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State of the Government : Decline of the BJP

	June 11, 2001

These are times for political parties to work out realignments in the wake of the outcome of the Assembly poll held last month. More elections to state Assemblies are to take place next year, significantly in Uttar Pradesh and later in Punjab and Gujarat. In all these three states, the BJP is on the defensive. This does not augur too well for either the party or for the National Democratic Alliance government at the Centre. The Congress, on the other hand, is in the ascendant, but is significantly not repeating earlier mistakes of trying to pull down the Government. In any case, at present there is no real alternative. But things could change rapidly.

The NDA is, therefore, trying to consolidate itself. Its alliance with the DMK is on a collision course with the latter asking for withdrawal of the Tamil Nadu Governor for having installed Jayalalitha as Chief Minister despite legal bars. Its alliance with the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Orissa is also showing signs of strain at the state level. In a meeting last week, many BJP legislators said the party would be better off supporting the BJD government from outside instead of being on unequal partners in the present coalition. The central BJP’s efforts to align with Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) which has pockets of influence in western UP, have run into trouble with the Haryana Chief Minister and INLD chief, Om Prakash Chautala, staunchly resisting the Prime Minister’s move to induct Ajit Singh as the Minister for Agriculture into his cabinet. In fact, the Prime Minister had suggested the Haryana Chief Minister to recommend two names from his party for induction into the Union Council of Ministers. This has been declined.

More trouble for the NDA and the BJP comes from the latter’s alliance partner in the state of Uttar Pradesh where the Loktantrik Congress Party chief and state Minister for Energy, Mr. Naresh Aggarwal, has taken exception to the reports that the BJP has been convinced of the idea of creating a separate “Harit Pradesh” comprising 17 districts in the western part of Uttar Pradesh as demanded by Ajit Singh. If Ajit Singh was being inducted into the NDA on the condition to divide the state, the Loktantrik Congress Party would prefer to sever its ties with the BJP government in the UP. The BJP leadership has reportedly now taken the position that Harit Pradesh could be formed only if the constituents of the NDA accept the idea.



Cosmetic organisational changes

The BJP on June 6 tried to effect a minor reshuffle in its central team, but ended up with the same old faces. The much-touted organisational revamp, the buzzword in the party in the aftermath of the Tehelka expose was confined to filling the vacant slots. For the rest, it comprised moving the leaders up or down, indicating a real paucity of talent in the party.

BJP president Jana Krishnamurthy’s team comprises two new general secretaries, Pyarelal Khandelwal and Sanghpriya Gautam, both vice presidents in Bangaru Laxman’s team. Khandelwal, who is incharge of UP makes his first appearance in the post, Gautam stages a comeback.

With Bangaru making an inglorious exit, the BJP has to fall back on him to save its dalit face. That the BJP is desperate to present a pro-dalit face is also proved by the elevation of Mr. Sanjay Paswan, a promising MP from Bihar, as a secretary.

Mr. Narendra Modi, Mr. Sunil Shastri and Mr. Maya Singh have been retained as general secretaries. Mr. Shastri and Maya Singh will also assist Modi as spokespersons of the party. It speaks volumes for the lack of depth in the BJP that it had to seek their services to act as its public face. A post once held by the likes of Mrs. Sushma Swaraj, Mr. K.N. Govindacharya and Mr. Yashwant Sinha has now been filled up by relatively inexperienced leaders. While Modi has been the public face of the BJP for some time, the other two have nothing to show as general secretaries.

The team has seven vice presidents. Former Delhi Chief Minister, Sahib Singh Verma’s wait for a berth in the Union Cabinet continues. Worse, he has been removed from the post of general secretary and kicked up as a vice president. Rajya Sabha Member, Ramdas Aggarwal, stages a comeback, while Mr. V. Rama Rao, ex-BJP chief in Andhra Pradesh, is the new face here. Mr. Kailashpati Mishra, Mr. M.L. Khurana, Mr. Karia Munda and M.r Gopinath Munde have been retained on the post.



Vajpayee vs. RSS

The BJP has been known for its organisational strength and discipline. But after it came to power there have been some internal power struggles that have damaged the image of the party. The above organisational changes will not restore the damaged image of the party. More important is the image of Prime Minister Vajpayee himself. He has come under considerable pressure from hardliners within his party and from the RSS.

The RSS has often played Vajpayee against Advani who is a favourite with the RSS. To an extent, there is rivalry between the two. Mr. Vajpayee has gained the upper hand due to his greater acceptability with the NDA allies. However, slowly but surely, Mr. Advani has bridged the gap. On account of the Prime Minister’s second knee operation, Advani has almost become the Deputy Prime Minister, though by default. The Cabinet Secretary has recognised this by writing a letter on June 6 to all members of the Cabinet stating, “the Prime Minister has directed that urgent matters requiring the decision of the cabinet or cabinet committees will be presided by the Home Minister in his absence for medical treatment.”

