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Stormy Winter Session ahead : Preliminary battle for Assembly elections

	November 20, 2006

All major political parties are getting ready to start their battle for next year’s Assembly elections during the Winter session of Parliament beginning in New Delhi on Wednesday, Nov. 22. The Opposition is likely to raise a host of prickly issues including internal security, the Sachar panel report on the status of Muslims, prices and inflation, especially the demand for reduction in the prices of petroleum products.



Elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab and Manipur, due some time in February or March next year, are yet to be notified by the Election Commission. But political parties have already started preparing for the polls. The recent local bodies elections in Uttar Pradesh, seen by some observers as the dress rehearsal for the Assembly elections, set the stage for a bitter confrontation among the major political parties in the state. The BJP as well as the Congress accused the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led ruling Samajwadi Party of rigging the elections, though the poll results had several shocks for the ruling coalition. The Congress made some gains in the civic elections, but a cause for worry for the party was that its main rival at the national level, the BJP, made bigger gains. The BJP, on its part, is hoping that the turn-around in its performance, will be the precursor for its resurgence not only in Uttar Pradesh, but also at the national level.



The Samajwadi Party has been talking of the Congress trying to topple its government in Uttar Pradesh and has demanded the removal of state Governor T.V. Rajeshwar whom it accuses of working at the behest of the Congress.





BJP spells out its priorities



The BJP spelt out its priorities for the Winter session at a breakfast meeting with Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee on Saturday, Nov. 18. Incidentally, the meeting also signified that Chatterjee had decided to continue with the practice he initiated upon assuming the office of the Speaker, that of breaking bread with all political parties and groups in the run up to every Parliament session. Earlier reports had said that he was considering abandoning the practice in view of the political parties going back on their commitment and assurances for orderly discussions in the House on various contentious issues.



At the breakfast meeting with the Speaker, leader of the Opposition L.K. Advani made it clear that internal security issues would be the top priority for his party.



The first day would be “devoted” to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s demand that no leniency be shown to Mohammad Afzal, sentenced to death in the Parliament attack case.



BJP leaders do not rule out the party pressing this issue to the point of its not allowing Parliament to function. It will simultaneously organise a demonstration outside Parliament demanding that Afzal’s clemency appeal be rejected.



It seems the BJP is planning an adjournment motion on internal security issues, although it has not made a clear statement.



The Speaker let the Opposition leaders know that subject to procedural rules and time, he would accommodate the issues they raised.



The issues the BJP prioritised earlier at a meeting at the house of former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee included terrorism, internal security, concern at reservation for Muslims, prices and inflation and farmers’ problems including suicides.



The controversy over sealing of shops in residential areas of Delhi also figured in the discussion. While the BJP has been blaming the Congress Governments in Delhi and at the Centre for the problems in the capital, the party leadership has also been unhappy with the totally ‘legalistic’ view taken by the judiciary.



Apart from a dinner meeting with Congress leaders on Sunday, Nov. 19, the Speaker would be having a breakfast meeting with leaders of the Left parties and those supporting the UPA, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party today, Nov. 20.





Government hopeful of weathering the storm



Despite indications that the Opposition would try to corner the Government on contentious issues, the Manmohan Singh Government appears confident of shaking off any challenge which may be thrown its way. Parliamentary Affairs Minister P.R. Dasmunshi said on Thursday, Nov. 16, that the Opposition has every right to bring an adjournment motion or any other motion, and the Government has the capacity to counter it.





Women’s Reservation Bill : RJD isolation



There are indications that almost all political parties, except Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, have decided to support the Women’s Reservation Bill, which the Government wants to introduce in the Winter session. One view in the Congress is to introduce the Bill irrespective of what the RJD chief feels. The Mahila Congress is organising a march to Parliament on the first day of the Winter Session demanding the introduction of the Bill.



Observers say what makes Lalu Prasad Yadav’s position awkward in the United Progressive Alliance is his defiance of Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s appeal to all UPA constituents for supporting the Women’s Reservation Bill. Even parties with a backward caste base such as the DMK and PMK have come around. Lalu Prasad Yadav has not spoken openly on the issue, but RJD sources say that he is opposed to the Bill. An RJD MP said, “We have not revised our position that women’s reservation is not acceptable without caste-based quotas with in it.”





