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State of the BJP : Looking at the future

	August 09, 2004

Though the BJP tried to revive itself at its recent Goa Chintan Baithak (brainstorming session), it appears, that the party has not been able to absorb the shock of the defeat in the Lok Sabha elections. Instead of working as a responsible and constructive opposition, it has been behaving irrationally. This has caused doubts among the allies of the BJP in the NDA, who think they had enough. After a lot of dilly-dallying, during which the proceedings of Parliament were continuously disrupted, the NDA finally withdrew its decision not to participate in parliamentary committees.

But the concern for the BJP has been that it has been recently under pressure from the NDA partners. It isn’t the Sangh Parivar (RSS family) alone that has been giving the BJP a hard time. The party finds itself under attack by at least four of its major NDA allies, with differences ranging from ideology, to sharing of river waters, to personality clashes.



Concern over Hindutva

The BJP’s decision to promote Hindutva has been worrying the allies for a long time. Though Sushma Swaraj claims that Hindutva is not an electoral issue but a way of life and thus there is no going back to Hindutva, the allies don’t want to be part of an alliance that plays the communal card to win elections. The BJP asserts that it was proud of Hindutva, arguing it was not associated with religion but nationalism and its rival parties were “misrepresenting” the terminology to portray themselves as secular. The party also claimed that construction of Ram Temple in Ayodhya was not linked to religion and emphasised that it will not bring Hindutva into the political sphere. “Hindutva is not related to religion but nationalism and national prestige. We are proud of it,” party Vice President and spokesperson Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi has said. Hindutva was “not a political commitment for BJP but an ideological one. So we will not like to bring it into the political sphere”, according to him.

The BJP claims that the Hindutva agenda has been interpreted in a wrong way. It has been equated with just three issues - the construction of a Ram temple at the disputed land in Ayodhya, the implementation of a uniform civil code and the abrogation of Article 370 that conferred special status on Jammu and Kashmir.



Problems with former allies

While organisational reforms take place, the biggest threat to the BJP is from its former allies who are concerned about the revival of Hindutva. The TDA’s biggest fear is that if BJP goes back to its original ideology, it would find it difficult to approach Muslim voters. There are pointers that the TDP has snapped its ties with the BJP. TDP leaders explain the situation saying, “We were never a part of NDA. TDP always extended outside support to NDA as it wanted to keep Congress out of power. But it does not mean that TDP had compromised on its policies. The party differed with BJP on many issues.”

As long as former Prime Minister and moderate leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee was powerful in NDA, the allies had never raised their voice as they trusted him. But with the BJP announcing that it was no longer a personality based party, Vajpayee’s position seems to have weakened in the party. Parties like the TDP and Janata Dal (United) are worried over the BJP’s decision to revert to its Hindutva agenda.

The Andhra Pradesh BJP leaders also agree with this. They feel that the alliance had no meaning after the polls. The BJP leaders including Bandaru Dattatreya say that the parties have been working on their own. They have never even bothered to consult each other on any of the post election issues. There was no floor coordination during the just concluded assembly session. The TDP had made a vain attempt in the beginning of the budget session to have floor coordination but gave up as there was no positive response from BJP, TDP leaders say. Similarly, TDP has not sought the cooperation of BJP in their agitation on the issue of release of water for farmers under Krishna delta.

For the JD(U), headed for assembly elections in Bihar and Jharkhand in early 2005, the recent General Election was a wake-up call. The party found itself marginalised by the RJD-led combine and the Congress-led combine in Bihar and Jharkhand, respectively. At the just-concluded JD(U) national executive, senior party leader Digvijay Singh said: “If the BJP returns to the old agenda, then we will not be with them. There cannot be any two opinions on this.”

On the other hand, the Shiv Sena feels that the BJP doesn’t consult it enough on NDA decisions. Since the BJP needs the Sena more than before as it has decided to follow Hindutva, the latter’s behaviour is obvious. Moreover the Maharashtra assembly elections are due and the Sena thinks it is the best time to express its dissatisfaction. In Punjab, the Akali Dal continues to back Chief Minister Amarinder Singh’s controversial decision to cancel of the SYL agreement, despite being dissuaded by the BJP leadership.