This is a kind of victory for Advani. The Prime Minister has been facing RSS pressure for the removal of his Principal Secretary, Brajesh Mishra. Though the Prime Minister had bought peace by lunching with the Home Minister last month, and Defence Minister Jaswant Singh declared that Mishra would continue to hold both the posts (of Principal Secretary to the PM as well as the post of National Security Advisor) till the National Security Council was properly constituted, there appears to be renewed pressure on Vajpayee to get his trusted aide to give up the post of NSA. The Group of Ministers (GoM) headed by Advani which went into the report of the Kargil Review Committee had recommended that Mishra should hold only one post. The final decision was left to the Prime Minister.

Under pressure, the Prime Minister appears to be keen to get back his friend, George Fernandes back as Defence Minister. This, however, would not be possible until the Venkatswamy Commission probing the allegations made by Tehelka.com holds him not guilty. This would obviously take some time. But there are reports that the Commission could submit an interim report facilitating the return of Fernandes to the Government. Fernandes’ supporters argue that if Brajesh Mishra, who was named by former BJP president Bangaru Laxman in the Tehelka tapes, has not resigned, there is no reason why the Samata leader should be penalised. The Mishra argument has come in as a handy weapon for all those in the RSS family who have been gunning for the Prime Minister’s principal aide.



Politics of the future

Many political analysts who have been watching events for the last few months do not paint a very comfortable picture for the BJP and the NDA. To sum up the results of the Assembly elections once again very briefly, the biggest winners are the CPI(M) in West Bengal and the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, while the biggest loser is the Trinamul Congress in West Bengal. Its leader, Ms. Mamata Banerjee, has resigned far too often and thrown far too many tantrums to be treated seriously. The other big loser is the BJP.

The Congress can, after its predictable wins in Assam and Kerala, and a reasonable performance in Pondicherry, claim victory of sorts and attribute the reasons for the same to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi’s dynastic continuance. The Congress would be pleased with Mamata’s discomfiture and she is back in the Congress fold by default since she has no other credible place to go. In Tamil Nadu the Congress will move cautiously with Ms. Jayalalitha who may well join the Left and SP engineered Third Front as and when it develops into a credible alternative. She is very much a leader in her own right and not given to fawning; therefore, like Mulayam Singh Yadav, she has little time for Sonia’s imperiousness and her limited ability.

According to Mr. Arun Nehru, cousin of late Rajiv Gandhi and former cabinet minister, the politics of the future is beginning to take shape and this is only logical.

The BJP will now struggle to keep its image as a cohesive party intact. There will be meetings and conclaves between the BJP and the RSS, but little will really emerge from these since basically, the BJP will try to stick to the NDA agenda, while the RSS will try and keep its extreme constituency intact by its tough posturing on contentious issues. Frankly, the BJP’s survival has much to do with governance and the art of keeping coalitions ticking and this means constant interaction with allies, a fact that is quite evidently missing. Whether it is with the Shiv Sena on the J & K ceasefire issue (now apparently resolved), or with the TDP on the Telengana state imbroglio, the BJP needs to retain the trust of its allies with more proactive co-ordination.

The BJP has a tough agenda on its hands. Foremost among the issues are those of leadership and its policy of handling its allies. Secondly there are assembly elections due in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab and wins in these states are vital for the continuance of the BJP as the top party in the Government!

Mr. Arun Nehru examines these issues. The basic question he asks is whether Prime Minister Vajpayee is fit for a 14-16 hour work schedule and constant tours as required for by exacting demands of this highest office in the country. The question also arises whether the Prime Minister will lead the party into the next Lok Sabha elections, when he will be close to eighty ? If not, then a successor needs to be in place, and as events have unfolded within the party over the years, there are few options other than L.K. Advani. Mr Vajpayee is, without doubt, as good as leaders can be, and has the vision and the depth of understanding to address serious issues with consummate wisdom. It is precisely because of his considerable abilities that he is where he is. However, what about the future ? It is an issue that cannot be wished away.

Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh are very tough. The Samajwadi Party will be the main opponent while the BSP will offer strong resistance. The Samajwadi party is the favourite with the BJP/BSP in second place and in case there is a tight finish, then the smaller parties and even the BSP/Congress can split for ministerial berths; this has happened before and can happen again! There is little doubt that Rajnath Singh and Kalraj Mishra are the best that the BJP has, but it is not easy to reverse a trend. Smaller alliances will have a little effect, but the BJP, may find, other than Ajit Singh of course, tie-ups difficult.

The Congress in Uttar Pradesh is, sadly, in the same position as it finds itself in Tamil Nadu, Bihar or West Bengal, and desperately needs an ally. But the party has huge resources and will use them, as UP and Punjab are crucial. There are also problems for the BJP in Gujarat where the Congress could sweep the poll as and when elections are held.

The Indian economy is not exactly in trouble but as political events become confused the reform process will suffer. What the BJP must realise is that unless the quality of governance improves, it is headed for disaster since its allies will not be willing to sink with it in any state.