature,” said Singh.

The “concession” was variously interpreted in saffron circles, with quite a few seeing the invisible hand of the RSS at work. RSS’ unhappiness with Advani after his remarks on Jinnah in Pakistan was instrumental in Singh’s elevation. The Sangh leadership has since mellowed and, responding to several overtures from Advani, appears to have buried the Jinnah hatchet.

Indicative of the patch-up is the fact that Sangh leaders Mohan Rao Bhagwat and Suresh Soni have been spotted regularly at functions at Advani’s residence.

Singh’s decision to make way for Advani is also significant because of its timing, coming when the party is widely seen to have been resurgent, having notched significant victories in States.

A bad back prevented Atal Bihari Vajpayee from casting his vote in Lucknow during the Assembly elections.

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Seven-phase poll justified : CEC

Chief Election Commissioner N. Gopalaswami has justified the seven-phase election for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly. In an interview given to various newspapers, he said the Election Commission’s action has ensured free and fair polls. He said there were very few instances of repolling. Only in five or six constituencies so far, repolling has been ordered while in past elections, repolling had to take place in more than a hundred constituencies.

Gopalaswami denied Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav’s charge that the security measures taken by the Election Commission resulted in a poor voter turnout. He said the average voting never exceeded 60 per cent in past elections. It was less by about 10 per cent this time as bogus voting had been prevented.

Breaking his silence for the first time since the BJP objected to Navin Chawla’s presence on the Election Commission, Gopalaswami said the Election Commissioners need to have broader acceptance and the process of their appointment needs to be bipartisan.

Gopalaswami said, “The appointments (to the post of Election Commissioners) should have across-the-board acceptance than what we have now....The decision-making process (that leads to the appointment of the members of the Commision) has to be bipartisan.”

The Election Commissioners are appointed by the President on the advice of the Prime Minsiter and his Cabinet.

“My predecessor (B.B. Tandon) had already made his view clear,” said Gopalaswami, referring to a proposal to insulate the ECs’ appointment from politics. According to this proposal, which is pending before the Government, the leader of the Opposition and the Chief Justice of India or a Supreme Court judge should be included in the panel that will have the Prime Minsiter and the Law Minister.

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Government formation : Parties start loud talk

Even before the final phase of polling tomorrow and the declaration of results on Friday, May 11, different political parties have started speaking out on the shape of things to come.

With all pointers towards a hung Assembly, different permutations and combinations are being talked about, often without sticking to ideology.

Both the Samajwadi Party and the BJP, in their quest to keep BSP chief Mayawati out of power, are reported to be considering adopting the Jharkhand model for Uttar Pradesh in case of a hung Assembly.

Sources said Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav and BJP chief ministerial candidate Kalyan Singh, both of whom nurse a strong grudge against Mayawati, are thinking of propelling a neutral person as Chief Minister and then extending outside support to that government as has been the case in Jharkhand where the Congress and the RJD have lent outside support to Chief Minister Madhu Koda.

This operation, “Stop Mayawati”, has the sanction of BJP President Rajnath Singh, the sources said.

This would not only help Mulayam Singh Yadav to retain his Muslim support base but would help the BJP and the SP to retain their respective core constituencies, a senior BJP leader from UP said.

The “Stop Mayawati” operation is expected to be launched immediately after the declaration of the UP Assembly election results.

The SP and the BJP are expected to emerge with about 100 seats each and neither of the two would be in a position to form a government on its own, thus leading to this arrangement, the sources said.

Indications were that RLD leader Ajit Singh or Apna Dal leader Sonelal Patel or even a Muslim face may be projected as Chief Minister with outside support of the BJP and the SP.

CPI(M) for secular government

CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat has said that the party would like a secular government to take office in Uttar Pradesh after the Assembly elections. Addressing newspersons in New Delhi on April 29, he expressed the hope that the BSP will not join hands with the BJP after the Assembly elections. He recalled that the BSP and the BJP had come together on two occasions in the past and hoped that it would not happen this time.

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