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Third alternative, BSP presence may boost Congress

	December 22, 2008

The Left Parties, especially the chief of its main component, CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat have launched

an all out drive to secure the support of regional parties for a third alternative which they want to be in place in the next

couple of months, well before next year’s Lok Sabha elections. The game plan of Karat and his fellow travellers became

clear at the party rally in Guwahati on Dec. 14 and the subsequent news conference the following day where the CPI(M)

appealed to regional parties, which have aligned either with the Congress or the BJP, to join the third force of non-Congress,

non-BJP secular parties.





Karat was hopeful that a third alternative comprising the Left parties and regional outfits will take shape within the

next two months, ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. But on the ground, there does not appear to be anything to show that the

third alternative will be a strong and viable force. Till now, the Left parties have been able to enter into ambiguous deals

with only two major regional outfits, Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh and Jayalalithaa’s All

India Anna DMK in Tamil Nadu. Both these parties and their leaders are slippery customers and they would not think twice

about deserting the third alternative to board the BJP’s ship if the occasion arises and they find that it would bring them

nearer to power in their respective states.





The Left parties have also been trying to woo Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party which is the dominant regional

party in Uttar Pradesh and has a sizeable presence in several other states. But despite aligning with the BSP during the

voting on the trust motion in the Lok Sabha in July this year, the Left parties are nowhere reaching a firm alliance with

Mayawati’s party for the Lok Sabha elections. Mayawati has already made it clear that her party would be contesting all 80

Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and would not spare any seat for the Left parties or Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal. It is

clear that if ultimately Mayawati is roped into the third alternative, the Left parties would have to pay a heavy price for that.

Even if a third alternative comes up, the Congress, it appears, need not worry about the prospect. An analysis of the

Assembly elections held in November-December, especially the one for the National Capital Territory Delhi Assembly

shows that the presence of BSP candidates actually helped the Congress to defeat the BJP. The Congress won 40.3 per cent

of the popular vote, a drop of 7.8 per cent drop from 2003. This would have been a big blow if the contest had been primarily

bipolar as the voters who had deserted the Congress, would have favoured the BJP. But the BJP’s vote share went up by just

a little over one per cent while the bulk of the voters who had moved away from the Congress, went over to the BSP, raising

its vote share from 5.8 to 14 per cent.





Of course, there are certain states in the country where the BJP is not posing the main challenge to the Congress. In

these states, the fight is between the Congress on the one hand and the Left parties and/or the dominant regional outfit on the

other. In some respects, the Left parties though having national presence are primarily dominant regional players in three

states - West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. But in other states, the fight is mainly between the Congress and BJP. If the third

alternative puts up stronger fight in such states, the Congress will be the gainer, as the opposition space will be shared

between the BJP and the third alternative.





As the results of the recently held Assembly elections have shown, the BSP will be a spoiler for the Congress only

if the party becomes a dominant player in a state. Otherwise, it may divide the opposition space and work to the advantage

of the Congress. Prakash Karat, it is possible, may be able to jumble together a third alternative before the Lok Sabha

elections, but it is not likely to achieve its basic objective - ousting the Congress from power. Rather, it may help the

Congress to beat the challenge from the BJP.