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UP Elections : Mixed signals from exit polls

	April 30, 2007

With five phases of the seven-phase Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections coming to an end on Saturday, April 28, mixed signals are emerging from the exit polls conducted by various TV channels and media organisations. While one exit poll showed that the BJP and the Congress are doing much better in the fifth phase, two others projected a near repeat of the 2002 Assembly election, and a fourth showed the BJP performing poorly.



Two of the exit polls which also projected the election scenario overall, made differing forecasts. One confirmed the trend that Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is set to emerge as a clear leader with the BJP and the Samajwadi Party in second and third place respectively, the other projected that a three-way fight is emerging with very little difference between the BSP, the BJP and the Samajwadi Party.



The Times Now-Hansa Research poll suggested that the Congress could gain somewhat in Saturday’s fifth phase, winning 5-9 seats against the 4 it won in 2002. The SP and the BSP would each win between 13 and 17 seats in this phase, while the BJP-led alliance could get 14-18 seats.



This projection is not markedly different from what happened in this part of the state in 2002. The poll made no predictions for the state as a whole.



The Star News -AC Nielsen poll ruled out major changes in seats, with the SP losing a couple, BSP gaining correspondingly, the BJP-led combine gaining one, “others” losing one and Congress retaining its tally of 6 seats. For the state as a whole, this poll saw the BSP comfortably ahead with 141 seats, followed by the BJP alliance with 104 and the SP with 91.



An NDTV exit poll projected 120 to 130 seats for the BSP, 114 to 125 for the BJP, 95 to 105 for the SP, 35 to 45 for the Congress and 15 to 25 for others in the 403-member Assembly.



Its projections for the 57 constituencies that went to the polls on Saturday showed 21 for the BJP, 14 for the BSP, 10 for the SP, nine for the Congress and three for others.



An India TV-C Voter exit poll only for the fifth phase of polling predicted 18 to 22 seats for the BSP, 12 to 16 for the SP, eight to 12 for the BJP, seven to 11 for the Congress and three to seven for others.





Emerging political alignments



With exit and opinion polls predicting significant gains for the BSP and the BJP, new political alignments are emerging which may have an impact at the Centre also, sooner or later.



The Congress which has no prospect of coming anywhere near the top three political parties in the election race, has already given broad hints of its plans to do business with Mayawati’s BSP as the state is likely to get a hung Assembly. The Congress said that it would not ally with Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and the BJP, indicating that a tie up with the BSP was possible. Party spokesperson Dwivedi said in New Delhi on April 24, “the SP and the BJP will be out of the equation in the post-poll scenario in Uttar Pradesh.” He refused to elaborate, but observers say that it is apparent that the Congress could consider aligning with the BSP if it adds up to a simple majority in the state.



The Congress which sharply attacked both the SP and BJP holding them responsible for the state’s “drift from the national mainstream” in the past 17 years, was remarkably charitable towards the predominantly Dalit outfit.



“She (Mayawati) has been speaking a new language of late, using the metaphors of an inclusive society,” party spokesman Devendra Dwivedi said, He clearly drew a distinction between the BSP and the other two major players in the ongoing assembly elections. Interestingly, Congress chief Sonia Gandhi has refrained from attacking Mayawati severely during her extensive poll campaign in the state even when the BSP leader has not spared the Congress.



Observers say even though the exit polls so far have not projected the emergence of the Congress as a major player in the UP elections, the party has begun to eye the kingmaker slot for itself after the elections.



With the polls suggesting a sharp decline in the SP’s share of votes and seats, the Congress claimed it would have a definite say in government making. It claimed that young party leader Rahul Gandhi’s campaign made qualitative difference to the poll scene. “Rahul Gandhi is trying to bring UP back to the national mainstream with hi s agenda of good governance and development,” he said.





SP not ruling out joining hands with NDA : Natwar Singh



On the other side of the political spectrum, it is emerging that the Samajwadi Party may join hands with the National Democratic Alliance, in other words the BJP, to form the next government in the state. Former External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh, who has been suspended from the Congress, and for all practical purposes, has joined hands with the Samajwadi Party, said in Lucknow that he did not rule out a difficult decision of the SP joining hands with the NDA, that in Uttar Pradesh context means the BJP.



Repeating a cliche that “everything was possible in UP politics”, Natwar Singh said that if was a difficult choice because of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s secular credentials.



Considering that SP depends heavily on the Yadav-Muslim vote bank the statement coming as it does in the middle of the seven-phase Assembly elections has far reaching implications.



Natwar Singh’s statement is a clear indication of the SP’s long-term strategy for which the party has recently assembled a string of NDA alliance partners in two election meetings held at Barelli and Allahabad.



Singh admitted that after the election, Yadav has scheduled a meeting at Tirupati with AIADMK leader J Jayalalitha, TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu, INLD’s Om Prakash Chautala, AGP leader Brindavan Goswami and SP’s S Bangarappa to chalk out the future course of action.



For record, the Third Front as defined by Yadav is a non-Congress non-BJP broad alliance in which even the CPI(M) has shown interest. However, Singh has now confirmed what the Congress and Jan Morcha have been charging for a long time



Responding to this statement, Jan Morcha convener Raj Babbar said Natwar Singh’s statement did not come as a surprise as SP had realised that it was not going to form the next government in UP.



On her maiden visit to Uttar Pradesh to campaign for the Samajwadi Party, former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and AIADMK president Jayalalithaa, on April 23, assailed UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi for accusing Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav of misusing Central funds.



She said instead of asking Singh to furnish details, Gandhi should ask Bofors case accused Ottavio Quattrocchi where he had squandered India’s money.



Observers say with Jayalalithaa batting for SP, the contours of a Third Front at the national level became more visible.



Addressing an election meeting in Allahabad, Jayalalithaa said the money given to the States was not a dole. It was the States’ share of the Central taxes.



Jayalalithaa described Mulayam Singh as a champion of secularism and lauded him for taking the initiative to form a secular alliance in the interest of the minorities, especially the Muslims.



Present at the meeting were the former Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Haryana - Chandrababu Naidu, S. Bangarappa and O.P. Chautala.



Telugu Desam Party president Chandrababu Naidu said the Congress indulged in double-speak on secularism. He attacked Rahul Gandhi for speaking on the Babri masjid demolition and the division of Pakistan and scoffed at Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s proclamation that Rahul Gandhi was the future of Uttar Pradesh.



Claiming that formation of a Third Front was on the anvil, president of the Indian National Lok Dal Chautala said that the elections in Uttar Pradesh would decide the future of the country’s politics.



Vajpayee joins the campaign



At long last, former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee came to the state on April 25 to campaign for the BJP. He said the results of the Assembly elections on May 11 will usher in a new chapter in the state. Addressing a public meeting in Lucknow, he said just as India’s status had changed on May 11, nine years ago after the Pokharan explosions, the country’s politics would change on May 11 this year after the declaration of the Assembly election results in Uttar Pradesh.



Vajpayee said he was happy that the BJP was getting the people’s support. He said this was reflected in the party winning the Punjab and Uttarakhand elections held recently.



BJP’s master orator refuted reports that he was opposed to Kalyan Singh being projected as the shadow chief minister of Uttar Pradesh. Describing Kalyan Singh as an old colleague, the Lucknow MP said that they had worked together for years and would continue working together in the party.