Sachar Panel report and reservation for Backward Muslims



Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav’s views on Muslim politics do not necessarily converge with those of the Congress. The RJD chief has maintained a studied silence on the findings of the Sachar panel, which are expected to be tabled in Parliament along with an Action Taken Report (ATR). Observers say that Lalu Prasad Yadav is worried at the likely demand that the 27 per cent quota for other backward classes (OBCs) should have a separate quota for OBC Muslims. In a subtle signal, Lalu Prasad Yadav skipped the Prime Minister’s Iftar party and organised one of his own the same day in Patna.





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Raise Muslim share : Sachar Committee



The high level committee headed by Justice Rajinder Sachar, that looked into the social, economic and educational status of the Muslim community in India, is learnt to have recommended equitable distribution of available jobs in the formal sector for Muslims. The Committee submitted its report to the Prime Minister on Nov. 17



Observers say that the committee’s report makes a strong case for boosting the Muslim community’s share in jobs which may give rise to the demand for community’s quota leading to a full scale political confrontation. Stopping short of making a specific recommendation for a community quota, the Committee calls for formulation of appropriate programmes to address the economic and educational backwardness of the community. Important recommendations of the committee include making disbursal of bank credit more transparent, ensuring quality education to Muslim children upto the age of 14 while continuing with the modernisation of madarsas as an interim step, greater role for civil society in ending ‘ghettoisation’ of the community in certain parts of the country and special focus on traditional employment areas of the community.



The Committee report said that the Muslim community was lagging behind other religious groups in development indicators. The report said the community was relatively poor, more illiterate, has lower access in education, lower representation in public and private sector jobs and lower availability of bank credit for self-employment.



Replying to queries from reporters after submitting the report on whether the committee has recommended reservation for Muslims, Justice Sachar said this was for the Government to decide.



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Reactions, BJP isolated



A statement issued from the Prime Minister’s office said that Dr. Manmohan Singh emphasised that one cannot wish away differences merely by refusing to measure them. Surveys of disadvantaged section are necessary to understand the extent of deprivation and evolve focussed intervention to ensure that development is equitable and inclusive.



The Prime Minister said India was a unique nation since it has been for centuries the home of every religious persuasion. India’s social fabric has been woven together by coexistence of all religions. He said the report would be tabled in parliament for discussion and debate to enable building of a national consensus on how to improve the social, educational and economic status of the community.



The reactions to the Sachar panel saw the virtual isolation of the BJP in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as the only party to oppose reservation for Muslims. Its former and current allies like the Janata Dal (United) and the Lok Janashakti Party charted out their individual courses.



The Janata Dal (U), while opposing reservation on religious grounds, said Dalit Muslims and Christians should be clubbed with the Scheduled Castes so that they can avail themselves of the quota benefits being given to SCs.



The JDU demand is at variance with that of LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan, who a few days ago, advocated a quota for Muslims by including them in the lit of other backward classes.



The BJP has dubbed the UPA chorus for Muslim reservation “competitive communalism.” The party perceives this as a golden opportunity to revive its lost Hindu vote-bank in the Hindi heartland, especially in Uttar Pradesh. Party president Rajnath Singh described recent statements by UPA leaders as an attempt to “Balkanise” India. Party spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad demanded an explanation from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.



“Religion-based reservation is a dangerous and unconstitutional demand, which has far-reaching implications for the country. The BJP rejects this demand and any attempt to divide the country on communal basis. The party would oppose any compromise on the existing benefits being given to SC/STs and other backward classes in the country,” Prasad said.



“We also want to know from the Prime Minister where he stands on this issue,” he added.



While keeping its cards close to the chest, the Congress is preparing to use the findings of the Sachar Committee to craft a political initiative which may include modifying quotas, special recruitment drives for Muslims in government jobs and greater spends for schemes aimed at education for the minorities.



Voices in the Congress and the government are chary about using the word “quota” just yet. But they point out that the Sachar panel has highlighted the need to enhance representation of Muslims in all arms of the government and even the judiciary.



The conclusion seems to be that the scene could now be set for initiatives aimed at convincing Muslims that the Congress is the party of choice for them.



Union Minister for Minority Affairs A.R. Antulay has called for the inclusion of Dalit Muslims and Christians in the reserved category of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. He said he agreed with the Prime Minister that the minorities should get a “fair” share in jobs and other avenues in the country. Antulay said he was “for including Dalit Muslims and Christians in the reserved SC/ST category. By just changing their faith, their status, social and economic backwardness and the burden of being downtrodden for centuries does not change overnight.”



Water Resources Minister Saifuddin Soz joined the debate arguing for Muslim reservation with the rider that it should be for those “minus the creamy layer in the community.” He said this was his “personal opinion” and he was yet to check if his party (Congress) was with him on this.