India News Online » News Analysis » Indian Politics » 

State of the Government

	June 04, 2001

Despite setbacks to the BJP and its allies in the recently concluded Assembly elections, the NDA Government is safe for the time being as far as the number game goes. In fact, even before the elections, the BJP’s crisis managers had lined up MPs to offset the exit of the Trinamul and some Tamil parties like the PMK. They were hoping for defections in the Trinamul Congress and a return of some Tamil parties like the PMK. There were also two MPs belonging to Ajit Singh’s Lok Dal group in western Uttar Pradesh and four to five Independents who were likely to join the NDA. While efforts to increase the numbers are still going on, a clear picture of the BJP’s new allies will emerge in the near future.

While Ajit Singh’s Lok Dal has already announced its decision to join the NDA at the Centre, doubts still remain over the fate of the Trinamul Congress. Trinamul leader Mamata Banerjee has recently met the President, the Prime Minsiter and Mrs. Sonia Gandhi with her single-point agenda of highlighting the “blatant rigging” indulged in by the Left parties in West Bengal. Ms. Banerjee has demanded from the Prime Minister a commission of inquiry. She has the support of the Congress president in the matter.

Despite reservations in a section of the party against the alliance with the Trinamul, the Congress leadership has continued to hold out the olive branch to Ms. Banerjee and is inclined to take an indulgent view of her overtures to the NDA as an attempt to keep her party from breaking up. The Congress apparently feels that there is greater good in keeping Ms. Banerjee engaged than leaving her alone which may force her to rejoin the NDA. The Congress believes the alliance with the Trinamul in West Bengal not only prevented the BJP from opening its account in the state, but that her support would be crucial in the next Lok Sabha elections as well.

On its part, the BJP’s interests are also obvious. To strengthen the NDA, it would like Ms. Banerjee back in its fold. What is not evident and obvious is the mind of Ms. Banerjee herself. She is probably weighing the pros and cons of staying with the Congress or joining the NDA. Despite her defeat in West Bengal, it would not be wise to write off Ms. Banerjee.



Pitfalls of coalition politics

Prime Minister Vajpayee is slowly, but surely, learning the lessons of coalition politics. As one understands the realities of coalition politics, the fundamental compulsion of sustaining the Indian state order, against external challenges and internal weaknesses, becomes apparent. Nothing has highlighted the absurd demands coalition politics has come to make than the “Manipur drama”, where events have led to President’s rule in the State. The BJP once marketed itself as the only party capable of rising above narrow partisan interests to serve the national cause; now as the ruling party at the Centre its leadership is conducting itself in the style of the Congress. The Manipur and other disturbing events all add up to a larger pattern: the dilution of a national vision and a central authority, accompanied by an increasing erosion of all-Indian political instruments to operate an all- India polity. That is why, according to some observers, the BJP’s failure to make any headway in the recent Assembly elections was such a decisive setback; the cultivated calculus of coalition politics would not permit the BJP to emerge as an all-India party in its own right, and this failure means that it would not be able to replace the Congress(I) as an instrument of governance in a sub-continental polity. And the Congress(I), on its part, refuses to learn what it would take to reclaim its all-India presence. This despite the fact that it has more Chief Ministers than all the ruling coalition partners. This gives it the numbers in the Rajya Sabha and ensures that much of legislative business would have to be negotiated with the Opposition parties.



Problem of governance

Is there then a political vacuum with no party really knowing what is in the best national interest? This assessment is perhaps a bit too harsh. But governance is in a big mess. Central Ministers like Sharad Yadav (Civil Aviation) and Ram Vilas Paswan (Communications), it seems, are treating their respective departments as their personal fiefdoms and their decisions often go against the overall interest of the economy and the nation.

Although the Prime Minister still has the numbers in the Lok Sabha and any real threat to the Government can arise only if there is disaffection on the part of the TDP (see box item) or the Third Front becomes a reality and joins with the Congress (a tough proposition), there is disquiet over coalition distractions and the slow progress on the policy making and its execution. The cabinet reshuffle is being delayed as there are still several loose ends to be tied up. There is a lack of support from various administrative ministries which has delayed important issues like disinvestment and labour and financial reforms. The net effect is a loss of time for the Government. It was expected that the Government would push several important policy decisions during the inter-session period of Parliament. But this has not happened.

What has complicated matters even more for Mr. Vajpayee is the erosion of credibility of the Prime Minister’s Office.



The RSS pressure

Another trouble spot is the RSS. Although its senior leadership is appreciative of the Prime Minister’s compulsions and is in agreement with the view that there should not be any intrusion into the prime ministerial space, the labour and economic wings of the RSS have been attacking the Government persistently.

A crucial “chintan baithak” (brainstorming session) of the Bharatiya Janata Party and senior RSS leaders is expected to take place in July before the start of the monsoon session of Parliament. Indicating this last week, BJP president Jana Krishnamurthi said this would be the first to be held after a similar session at Virar in 1995.

While the venue of the meeting and its exact dates are yet to be fixed, what is certain is that decisions taken at the meeting will have an important bearing on the future course of the BJP. It was at Virar that the party had decided to come out of its political isolation, moved out to make friends, and searched out coalition partners.

In the “chintan baithak”, now being planned, it is but natural that the political situation, as it has developed in the last five to six years, and especially the state of coalition politics, will be looked into at some depth. The party will have to reach some conclusions on where it wants to go and how. Can it afford to continue pursuing the coalition path - and there seems to be no getting away from it - and yet hope that the BJP itself will grow in different States? The recent experience has shown that coalition politics is not helping the party to grow.

After the next round of Assembly elections the BJP may be in danger of losing two more States, - U.P. and Gujarat - and it would have power only in Himachal Pradesh. The party will have to do some hard thinking on coalitions in the States. In Karnataka, the BJP had paid a heavy price for its last-minute alliance with the Janata Dal, and in Assam, it was cut down to size after its misconceived alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad.

The state of the BJP and the direction it should take in the light of political developments will be the agenda of the “chintan baithak”. The meeting will take note that whereas in 1995 the Congress was on the decline, it may now be on the rise, as is evident from the recent Assembly elections. So one can expect a new BJP strategy to be worked out with the main objective of keeping the Congress in check.