UP Elections : Three-way fight emerging,Indian Politics, News Analysis, India News Online

With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), backed by the RSS, making an all out effort to improve its position, a three-way split of the popular vote is emerging after two rounds of the seven-phase polling in the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. Exit poll projections after the second phase of polling on April 13 indicate that the BJP is close on the heels of the Samajwadi Party, ruling the state, which is just behind Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) likely to emerge as the top dog in the contest. The Congress, despite campaigning by Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi, is said to finish a poor fourth in the electoral contest.

Four separate exit polls conducted by Times Now, Star News, NDTV and India TV - all indicate that the BSP will do significantly better in Western UP where the polling was held in the second phase than it did in the last elections held in 2002. Two of the polls which made projections for the entire state based on the exit polls conducted after the first two phases of polling, suggest that the BSP would emerge as the single largest party, but would not get more than 135 seats in the 403 member Assembly.

All the exit polls indicate that the Samajwadi Party and the BJP would be vying for the second spot in the state, a vast improvement for the BJP from the 60 seats some opinion polls had suggested earlier that the party would get.

The Times Now-Hansa poll suggested a near repeat of the 2002 results in the second phase. It projected that the BSP would win between 17 and 21 seats, up from 15 in 2002, while the BJP alliance could win 12-16 seats against the 13 it won in 2002. Ajit Singh’s RLD is projected by this poll to get 8-12 seats against the 11 it won last time, SP 7-11 and the Congress 2-6. Times Now made no projections for the entire state.

The Star News-AC Nielsen poll said the SP was likely to win 4 seats, BSP 19, BJP and its allies 12, Congress six and RLD 11. For the state as a whole, it projected BSP to finish with 135 seats, SP with 100 and the BJP alliance with 101 seats. The Congress was projected to win 28 seats in the state.

The NDTV exit poll, done by IMRB, shows SP, BSP and Congress more or less holding on to what they had in 2002, but BJP making gains at the expense of the RLD.

Low turnout in peaceful poll

Barring some minor incidents, the second phase of polling on April 13 was described by observers as the most peaceful ever in the state’s turbulent western areas dominated by the jat (farmer) community. But the voting percentage was 46 only against 52.9 recorded in the last Assembly elections. Stern steps taken by the Election Commission resulted in the peaceful polling, but also perhaps led to decline in the number of people exercising their franchise. State Chief Electoral Officer A.K. Bishnoi, speaking about the low turnout, said, “It indicates that no bogus vote was cast this time.”

BJP’s upsurge

Apart from intensive campaigning by the top BJP leaders and active involvement of the RSS, observers say that the party may also have been helped by the polarisation of voters on communal lines brought about by tactics such as release of an anti-Muslim CD, withdrawn later after exposure in the media and intensive advertising over radio as well as the print medium. The party will get another boost in the remaining five phases of polling with Bharatiya Janshakti Party chief Uma Bharati’s decision to withdraw all her party candidates in favour of the BJP. The Sangh Parivar played a crucial role in bringing about a tacit understanding between Uma Bharati and the BJP, which is looking at the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections as the first step of its campaign to regain power at the Centre.

Observers say that Uma Bharati’s announcement may have little impact on the poll scene on the ground, but is an indication of the renewed role of the Sangh Parivar, particularly VHP chief Ashok Singhal, in the affairs of the BJP. It also points to the new “synergy” between the Sangh and the Rajnath Singh-led BJP.

While Uma Bharati denied that the move was a precursor to her return to the BJP, her “conciliatory gesture” will certainly strengthen the hands of people who have been keen on bringing her back, sources said.

Bharati’s announcement at a press conference in New Delhi on April 13 came a day after Singhal publicly appealed to her to withdraw all her party candidates in the UP polls. Bharati declared that she was responding to the appeal to avoid “division of Hindus in the larger interest of the country.”

Uma Bharati’s decision to withdraw her party’s candidates in Uttar Pradesh had a fall out in Delhi when Madan Lal Khurana, resigned as acting president of the party. He said on April 14 that he would soon float a new party of his own that would work for the development of Delhi and strive to get it the status of a full state. Khurana said he was resigning from Uma Bharati’s party as he had not been consulted over the withdrawal of BJS candidates in the Uttar Pradesh elections.

All BJP leaders campaigning, but not the master orator

While almost all top BJP leaders are busy on the campaign trail in Uttar Pradesh, former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, reputedly the party’s “master orator” who has never shied away from a poll podium, is not to be seen. Campaigning for the second phase of the Assembly elections came to an end on April 11 without Vajpayee making a single trip to the state.

