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STATE-WISE RESUME

	April 19, 2004

Uttar Pradesh

With 80 seats, a crucial state that could well shape the future government at the Centre. UP pitch-forked BJP to the No. 1 slot nationally and is still critical for the party. On paper a four-cornered contest, but in many seats it’ll effectively be triangular among SP, BJP and BSP. The Congress could be squeezed out in most seats barring where the Gandhis or notables like Satish Sharma and Noor Bano are fighting. For SP, a higher tally would allow Mulayam Singh Yadav to play for higher stakes at the Centre. BJP and Congress may be hard pressed to match their last score, though with Kalyan Singh back BJP claims its tally can even improve. BSP is trying to counter sharp upper and middle caste animus by wooing Muslims. Advantage SP.



Maharashtra

Accounts for second largest chunk of seats: 48. In ’99, the rift between Congress and NCP helped Shiv Sena-BJP bag 28 seats, paving the way to New Delhi. Now, Congress and NCP are together and seem favourites. The Sena-BJP combine is hoping to break new ground among Dalits and sections of the Marathas. The incumbency burden on Cong-NCP is something the saffron strategists hope to capitalize on. Congress-NCP has the edge.



Andhra Pradesh

The TDP-BJP combine virtually swept the state last time, leaving only five seats for the Congress. The Congress alliance with the TRS - a major force in Telengana - leaves it well placed in 14 of the 42 seats. It is also trying to milk the grievances against the Naidu government. Naidu advanced state polls to coincide with Lok Sabha polls. Helping him are the Vajpayee factor, poll management skills and reforms. The latter can, however, cut both ways. A really close race.



West Bengal

Unlikely to be different from every election since ’77. CPM-led Left Front is a clear favourite. 1999 saw Mamata Banerjee posing a stiff challenge in many of the 42 seats. Her Trinamool has since weakened and could struggle to hold on to seats outside Kolkata. Congress seems to have recovered a bit but this might help CPM by splitting the anti-Left votes. Left combine is definitely ahead.



Bihar

NDA did well last time. Laloo Yadav’s RJD got only 6 of the 40 seats. That explains Laloo’s rare generosity in giving 8 seats to Ramvilas Paswan to forge a coalition of Yadavs, Muslims and Dusadhs (dalit sub-caste). NDA hopes RJD’s non-performance will yield dividends across caste lines. NDA also has a sizable section of non-Yadav middle castes to add to its core upper caste support. NDA has reasons for optimism.



Tamil Nadu

The DMK-Congress alliance is all set to sweep Tamil Nadu with the poll forecast giving it a tally of 30 Lok Sabha seats. The AIADMK-BJP alliance is poised to win only 9 parliamentary seats with the respondents registering anger with the AIADMK’s decision to ally with the BJP for these elections. Over 69 per cent of the respondents said that this decision was the major reason for shifting to the Congress party, a costly mistake for the ruling party in the state.

Of the respondents in The Asian Age/Deccan Chronicle-ACNielsen poll, 53.6 per cent said they would vote for the Congress-DMK alliance as against 35.9 per cent who supported the BJP-AIADMK combine in Tamil Nadu. The Congress has emerged as a major party in Tamil Nadu, which has earned the distinction of being the only state polled so far to register a preference for Congress president Sonia Gandhi over Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. Forty-nine per cent of the respondents said she was most capable of becoming the Prime Minister of India as against the 37 per cent who supported Vajpayee. The Congress is poised to get good support from the voters.

Respondents wanted Sonia Gandhi to continue as Congress president even if it lost the general elections. Seventy-two per cent said she should continue against only 26 per cent who were of the view that she should resign in case of defeat. Her foreign origin is also not a factor in Tamil Nadu with 72 per cent of the respondents making it clear that this issue would not affect their voting intention. This time Congress has tied up with the DMK-led combination, including strong state outfits like the PMK and MDMK. This makes for a compelling caste combination.



Madhya Pradesh

Like the assembly poll it had won, the BJP has a clear edge. The momentum from its landslide win in the assembly polls in December hasn’t yet been lost. The Congress, in comparison, appears to be in disarray with its best bet, Digvijay Singh, virtually out of action.



Karnataka

The Congress and BJP are engaged in a tough contest. The BJP has been gaining at the expense of the fast-withering Janata Dals. The BJP appeared to be stagnating here after starting with a flourish in the ’90s. It has now carved out support among OBCs and Lingayats and is threatening, for the first time, Congress’s sole position in the Lok Sabha elections. In the simultaneous assembly poll, it is again a close race between the Congress and BJP.



Gujarat

Narendra Modi still rules the roost. The BJP is looking up to get a good share of the seats from the State, though Congress could put up a good show in the Saurashtra region. BJP in commanding position.



Rajasthan

Main fight is between the BJP and Congress. It’s a state that BJP won convincingly in the December ’03 assembly election. The Vasundhara Raje government is still very young and, therefore, cushioned against major anti-incumbency. BJP better placed.



Orissa

A near total rout for the Congress in ’99. Navin Patnaik’s decision to advance state polls to coincide with Lok Sabha elections suggests he is confident of overcoming the anti-incumbency factor and desertions from the BJD’s ranks. The Congress could improve its tally. NDA is in the front.



Kerala

All 20 seats will see straight contests between the Congress-led UDF and CPM-led LDF. CPM hopes to increase its tally, though the Congress has finally put a lid on its factional fights. Support for the BJP is considered to be on the rise, but far short of the point where it can win seats.



Jharkhand

BJP swept the state in ’99. It can be an entirely different story this time. The party faces a formidable challenge from the Congress-JMM-RJD alliance. The Congress’ decision to tie up with the JMM, which has strong pockets of influence, can give it an edge in at least half of the 12 seats where BJP earlier seemed to be sitting pretty. Congress-JMM leading.



Punjab

A rout for Akali Dal-BJP in ’99. They hope to turn the tables on the Congress, by cashing in on resentment against the Amarinder Singh government for its ‘politics of vendetta’. Advantage NDA.



Chhattisgarh

The first time Lok Sabha elections are being held after the state was carved out of MP. BJP hopes to repeat the sweep of ’99 after its win in the December 2003 assembly polls. It will also hope to consolidate its recent hold on tribal seats. BJP well ahead.



Haryana

The collapse of BJP’s tie-up with O.P. Chautala’s INLD has made the Congress favourite in the state where it drew a blank in ’99. Chautala is seen to be hugely unpopular; that’s why BJP called it quits. But, the party can’t wish away its association with Chautala. Congress can surge ahead.



Delhi

A clean sweep for BJP in 1999. Assembly polls might suggest a near total reversal, but that might be too optimistic for Congress, with the capital likely to show the effects of the Vajpayee factor. The Congress decision to field nominees with alleged role in the anti-Sikh riots of 1984 could give the BJP an edge.



Jammu and Kashmir

Split between National Conference and BJP last time. The Congress-PDP alliance could change things. NC-PDP contest in the Valley, Congress-BJP-NC fight in Jammu region. Delicately poised.



North East

A region traditionally dominated by Congress, but one in which the party now faces an uphill task. With Arunachal CM Gegong Apang joining BJP, regional parties in Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Manipur and Sikkim forging ties with the NDA and the CPI(M) sitting pretty in Tripura, the Congress’s hopes for the region rest on Assam. The state gave the Congress 10 of its 14 seats in the north-east in 1999. But anti-incumbency could extract a cost this time. (For state-wise details, please see North East section)