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To talk or not to talk - India's dilemma |
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Although publicly both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his new External Affairs Minister, S.M. Krishna, have reiterated the Indian stand that there is no question of resumption of the Indo-Pak dialogue process unless Pakistan reins in terrorists, dismantles the terror infrastructure and puts on trial the perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attacks, there is debate in official circles to find some alternative. One of the options being considered is restarting a diluted version of dialogue with Pakistan on a highly scaled down framework, i.e. talks for the sake of talks without substance. This would be unlike the suspended composite dialogue when as many eight contentious issues, including Kashmir, were identified and working groups set up to find a common ground. There is a view that such an approach will reduce US pressure on resumption of talks while keeping up pressure on Pakistan to honour its commitments to India on terror originating from its soil. And not holding talks will give Pakistan a handle to pressure India through the US and accuse it of not interested in peace and stability in the region.
It is likely that a new diluted dialogue framework will be crafted before US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives in New Delhi. It is not unlikely that the contours of the such a dialogue framework were discussed with the visiting State Department official, William Burns, to New Delhi. He raised the issue of restarting the talks in his meetings with Foreign Secretary Shiv Shanker Menon and others.
Meanwhile, Indian and Pakistani leaders will have at least two opportunities for informal, if not structured talks when they meet in third countries in the coming days. It is likely that the tenor of these talks will influence India to take a decision on the nature and extent of the resumed talks. While Dr. Singh and Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari will be in Yekateringburg, Russia to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit as Observer, S.M. Krishna and his Pakistani counterpart, Shah Mahmood Qureshi will be attending the Af-Pak meet being hosted by Italy in the north-eastern port city of Trieste on the sidelines of the G-8 summit later this month. Informal contacts at these meetings will be watched with interest in India, Pakistan and the US.
So far, four rounds of the composite dialogue have been held between India and Pakistan. And twice in the past the dialogue process has been disrupted by attacks by Pak-based terrorists – first on the Indian Parliament in 2001 and again by the July 2006 train blasts in Mumbai which also affected bilateral relations.
The composite dialogue has made incremental progress on the people-to-people front. A number of important steps, including transport connectivity and trade across the line of Control, increase in frequency of Delhi-Lahore bus service, agreement on reducing the risk from accidents relating to nuclear weapons have been taken.. On Sir Creek after a joint survey, the two countries were close to reaching an agreement. Even on Kashmir, both former President Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have said they were close to an agreement; this was, however, disrupted by the people’s agitation in Pakistan for the restoration of the Supreme Court Chief Justice, Iftikhar Chaudhury after the President sacked him which eventually led to Musharraf’s downfall. However, on other contentious issues like Siachen, Wullar’Tulbul and terrorism there has been little progress.
In the present environment India and Pakistan, therefore, can take up the broken threads and commence from where they left the last time. But little can be expected. Pakistan for one has been emboldened by the US dependence on its Army to wipe out the Taliban militants from its soil. The US is in the process of tripling its aid to Pakistan indicating its dependence on Pakistan. India, on its part does not feel encouraged by this apparent US overture in favour of Pakistan as this brings back past memories of the US tilt. India is also not sure that Pakistan can be sincere in reaching honourable settlement on any contentious issue. Pakistan is telling the US that it can fight the Taliban with full force and its military would be more focused to eliminate the Jihadis only if was free from its security worries on the border with India. In fact Pakistan has shifted some brigades from the Indian border but not from the Line of Control. India is apprehensive of this approach as it would weaken its defences since there is no suggestion that terrorist militias are going to be “demilitarized” as well. Pakistan’s ambivalence on terrorism has been the real issue especially after the Mumbai attack. Its lack of seriousness in tackling the Jihadis (as opposed to Taliban) was exposed by the release of JuD supremo Hafiz Saeed in spite of unimpeachable evidence of his masterminding the Mumbai terror attacks.
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