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State of the Nation : UPA’s 100 days |
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The nation celebrated its 58th Independence Day on August 15. This is the time for introspection not only for the country, but also for the Government of the day. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has completed 100 days in office, but the United Progressive Alliance government is yet to present a picture of stability and being in control. While inflation has shot up in the wake of a poor monsoon, there are a number of problematic states and Chief Ministers working in different directions, without taking the Congress high command into confidence. Observers say keeping the Left parties in good humour is the primary task of the Prime Minister, who has to ensure that the economic reforms do not get derailed and at the same time, benefit the common man. The earlier Vajpayee regime floundered on its own propaganda of “India Shining” with a distinct urban bias. The Congress campaign of caring for the common man struck a responsive chord among voters whose aspirations are now high.
In this context, 100 days in power by the UPA Government are considered significant by political analysts. Although insufficient to assess the functioning of the Government, certain trends are visible. The United Progressive Alliance Government with two power centers - one headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the other by UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi, should be considered reasonably stable. Despite mixed signals from the Left parties, which are trying to ensure that the principles of the Common Minimum Programme are adhered to, while not ready to sacrifice their own principles, they may not go to the extent of destabilizing the government. Differences are bound to persist but not to the extent of a breakdown or parting of ways.
The most significant and obvious observation is the status of the Prime Minister himself. Manmohan Singh finds himself more or less ignored coalition party leaders. When it comes to advice on political matters, it is Sonia Gandhi that the Congress leaders turn to. It is quite clear that seasoned politicians in the government with their own ambitions are not totally reconciled to the elevation of Manmohan Singh as the chosen one by Sonia Gandhi. It is exactly due to his lack of ambition that he has been preferred by Sonia as he could never emerge as a rival to challenge her authority. Adopting a low-profile, Manmohan Singh has left major political decisions to Sonia and is concentrating more on the reforms process and making the bureaucracy more accountable.
But no Prime Minister can function without political clout or without addressing political issues. The Congress provoked the BJP by removing some Governors in the states for allegedly being sympathetic to the pro-Hindu Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) ideology. Clearly, the Prime Minister was uncomfortable. A stickler for public morality, Manmohan Singh found it hard to justify the presence of some chargesheeted ministers in his ministry. He did so out of coalition compulsions, but did not hide his disapproval by suggesting that there should be a law to prevent politicians with criminal background from contesting the elections. That would effectively prevent their joining the government.
On the political front, the deterioration of unrest in Manipur over the demand for the scrapping of the special powers given to security forces to tackle insurgency in the state and the virtual breakdown of the dialogue process with the Hurriyat Conference in Jammu and Kashmir are disturbing signals. This is the sign of a dangerous drift which needs immediate handling before things go out of hand.
The sharp rise in inflation as a result of poor monsoon in some parts of the country and heavy floods causing huge losses in other parts, are a major cause of worry for the Congress and the Prime Minister. Despite the presence of financial experts like Finance Minister P. Chidambaram and Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia as close PM advisers, the economy is not showing the boom that was widely expected.
On foreign policy, the UPA is trying to ensure that there are no drastic changes. Talks with Pakistan are going on smoothly. Relations with the neighbours have been cordial and India is firm on not getting involved in any way with the post-Iraq developments. The Left pressure, notwithstanding, the policy towards the US and Israel has not undergone any change.
But the success or the failure of the Government would depend on what Sonia Gandhi does. In the coming months her role will be very important as she is considered a real leader of the UPA. The Maharashtra assembly poll will show whether the Congress still retains the popularity that helped it to oust the BJP-led government at the Centre.
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