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State of the government : How does it survive ? |
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The Monsoon session of Parliament begins from July 23. The Ayodhya controversy is likely to be raised by the Opposition. This time, however, the proceedings of the two Houses may not be stalled. There was a considerable criticism of the Congress when it refused to let the Budget Session function in view of the Tehelka issue.
Much of the pressure on the Government is from outside Parliament. The Manipur crisis has put the Government, especially the Home Minister, Mr. L.K. Advani, on the backfoot. Apparently, the Government’s move to strike a lasting peace deal with Naga insurgents has grossly misfired. Then, there are pressures on the BJP as well as the Government to do well in the three States where Assembly elections will take place next year. These are Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. In fact, there is a minority view in the media, and in some political circles, that the Vajpayee Government may go in for simultaneous Lok Sabha elections along with those in Uttar Pradesh. This view is, however, in the realm of imagination and conjecture so far. But there is no doubt that the credibility of the NDA as an alliance has been damaged, not the least because of the negative Assembly poll results.
Yet the Government survives and there is no immediate danger. This is because of certain unique trends that have emerged in the Indian polity of late. The reason why the BJP could cobble together an alliance at the Centre comprising as many as 24 parties in 1999 was that its success was assured at the time. In contrast, those who opposed it never seemed confident enough to attract anyone to their camp. What appears rather odd at the moment, however, is that although the BJP is clearly on a weaker wicket than when it assumed charge, its capacity to lure new members to its side remains undiminished. The party has shown this capacity not only at the Centre but also in Uttar Pradesh although its prospects of retaining power there are considered quite dim. Apart from wooing Mr. Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal and a Kurmi outfit called Apna Dal, there is speculation that the BJP may exploit the enmity between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in the State to its advantage.
What conjectures of this nature underline is not only the unabashed opportunism which guides virtually all the parties these days but also the realisation among them about how the existing unsettled conditions can be utilised for mutual benefit. So, it is not only a quest for power which is bringing these parties together - that, of course, remains the main motivating factor - but also an increasing awareness of their bargaining power. The fact that the BJP is less secure at present is clearly of considerable solace to those parties which are gravitating towards it because they expect to have more leverage than before. Evidently, if the BJP’s political ‘strength’ was its main attraction earlier, its ‘weakness’ is playing the same role now.
There may also be a third factor. Some of the parties and individuals which are hovering round the BJP like moths near a flame also have nowhere to go. Former Defence Minister Mr. George Fernandes is a good example, for he has destroyed his links with the ‘secular’ camp so effectively that he now has to sink or swim with the Hindutva lobby. Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee is another.
But many analysts say that a defeat for the party in the Uttar Pradesh elections, would be a serious setback to the BJP and also the NDA. And, according to analyst Mohit Sen, there are alternatives to the BJP. One of these alternatives is the People’s Front consisting of the Samajwadi Party, the CPI(M) and associated Left parties and any other party which is willing to join it. The only precondition is that the party concerned should oppose the BJP and keep away from the Congress. The architect of this strategy is the CPI(M)’s general secretary, Harkishan Singh Surjeet. He has always insisted that while communalism makes the BJP the enemy of the Left, so does the economic strategy and programme of the Congress. At times communalism becomes the greater danger, while at other times, it is the compromise with neo-colonialism. Hence the need for a third force which can oppose both the BJP and the Congress but still have the flexibility to make either the main target.
The other alternative is that of a revived Congress which keeps the option of alliances and coalitions open, which has a position of supremacy but not domination and which embodies an all-India progressive nationalism. This, of course, requires the Congress to restore its presence everywhere in the country but not necessarily its rule. It requires not the preparation of any new programme but the presentation of itself - its history and its vision.
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