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Two horse race in Gujarat elections

	October 22, 2007

Reports from Gujarat say that the state will again witness a two horse race in the Assembly elections despite attempts by outfits like the Bahujan Samaj Party to increase their presence. The BJP and the Congress occupy the two poles in the bipolar polity which has come about in the state.



The verdict of the 2002 Assembly polls bears out this trend. While the BJP polled 49.85% of the votes polled, which translated into 127 seats for the party, the Congress had to rest content with 39.28% of the total votes cast, which gave it a tally of 51 seats in the 182-member Assembly.



It is, however, the category of “others” which proves the point that there is practically no room for other political players in the state. Among the other outfits, only the JD(U) could open its account. It managed to win two seats (Jhagadiya and Dediapada), both falling in the Bharuch Lok Sabha constituen¬cy in south Gujarat. The two tribal-dominated seats have, in fact, become some sort of a JD(U) stronghold, and have kept the two principal players at bay since 1998.



The independents, too, emerged victorious in just two seats - Chotila and Deodar, even though there were as many as 344 of them in the fray.



The other political parties drew a blank. These included the NCP, Samajwadi party, BSP and the two main Left parties.





BJP trying to patch up with Keshubhai Patel



The BJP, facing a rebellion from several of its senior leaders and legislators in Gujarat, is trying to patch up with former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel. BJP general secretary Arun Jaitley, in-charge of the party’s election campaign in the state, had discussions with Patel during his two-day visit to the state last week. BJP rebels claiming the blessings and leader¬ship of Keshubhai Patel are up in arms against Chief Minister Narendra Modi.



BJP sources in New Delhi said that the leadership is working overtime to keep Keshubhai Patel in good humour as he belongs to the powerful Patel community of the state. A pointer in the wind is the BJP’s decision to field Keshubhai’s son, Bharat Patel, in the coming Assembly elections. Earlier, the former Chief Min¬ister had said that his son would be contesting as an independent candidate, but that plan now appears to have been shelved.



In a significant development, Keshubhai Patel has ruled out the possibility of joining hands with the Congress either direct¬ly or indirectly. He said there was no way he could have joined a party he had opposed all his life.



There are reports that Keshubhai Patel has asked the BJP’s central leadership to include him in the consultation process while finalising the list of candidates for the coming Assembly elections. The BJP is likely to keep another former senior leader Kashiram Rana in good humour by consulting him while finalising the list of candidates for the Assembly segments fall¬ing within the Surat Lok Sabha constituency which he has been representing since 1989.



In another deft move, BJP’s central leadership has decided against expelling or taking other disciplinary action against party MPs from Gujarat who have openly opposed its decision to fight the Assembly elections under Narendra Modi’s leadership.



A senior leader, just back from Gujarat, said in New Delhi on Wednesday, Oct. 17 that the party would not do what the rebels wanted it to do. If expelled, the MPs would retain their seats as the anti-defection law would not apply.



At least two MPs - Vallabhai Kathiria and Somabhai Patel - have gone to the extent of asking the people to defeat the BJP led by Modi. Former Chief Ministers Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta are also with the dissidents, but Patel has made it clear - unlike the others - that he is not ready to part with the BJP.



BJP president Rajnath Singh has already indicated that the central leadership, which has given Modi a free hand in the election, will take no action against the rebels unless the State unit makes a specific recommendation. There are indications that the party will try to keep Patel happy, allowing him to select his nominees for a few seats.





Congress moving cautiously on BJP rebels



Following opposition from a section of the party in Gujarat to the move to tie up with BJP rebels, the Congress has decided to move cautiously on the issue. But a meeting of the party high command in New Delhi last week said that there will be no going back on the strategic decision to go all out against the Narendra Modi led BJP by entering into a tactical tie up with the BJP rebels in the coming Assembly elections.



The party high command also received a sort of helping hand on this front when the controversial BJP rebel leader Gordhan Zadaphia made it clear to the AICC that he was not seeking admis¬sion in the Congress and was willing for anti-Modi tactical cooperation from outside through the rebel outfit named after Sardar Patel.



A section of the Congress and some social activists had opposed the admission of Zadaphia, citing his alleged role in the post-Godhra riots.



At a meeting in New Delhi, AICC leaders Ahmed Patel and B.K. Hari Prasad told the PCC leadership to hold discussions with all prominent state party leaders till Oct. 26 to reassure them that the admission of some BJP rebels in the party and a larger tactical understanding with the BJP rebel outfit will not affect the electoral ambitions of the deserving local Congress leaders.



The meeting also decided to give the 11 BJP MLAs who have rebelled against their party a choice of recontesting from the seats they represented in the outgoing Assembly or a pick of another half a dozen ‘tough’ seats where their candidature could boost the Congress prospects.





New DGP appointed by Election Commission



The Election Commission has appointed KR Kaushik Director-General of Police in poll-bound Gujarat after shunting out PC Pande, whose credentials have been suspect after the 2002 riots.



The poll panel had asked for the transfer of DGP Pande, who was the Ahmedabad Commissioner in 2002, and five other police officials. All are believed to be loyalists of Chief Minister Narendra Modi.



The poll panel had asked for a list of probables to succeed Pande by Tuesday evening, but the Gujarat government had begun toying with the idea of challenging the poll panel’s move in court. It, however, had a rethink and sent the list of DGP probables on Wednesday night.



The climbdown came apparently after the realisation that going to court for this could be seen as a sign of weakness.



Moreover, the BJP could have been left red-faced if the court backed the Election Commission’s decision. Kaushik is the seniormost IPS officer in the state and is not seen as a BJP man.