Sources said BJP poll managers have been trying to persuade their star campaigner to give a commitment for the third phase. Vajpayee may eventually campaign, but so far no dates have been given.

His absence is a cause of concern for the BJP, especially because of his ability to mobilise Brahmins. With Mayavati’s BSP fielding the maximum number of Brahmin candidates, the BJP’s poll strategists are anxious about which way the community would vote.

Party leaders are wondering whether a wound caused by a caustic comment by Kalyan Singh when he was a dissident is still raw. Kalyan, who is now back in the BJP, had then said Vajpayee is a “tired” Prime Minister who ran the country with the help of “retired” bureaucrats.

Respite for BJP on CD issue

The BJP has won a temporary reprieve from the threat of de-recognition for its alleged role in the release of an anti-Muslim inflammatory CD, with the Election Commission reserving its order on the saffron party’s petition seeking that Navin Chawla, one of the three Election Commissioners, should recuse himself from the hearing on the case. The Commission concluded its hearing on the BJP’s demand on Thursday, April 12, and the EC is now likely to pronounce its order on the issue on April 19. With the issue of notification for the seventh and final phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh on Friday, April 13, the de-recognition threat appears to have receded substantially.

The poll panel will now have to take a call on the BJP’s demand first, while the clamour among ‘secular’ parties to get the BJP removed from the poll scene will be taken up later.

Also the appearance of new CDs, this time loaded with content aimed at polarising Muslims behind a particular party, is expected to complicate matters for the poll panel.

That the BJP had successfully managed to divert the attention of the EC from the CDs in question to Chawla’s right to sit on judgement on the BJP’s fate, was acknowledged by the Congress.

Accusing the BJP of adopting diversionary tactics, Union Minister Kapil Sibal, who represented the Congress before the poll panel, said that if the principal opposition party wanted to stop proceedings, it should go to the courts.

There was also a discernible shift in the demand, with the ‘de-recognition’ call giving way to seeking some sort of administrative action. Sibal claimed that the EC had assured his party that “a quick and speedy administrative action” would be initiated before April 19 to stop “the distribution and use” of the controversial anti-Muslim CD in UP.

The BJP has demanded that Chawla should withdraw himself from the hearing on the CD case on the ground that his continuance on the poll panel itself has been challenged by the party on the ground that he could not be expected to play the role of a neutral umpire, given the petition pending against him in the Supreme Court.

Former Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad, who represented the BJP on the second consecutive day of the hearing, made it clear that his party would continue to insist on a decision on Chawla before the CD case is heard.

With the BJP refusing to relent, the Commission perforce gave an assurance that a decision on the matter would be taken by the next hearing which was deferred by a week.

Observers say to keep the focus on Election Commissioner Navin Chawla, the BJP is prepared to force a crisis on the issue in case the EC decides that he would be present at the hearing in the CD case. With the objective of buying time, the BJP is preparing to go to court if the verdict goes against the party.

“If the verdict (on Chawla) goes against us, we will appeal in the Supreme Court,” said party general secretary Arun Jaitely. The party’s strategy is evidently to delay a hearing on the main CD case to the point where any decision like freezing the BJP symbol or de-recognition would throw the Uttar Pradesh poll process into disarray.

EC seeks status report on CD

The Election Commission has sought a report from the Uttar Pradesh Chief Electoral Officer on the FIRs filed against the BJP leaders responsible for the release of the anti-Muslim CD. The Commission has also directed that in case, the CD was still in circulation, it should be seized.

The direction was a sequel to the demands made by the Congress and the CPI (M) on Thursday that the Commission issue administrative instructions to stop the distribution and circulation of the controversial CD. They alleged that despite the BJP’s claim that the CD had been withdrawn, it was still being circulated.

The Commission directed that FIRs be filed against, besides BJP president Rajnath Singh and senior party leader Lalji Tandon, all those responsible for the production and distribution of the CD including the actors and the scriptwriter. Accordingly, the FIRs were registered.

EC reprimands Sharad Pawar

In another development, the Commission held that the announcement of a sugar package by Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar amounted to violation of the model code of conduct when the Assembly election process was on. In a communication to the Cabinet Secretary, the Commission said there was a deliberate violation of the model code.

As this was the second violation, the Commission decided to reprimand Pawar. Referring to newspaper reports on the issue, which was considered by the CCEA meeting, the Commission said: “It clearly confirms that substantive political mileage has been immediately derived through communication to the media in whatever manner regarding the information of the said scheme and through the statements of Pawar.”