Preparing for elections

Analysts are of the opinion that the BJP has become rootless and clueless. Assembly elections are due in five states—Bihar, Maharashtra, Arunachal Pradesh, Haryana and Jharkhand. The state of Bihar has been basically Laloo’s land and the BJP does not have any clue to woo Bihari voters. In Maharashtra, it largely depends on the Shiv Sena. Keeping in mind the results of Lok Sabha elections in the state, the future does not seem to hold any positive news for BJP. The biggest cause of worry for the BJP is, however, Uttar Pradesh which was its heartland. The Congress and Chief Minister Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party seem to dominate the state politics and the BJP is nowhere in the picture.

Therefore, though the “10-point Conclusion Document” of the BJP’s `chintan baithak’ in Goa does not have the word Hindutva, the party explained that nationalism is just another word for Hindutva. “Nationalism and development will be the party’s twin mantra for the future,” said BJP vice-president Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi who was among the 30 leaders at the exclusive conclave.



RSS increases its influence

In a key move aimed at strengthening the RSS’ grip over the BJP, the BJP has announced the appointment of zonal organising secretaries belonging to the RSS. The low-profile RSS men will be the live link between the parent organisation and its political wing.

The BJP also announced its list of new central leader in-charge of states, of which the names from Uttar Pradesh were the most significant. Keen to revive in UP and stem the factionalism in the state unit, plum assignments have been given to the leading troika of central leaders Kalyan Singh, Rajnath Singh and Kalraj Mishra. Kalyan Singh has been made “leader” of UP, while Rajnath Singh and Kalraj Mishra have been given the charge of two major states each. Rajnath will now look after Chhattisgarh, in addition to the election-bound Jharkhand state, while Mishra has got both Rajasthan and Delhi.

Although Rajnath Singh and Mishra will not be involved in the day-to-day affairs of their home state, the “respect and responsibility” given to them is aimed at beefing up their respective support bases in UP, sources said. Since Rajnath Singh is regarded as the party’s key Thakur leader in UP and Mishra belongs to the Brahmin old guard, their elevation is also part of the strategy to regain the support of upper castes who largely abandoned the BJP in the last elections, they added.

Pramod Mahajan was put in charge of Maharashtra but Arun Jaitley was given charge of Madhya Pradesh, in addition to Bihar.

A number of former ministers have also been drafted into the organisation. They include Shahnawaz Hussain (Orissa), Jaskaur Meena (Punjab), Rajiv Pratap Rudy (Sikkim) and Swamy Chinmayanand (Arunachal Pradesh).

Former RSS pracharak Seshadri Chari has been made in-charge of Uttaranchal. Bal Apte, has got Andhra Pradesh, while Bihar leader, Sushil Modi, has been put in charge of West Bengal and M.A. Naqvi of Himachal Pradesh.



BJP to hold CMs’ conclave

The BJP is, therefore, getting its act together. The party has learnt one lesson from Congress’ success in the elections. It has decided to hold a BJP chief ministers’ conclave and conclaves of ministers of Education, Health, Rural Development, Social Justice etc to exchange best practices and highlight success stories. The need to make BJP state governments “more popular” was one of the themes discussed at the party’s recently-held Chintan Baithak in Goa and seems directly inspired by the initiative taken by Congress president Sonia Gandhi to hold a series of such Chief Ministers’ conclaves in the years that the Congress was out of power at the Centre.

The Congress CMs’ conclaves were important brainstorming sessions where goals were identified, targets set, and information exchanged. The idea of the CMs’ conclave apart, the BJP has also started invoking the “aam aadmi” (common man) a figure made famous by the Congress’ advertising campaign in the run-up to the elections. Moreover, the BJP has decided to focus on the problem of ordinary people.

The party’s sudden desire to focus on such issues is partly a result of the threat by the Janata Dal (United) to walk out of the NDA if the BJP returns to hardline Hindutva. News of the JD(U) threat tempered the deliberations at Goa, with the BJP top brass deciding to underplay its ideological distinctiveness - at least for the moment. Although the BJP will continue to take up issues dear to its “ideological constituency”, such as campaigns against reservation for Muslims, repeal of POTA, and the “competitive pseudo-secularism of the Congress, Communists, and other UPA partners”, the leadership wants to leaven it with some economic issues as well.

Significantly, has set up a three-member committee comprising Arun Jaitley, Arun Shourie and Yashwant Sinha to study the impact of the latest WTO agreements on India’s agriculture and trade. The BJP hopes to drive a wedge between the Congress and the Left by highlighting the compromises made by the Government in Geneva. Therefore, agitation against “tainted ministers” would continue in Parliament.