UP Elections : EC announcement foils UPA move on President’s Rule,Indian Politics, News Analysis, India News Online

The Election Commission announced a seven-phase polling schedule for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections on Feb. 21, virtually foiling the Centre’s move to impose President’s Rule in the state. Though technically there is no bar on imposing President’s Rule under Art. 356 in a state where elections have been announced, the chances of this happening in Uttar Pradesh have gone down. The Election Commission announcement has met partly the concerns that elections under the Mulayam Singh Yadav Government would not be free and fair. The seven-phase poll will enable the Election Commission to monitor the campaigning and polling more closely, reducing the chances of rigging. A senior Congress leader from Uttar Pradesh admitted that after the EC announcement, there is less reason to seek Central rule in the state.

With diminishing prospects of President’s Rule, a blame-game appears to have started in the Congress on who was responsible for the entire fiasco of pressing for central rule in the state. Observers say that while the entire exercise appears to have been planned at the behest of Congress president Sonia Gandhi, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was also in the loop till the very end. It was Dr. Manmohan Singh who called up DMK chief and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi to seek his support for the central rule proposal. He also made a renewed attempt to bring round the CPI(M) with a meeting with party general secretary Prakash Karat on Tuesday, Feb. 20. There are reports that he also met President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam to brief him about the Government’s plans.

It was only after the Election Commission announcement that party president Sonia Gandhi appears to have directed the party to abandon the move for imposition of President’s Rule in Uttar Pradesh. Observers say that the episode has dented the moral authority of the Government and also widened the differences with the Left parties, especially the CPI(M).

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Seven phase polling

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Phase Date No. of constituencies to go for polling

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1. 7.4.07 62

2. 13.4.07 58

3 18.4.07 57

4 23.4.07 57

5. 28.4.07 58

6. 3.5.07 52

7. 8.5.07 59

Date of Counting : May 11

Note : Along with the Assembly polls, the EC will also hold Lok Sabha bypolls to Robertsgunj, Mirzapur and Bilaspur on the days the respective Assembly segments vote.

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The poll dates were announced by the three-member Commission following Chief Election Commissioner N. Gopalaswamy’s meeting with Home Secretary V.K. Duggal where the deployment of Central paramilitary and state police forces was finalised.

The announcement of the poll schedule, coming as it does just days before the Budget session, may put a few roadblocks for both the general and rail budgets. With Gopalaswamy making it clear that the Model Code of Conduct has come into effect immediately, the Government will now have to clear with the EC any UP-specific scheme or announcement planned in the Budget.

“My duty is to conduct elections within the stipulated time, the Budget is not my concern,” Gopalaswamy said. He declined to comment on what would be the EC’s position if President’s Rule were to be imposed in UP despite the poll announcement. “I will cross the bridge when it comes,” was all that CEC said on the matter.

Congress backtracks on “Oust Mulayam Campaign”

The Election Commission announcement finally led to the Congress giving up on its campaign to dismiss the Mulayam Singh Yadav Government with senior leaders of the AICC and the state Congress conceding that they had finally abandoned the “oust Mulayam campaign.” While a number of factors played their part, the most significant hurdle, observers say, was the Left parties’ opposition to the move. The Congress was also not sure if President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam would have endorsed the imposition of Art. 356 in Uttar Pradesh. Law Minister H.R. Bharadwaj is also reported to have cautioned his colleagues against the move to impose President’s Rule saying that it could invite judicial intervention. At a meeting of the Congress Working Committee on Feb. 19, leaders like Digvijay Singh reportedly disfavoured the idea of dismissing the Samajwadi Party Government in Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress Working Committee said that Mulayam Singh Yadav had forfeited the moral right to continue as Chief Minister after the Supreme Court verdict on 13 BSP rebels. Party general secretary Janardhan Dwivedi said afterwards that it was for the Centre to decide the next course of action. He said, “I have maintained that this is not a Congress government, but a UPA Government. If the Government has to take a decision, it will be done in consultation with our allies.”

Most of the time of the working committee was spent in discussing price rise, which is emerging as a challenge for the Government. Sources said Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, who is not a CWC member, was invited to the meeting as it turned into a question-answer session as most members asked why the Government was unable to check prices.

The Congress earlier made efforts to bring around the allies to support the move for imposition of President’s Rule in Uttar Pradesh. The DMK which had initially opposed the proposal, changed its mind and said that it would go with whatever the UPA decides on the question. The Congress was also able to secure the support of Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Ramvilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party had already come out in favour of the proposal for central rule in Uttar Pradesh.

Both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress president Sonia Gandhi reportedly discussed the matter with Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi on telephone.

There were also divisions in the National Democratic Alliance on the question of President’s Rule in Uttar Pradesh. The Shiromani Akali Dal and Janata Dal United said that they were against dislodging the Mulayam Singh Yadav Government through the use of Art. 356. This was in contrast with the BJP stand of supporting the Manmohan Singh Government in imposition of President’s Rule.

Samajwadi Party withdraws support to UPA

One upshot of the UP developments was Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party withdrawing support to the UPA Government at the Centre. Addressing senior party office bearers in Lucknow on Feb.21, Yadav said his party’s 36 MPs in the Lok Sabha and 16 in the Rajya Sabha will now act as an opposition party. He also urged the Left parties to end their support to the Manmohan Singh Government.

But the Left parties say that they will continue supporting the UPA and there was no danger to the stability of the Manmohan Singh Government.

The Samajwadi Party has demanded the recall of Uttar Pradesh Governor T.V. Rajeshwar alleging that he is acting in a partisan manner.

The Samajwadi Party also alleged that the Congress and the BJP joined hands to bring down its Government and that they had the support of a leading industrialist of the country to dislodge its government.