“Provocative” BJP ad

Despite the storm over the anti-Muslim CD, the BJP appears to be continuing with its line of polarising voters on communal lines. On Wednesday, April 11, a newspaper advertisement published in western UP areas allegedly targeted the minority. Observers say the ad clearly targets the Muslim community, questions its credibility and claims that it is party’s duty to inform the citizens about such anti-national elements.

While the ad predictably raised a political storm, an unrepentant BJP claimed that it had done the “nation a favour.”

What is more, the BJP also implied that the blatantly divisive ad had been approved by the Election Commission. Asked whether the ad was approved by the EC, former BJP state president and Rajya Sabha member Kalraj Mishra said, “It must have been, else by now the EC might have objected to it.”

“Kya inka irada pak hai” (is their intention pious) - screamed the advertisement with the word pak highlighted in green. Implicit in the ad was that Muslims and SIMI were anti-Indian.

The ad also claimed that instead of taking serious note of their activities, political parties like the Congress, SP and BSP were protecting them.

The BJP ad claimed that though militants were being trained in madarasas, these parties were indulging in their policy of appeasement to the extent that there was competition amongst them to save Afzal Guru - convicted in the Parliament attack case - from being hanged.

It also claimed that these parties were opposed to the singing of Vande Mataram and Saraswati Vandana.

Apex court’s final hearing on Navin Chawla issue on May 8

The Supreme Court has fixed May 8 for the final hearing of the BJP petition seeking removal of Navin Chawla as Election Commissioner. At the hearing on Friday, April 13, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s decision to refer a BJP-sponsored memorandum challenging Chawla’s appointment to the Election Commission to the Union Cabinet, rather than the Chief Election Commissioner, came under scrutiny.

A division bench comprising Justices Ashok Bhan and S. Sripukar, wondered “how could in such matters, the presidential reference be referred to the cabinet for its opinion.

“Instead of the Cabinet’s opinion, the opinion of the Chief Election Commissioner should have been obtained”, observed the court, lending credence to the BJP’s charge that the Manmohan Singh government had erred in directing the Presidential reference to the Union Cabinet.

On its part, the Union Cabinet, it may be mentioned, had referred the issue to Attorney General Milon K. Banerjee for his views. The latter subsequently, cleared Chawla’s appointment to the poll panel, arguing that there was nothing “irregular” in the government’s decision.

Additional Solicitor General Gopal Subramaniam, appearing on behalf of the Centre, however, justified the move to refer the presidential reference to the cabinet for its opinion.

“The cabinet is fully competent to give its advice to the President in the appointment of the Election Commissioner,” argued Subramaniam.

Congress campaign : Priyanka and Sonia join Rahul Gandhi

While Rahul Gandhi continues his road shows in Uttar Pradesh, his mother Sonia Gandhi and sister Priyanka Vadra joined the party’s campaign for a couple of days last week. Priyanka concentrated on Amethi represented in the Lok Sabha by her brother Rahul Gandhi. Observers say the Congress is in a shambles in the Gandhi’s stronghold because of internal bickerings and lack of communication between the local leaders and the voters. Priyanka during her three-day tour of the area tried to rescue the party, but how far her efforts succeed will be known only on the day of counting.

Shaelesh Kumari, the Congress election in charge of Ismailpur Nyaya Panchayat in Amethi said Priyanka and Rahul have met the voters more often than the party candidates. The voters see Indira Gandhi’s likeness in Priyanka and Rajiv Gandhi’s in Rahul. Only they can rescue the party.

R.P. Singh, a Congress candidate, was more blunt : “What do we have other than the Gandhis ?” he asked. “The voters do not want to know what we can do for them. They want to know what we have done for them so far. Here, we have failed to meet their aspirations as we have been out of power for over 17 years. The Gandhi family is why voters vote for the Congress here,” he said.

Speaking in Ghaziabad on April 11, Sonia Gandhi urged voters in Uttar Pradesh to throw out a “useless king” and deliver the state from 17 years of darkness.

“Andher nagri, chaupat raja (Dark is the nation and thoroughly useless is the king),” the Congress chief told a packed crowd at Ghaziabad’s Ram Lila ground, 15 km from the capital, as she lashed out at the Mulayam Singh Yadav regime.

Not once, however, did she take the Chief Minister’s name. Sonia harked back to the state’s “lost glory and heritage” and contrasted it with the “present-day chaos, despondency and terror”.

