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The worm turns : Grand Old Party fights back |
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The Congress has decided to contest most of the Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, ending the prospect of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) putting up a united fight against a resurgent Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh and the Janata Dal United-BJP alliance in Bihar. On the face of it, the emerging scenario will help the forces which do not want the UPA to retain power at the Centre after the coming elections. But the situation may not necessarily work to the disadvantage of the Grand Old Party, the Congress, which is perhaps the only truly national party in the country. In any case, the party, sidelined as it has been in these two states in northern India by the BJP and regional outfits, has nothing much to lose. In the outgoing Lok Sabha, the Congress had a total of 12 seats from these two states, nine from Uttar Pradesh and three from Bihar.
By contesting a large number of seats in two of the most politically crucial states in the north, the Congress would be able to rebuild and perhaps regain the ground it has lost to other parties in the past decades, even if the party is not able to add much to its kitty in terms of seats in the lower house of Parliament.
The Congress decision to take head on allies like Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party in Bihar and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, apart from opponents like Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party and the Janata Dal United - BJP combine, comes after what the party considers betrayal and humiliation by the Lalu-Paswan duo, who were earlier considered to be among the most ‘loyal’ allies of the Congress. Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan carved up the 40 Lok Sabha seats from Bihar among themselves, leaving only three for the Congress, which senior leader Sushil Kumar Shinde admitted is a big humiliation for the party, which is heading the coalition arrangement at the Centre. In Uttar Pradesh also, the situation was no better with the Samajwadi Party announcing the names of its candidates for 75 of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats, pushing the Congress into a corner.
It now appears that the Congress has decided to face the challenge head on and field as many candidates in UP and Bihar as possible. The party hopes that this will enable it to move out of the shadow of its regional allies, and ultimately create a situation where it comes back into the reckoning in the political stakes. The decision to admit influential rebels from Lalu Prasad Yadav’s camp - his controversial brother-in-law Sadhu Yadav and Ramai Ram - appears to be part of the new Congress strategy, said to have been finalised by party president Sonia Gandhi and her son and party general secretary Rahul Gandhi. In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress is reported to have rejected overtures from Mulayam Singh’s party for reopening the question of the two parties having an alliance . This is indicated in the decision to put up candidates in more then 60 of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
Taken aback by the Congress response - the Yadav chieftains and Paswan apparently thought that the worm will never turn - there are reports that they have started looking for options other than the Congress as ally at the national level after the elections. Lalu Yadav and Paswan are said to be in talks with Mulayam Singh Yadav to work out their strategy in the light of the Congress decision to cut into their vote banks in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
In the uncertain political scenario which is emerging, it is likely to be a free for all in both the period before and after the Lok Sabha elections. The key consideration is likely to be how to reach the magic figure of 272 in the 543 member Lok Sabha, not ideology. The third front , which has been floated at the behest of the Left parties, claims to be a secular combine, but the fact cannot be ignored that many of its constituents had allied with or supported BJP led governments at the Centre and in various states in the past. Even though the Congress has worked out a seat-sharing deal with the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra, NCP chief Sharad Pawar has thrown his hat in the ring for the Prime Minister’s position, though the Congress has been saying that there is no vacancy for the PM’s post and that Dr. Manmohan Singh will be the Prime Minister if the UPA retains power after the elections. With the virtual breakdown of the UPA arrangement in crucial states, Sharad Pawar may play a significant role in creating a situation where a leader from a party other than the Congress heads the next coalition at the Centre.
By going it alone in crucial states, the Congress may have taken a step towards rebuilding the party but this does not appear to be adequate to catch the imagination of the voting public. The party will have to come up with a vision of how it seeks to tackle the challenges facing the nation, internally and externally. There is no sign of a new vision emerging so far.
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