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Surveys predict UPA on the upswing, but no mid-term polls

	January 29, 2007

At long last, there is something to cheer about for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government at the Centre. Media surveys have projected a remarkably high popular rating for the UPA when it is half-way through its five-year tenure.



A survey conducted by Hindustan Times and CNN-IBN has said that the UPA on its own, without taking into account its outside supporters like the Left parties, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, may win about 300 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) if elections were held now.



Though the Congress, the leading light of the UPA, is naturally happy at the survey findings, it has ruled out holding mid-term polls to take advantage of the current mood of the voting public. But at the same time, the party appears set to assert itself more strongly within the UPA and vis-a-vis the parties supporting it from outside.



Party general secretary Janaradhan Dwivedi, reacting to the survey findings, said coalition is not a permanent arrangement and it is natural for the Congress to think of coming to power at the Centre on its own. But at the same time, he said that the UPA coalition would last its full term of five years as “this coalition was formed to run for five years.”



Dwivedi was answering queries by mediapersons on whether the party would hold a brainstorming session to assess its prospects, particularly since the survey has shown a gain for the UPA as a whole. “Today we are running a coalition. We are committed to it. The future will decide for itself what course we will take,” he said.



Congress president Sonia Gandhi has been repeatedly exhorting Members of Parliament belonging to the party, other party leaders and workers to nurture the organization, not only in opposition-ruled states, but also in states that are ruled by its coalition partners. For example, in Maharashtra, the Congress is fighting it out with its coalition partner, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to capture the political space that the party feels is being vacated by a divided Shiv Sena and the BJP.



Significantly, another party general secretary and former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijay Singh had some time in the past, gone on record saying that the Congress should contest all the seats in the Lok Sabha Elections to be held in 2009. He had said, “Until we fight all the seats, how will we keep our cadres going ?”







UPA placed better than in 2004



Sonia more popular than PM and Vajpayee



The latest nation-wide survey undertaken by The Hindustan Times-CNN-IBN, based on interviews with 15,337 respondents in 970 villages and urban locations spread across 19 states conducted in mid-January has good news for the ruling UPA. After completing more than half of its tenure, the UPA is placed better than it was in 2004.



The survey says that if Lok Sabha elections had been held in the second week of January, the ruling coalition would have managed to shed its dependence on the Left and secured a clear majority with around 300 seats, up from the 222 it won in 2004. The NDA would have won 115 seats, down from the 189 it won in 2004.



The State of the Nation Survey carried out by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) has more cheerful news for the Congress. Sonia Gandhi continues to be the most popular leader of the country as none of the BJP leaders is able to fill the space vacated by A.B. Vajpayee. People want to see Sonia as the PM, but are satisfied with Manmohan Singh’s performance and do not want someone else to replace him. Even BJP voters agree that the BJP has grown weaker since 2004.



Yet there is something that should worry the ruling coalition. The popularity surge for the UPA appears to have hit a plateau. The previous two rounds of this six-monthly barometer had shown an upward trend for the Congress and its allies. The stable picture at the national level hides many upheavals at the state level. The logic of incumbency has started working against the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi, but not in Punjab and Uttrakhand that go to the polls next month. The UPA is sitting pretty in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra where it has major allies.



The BJP’s incumbency record is much worse. It is going downhill in all the states that it rules. The saving grace for the NDA is that the governments led by the BJP’s partners are doing well. Naveen Patnaik and Nitish Kumar occupy the first and the second spot in the popularity rating of all Chief Ministers and even H.D. Kumaraswamy has picked up after a disastrous start.







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Seat projection



Year 2006 (Jan) 2006 (Aug) 2007 (Jan)



UPA 274 306 300

NDA 150 120 115



Left Front 53 60 60



Others 66 57 68



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Congress claims to be true inheritor of Mahatma’s legacy



In the centenary year of the Satyagraha Movement launched by Mahatma Gandhi to win freedom for the country, the Congress is trying to project itself as the true inheritor of the Mahatma’s legacy. An impressive galaxy of world leaders, Gandhian thinkers and Nobel laureates will be attending a two-day conference in New Delhi from today, Jan. 29 to mark the centenary.



The conference titled “Peace, non-violence and empowerment: Gandhian philosophy in 21st century”, is a Sonia show all the way. She will inaugurate the conclave while Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will address the concluding session.



Although the entire party machinery has been working hard at organising this star-studded show, Sonia Gandhi is taking no chances. She went around the venue on Jan. 27 to inspect the arrangements after the Prime Minister inaugurated a photo exhibition depicting Mahatma Gandhi’s relentless fight for social justice and truth.



The exhibition is a precursor to the upcoming deliberations where participants will not just recall the charisma of the apostle of peace but also acknowledge his historical contribution and emphasise the continuing relevance of Gandhian values.



The impressive line-up of participants includes Prime Ministers or senior ministers from several countries, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Spain, Italy, Sweden and South Africa. Lech Walesa of Poland, Ahmed Kathrada of South Africa, Navinchandra Ramgoolam of Mauritius and Lyonpo Khandu Wangchuk of Bhutan are among those who have confirmed their participation. Others who will take part include Maldivian President Abdul Gayoom, Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayaka and senior leaders from Pakistan like chief of Awami National Party Asfandyar Khan and Muttahida Quami Movement leader Farooq Sattar. Nobel laureates Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Mohamad Yunus are among the other noted personalities who will debate the relevance of Gandhi in the 21st century while Gandhi’s family will be represented by his grand daughter Ela Gandhi.



The themes identified for discussion include conflict resolution, peace building, disarmament, poverty alleviation, social development and empowerment - all issues which are of vital concern not just for India but the world at large. The subjects also reflect priority items on the Congress party’s national and international agenda. The event will conclude with the adoption of a historic ‘Satyagraha centenary declaration’.