Sonia said other parties, which ruled the state for the last 17 years, were “self-servers”. “Some say they work for the Yadavs, others say they are for the Dalits. Some have exploited religion but their end objective is the same - to grab power, live happily and deceive people. How long will this continue ?”

In Moradabad, on April 13, Rahul Gandhi echoed Sonia Gandhi’s tune. Time was, Rahul said, when Uttar Pradesh was foremost among states in every sphere referring to its contribution to the Freedom Movement and the “period of development, peace and stability” during the Congress regime.

“Over the past 15 years, not much work has been done. Schools, hospitals and the power situation is pathetic,” he said.

Narendra Modi not doing his raj dharama : Sonia

Congress president Sonia Gandhi took time off from campaigning in Uttar Pradesh to go to Porbandar, the birth place of Mahatma Gandhi, on Friday, April 13, and attacked the Narendra Modi government in Gujarat for spreading ‘hatred and violence.’ Speaking at a large rally bringing to an end the fortnight long Mahatma Gandhi Sandesh Cycle Yatra, organised by the Congress, Sonia Gandhi lamented that the place of Mahatma Gandhi’s birth was fast drifting away from his ideals.

Without naming anyone, Sonia said the present regime was supporting people who spread communal hatred and violence even as it claimed to follow the Mahatma’s ideals. Those responsible for killing Gandhiji are now taking his name, she said. “Unke dil mein kuchh hain, zabaan mein kuchh aur” (they have Gandhi on their lips, but hatred in their hearts)”, she said.

Reminding Congressmen of their duty to teach Gujarat’s rulers about “raj dharma”, Sonia criticised the BJP’s policy of discriminating between people. Earlier, the then Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee had, after a day-long tour of relief camps, housing the 2002 riot survivors, advised Chief Minister Narendra Modi to follow raj dharma, saying it meant there should not be any discrimination on the basis of caste, creed and religion.

Mulayam talks of Third Front

Faced with opinion and exit polls predicting reverses for the Samajwadi Party, its chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has started talking of a broad-based Third Front at the Centre comprising leaders from all the four corners of the country. At a rally held in Bareily on April 8, the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister said the Samajwadi Party’s success in the Assembly elections holds the key to the formation of a viable alternative at the Centre comprising like-minded parties.

The Bareilly rally assumes significance in the sense that all leading votaries of the Third Front - the former Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Haryana, (Chandrababu Naidu, S. Bangarappa, and Om Prakash Chautala respectively) - shared the dais with Mulayam Singh. AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa, who was scheduled to attend the meeting, did not turn up. Samajwadi Party general secretary Amar Singh read out Jayalalithaa’s message, which said she would attend the next rally in Allahabad.

Addressing the meeting, Mulayam Singh said results of the Assembly elections would change political equations in the country. Himself a strong supporter of the Third Front, he said the outcome of the UP elections would have a bearing on national politics.

Naidu, in his address read out in Hindi, said the TDP and like-minded parties were not only striving for SP’s success in the polls but were also trying to change the face of the country. He assailed the Congress for its “sham secularism” and ridiculed Rahul Gandhi for his recent statement on the Babri Masjid demolition. Besides, he slammed the BJP for trying to divide society on religious lines.

Stating that the people were annoyed with the BJP and the Congress, Chautala said the U.P. elections were crucial as they would write the course of India’s politics.

Bangarappa, an MP of the Samajwadi Party, urged the Left parties to give serious thought to the formation of an alternative at the national level. He said the UPA Government at the Centre was “unstable” and the verdict in favour of the SP would have a bearing on national politics.

Suspended Congress MP and the former External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh said the outcome of the U.P. polls would seal the fate of the UPA Government, which he added, should be thrown out of power.

BSP has most ‘criminal’ candidates

The BSP has fielded the maximum number of candidates with criminal background followed by the BJP in the first and second phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, an election monitoring organisation has claimed.

While the Samajwadi Party topped the chart of crorepati candidates in the first phase of polls it was its arch rival BSP in the second, Uttar Pradesh Election Watch (UPEW) said.

Analysing the affidavits filed by candidates in the first two phases, the organisation claimed that BSP topped the list of candidates with criminal background as 33.33 per cent of them were facing such charges followed by BJP (27.03 per cent) and SP (26.5 per cent). Congress and RLD are not far behind with 20.17 per cent, and 18.31 per cent of their candidates facing criminal charges, former State DGP and convener of UPEW, I.C. Dwivedi told reporters in Lucknow.

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