Delegations of the Samajwadi party and the Jan Morcha met President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam on Feb. 20 with contrary demands on Uttar Pradesh. The Samajwadi Party wanted the state Governor’s recall, while the Jan Morcha delegation led by former Prime Minister V.P. Singh demanded the dismissal of the Mulayam Singh Government.

Political problems over Central rule : CPI(M)

The CPI(M), which took a consistent stand on President’s Rule, said that there would be political problems if the Congress-led UPA went ahead with Central Rule in Uttar Pradesh.

At a meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Feb. 19, party general secretary Prakash Karat said that the Left under no circumstances will support the imposition of President’s Rule in the state. He said there would be political problems if the Government went ahead with its proposal. Earlier, on Feb. 18, the CPI(M) politburo warned the Congress to weigh the consequences of unilaterally sacking the Mulayam Singh Yadav Government. Speaking in New Delhi after the politburo meeting, Karat said Raj Bhavan or Delhi cannot decide the issue of majority. It can be decided only on the floor of the House. He said Art. 356 is draconian and should be amended to prevent its misuse.

In another significant statement, the CPI(M) said on Feb. 23 that the Samajwadi Party is the main secular force in Uttar Pradesh and that the Congress move will only help the BJP. An article in its party organ said, “seeking to dismiss the Mulayam Government and hoping to dent the Samajwadi Party support base can be beneficial only to the BJP or the BSP in the state.”

Legal experts say that the Supreme Court judgement in the Bommai Case of 1994 made it difficult to impose President’s Rule in Uttar Pradesh. The judgement defined the use of Art. 356 and the imposition of President’s Rule.

The judgement said: “Whenever a doubt arises whether the Council of Ministers has lost the confidence of the House, the only way of testing it is on the floor of the House. The sole exception to this will be a situation of all-pervasive violence where the Governor comes to the conclusion and records the same in his report that for the reasons mentioned by him, a free vote is not possible.”

The Standing Committee took the following decisions in regard to the ‘Emergency provisions’:

* Article 356 should be used as a measure of last resort.

* A show-cause notice be issued to the state government before taking action under Article 356, except in a situation when not taking immediate action would lead to disastrous consequences.

* In case of an ‘external aggression’ or ‘internal disturbance’ paralysing the state administration, all alternative courses available to the Union under Article 355 should be exhausted to contain the situation.

* Proclamation be placed before Parliament within two months of its issuance, and that the Legislative Assembly should not be dissolved before the Presidential Proclamation issued under Article 465(1) has been laid before Parliament and Parliament has had an opportunity to consider it.

* The Governor’s report be in the nature of a ‘speaking document.’

Allahabad HC rejects plea for disqualification of 24 BSP MLAs

In another setback for the Congress, the Allahabad High Court has rejected a public interest litigation seeking disqualification of 24 dissident BSP MLAs in the wake of the observations of the Supreme Court. The petition had been filed by a local Congress leader Raghunath Dwivedi. He had contended that the 24 MLAs stood automatically disqualified in view of the Supreme Court’s observations and hence they should not be allowed to take part in the proceedings of the Assembly and warrant should be issued to bar them from voting on Feb. 26.

During the hearing, the Bench observed that the court could not review or explain the apex court verdict under Art. 226 of the Constitution. UP Advocate General SMA Kazmi argued that in case of any contention or clarification regarding the Supreme Court judgement, the petitioner should appeal there.

UP developments and Presidential election

Observers say that the Uttar Pradesh developments will have repercussions on other matters such as who will be the next President of India and the prospects of the formation of a third front. The Congress gameplan was to emerge as a stronger player in Uttar Pradesh even though it has just about 20 seats in the outgoing Assembly. If the Congress does not improve its performance in the state Assembly elections, it may result in Mayawati’s BSP hitching an alliance with the BJP to come to power in the state. Both the BSP and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party are major players in the state, but may not be in a position to form the next government without support from other parties. At one point, it looked that the BSP would emerge as the most potent political force in Uttar Pradesh. But observers say that the Samajwadi Party has recovered some of the lost ground recently.

The next government in Uttar Pradesh will have a decisive impact on the Presidential election due in July this year. If the BSP aligns with the Congress, the national party will be in a stronger position to get a person of its choice elected as President. Otherwise, it will be an open race with the BJP and the Left having a decisive say in the choice of the next incumbent of the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

With polls for Uttar Pradesh scheduled for April-May, the state will figure importantly in he electoral college that elects the President of India.

The Congress which might have been attempting to limit the Samajwadi Party’s influence in the July 2007 presidential elections by pushing for Central Rule in UP, has to now contend with the prospect of the Left coming together with Mulayam Singh to propose a candidate.

Though there are a number of variables that need to be pinned down before the composition of the electoral college becomes clear, such as the results of Assembly polls in Punjab, Uttrakhand, Manipur, and UP itself, what is clear is that the Congress will need the support of its allies to get a candidate of its choice in Rashtrapati Bhavan. However, in the aftermath of the party’s campaign for President’s rule in Uttar Pradesh, there is the distinct possibility of the CPI(M) and the SP collaborating to put up a candidate.

Uttar Pradesh carries the maximum amount of weight in the presidential election. Each UP MLA’s vote carries value of 208 and the total value of the UP Assembly is 83,824 (208 multiplied by the number of constituencies in the state which is 403). This is a considerable chunk of the total value of votes in the electoral college which stands at 549474 for the state Assemblies.

The electoral college for the presidential elections consist of the elected members of both Houses of Parliament, the elected members of state Assemblies, including the NCT of Delhi and Union Territory of Pondicherry.

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