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State of Indian Polity : Turbulent waters of Uttar Pradesh

	September 01, 2003

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party at the Centre walked out of the coalition Government in one of India’s most politically significant state of Uttar Pradesh on August 25. This resulted in the collapse of 16-month old BSP-BJP Government headed by Mayawati, and installation of the new Government led by Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav who was sworn in as Chief Minister for the third time on August 29.

The BJP’s decision to pull out of the ruling coalition in Uttar Pradesh was reportedly taken following growing differences with the BSP Chief Minister Mayawati on various party matters and state issues which included the real estate scandal near the historic Taj Mahal in Agra.

Mulayam Singh is a former Defence Minister who is said to have a reputation of having close links with the underworld, the film industry and big business. His new found allies include Ajit Singh of the Rashtriya Lok Dal, once an NDA ally, and Rashtriya Kranti Dal leader Kalyan Singh who formed his own state level party after quitting the BJP and the RSS family.

The new Chief Minister’s first major decision was to revoke the detention of Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiyya, an alleged gangster-turned-politician, who had been detained under Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) by the Mayawati Government. The SP and the BJP had been calling his detention an act of vendetta for his breaking away to hit out at Mayawati.

Though Mayawati may not be happy at the sight of her arch rival ascending the throne in UP, observers are of the opinion that by inviting Mulayam Singh Yadav to form an alternative Government, State Governor Vishnu Kant Shastri played it by the book. After the fall of the Mayawati Government, democratic convention required the Governor to explore the prospects of an alternative Government before contemplating any drastic steps like dissolution of the Assembly or imposition of President’s Rule. The latter would imply rule by the Central Government.

In deep political trouble over the scandalous Rs.175-crore Taj Heritage Corridor project now being probed by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) under orders from the Supreme Court, the BSP leader Mayawati decided to recommend dissolution of the State Assembly. The Samajwadi Party, the single largest party in the Assembly, alone had the potential to form an alternative Ministry. The potential was actualised through the smaller parties in the Assembly conveying their willingness to support a Yadav Government. For the BJP, observers feel it was a sweet revenge for Mayawati’s sudden action in ditching the BJP. It was BJP Legislature Party leader Lalji Tandon’s pre-emption of Mayawati’s move for Assembly dissolution by informing the Governor of the party’s decision to withdraw support that paved the way for Mulayam becoming the Chief Minister.

The BSP-BJP coalition, put in place after the fractured verdict of February 2002, was an unstable arrangement from the very beginning. Observers allege that Mayawati’s Chief Ministership was an example of repression, contempt for the norms of coalition ethics, and abuse of power. She recently made a costly miscalculation by serving an ultimatum on Prime Minister Vajpayee to throw Tourism Minister Jagmohan out of the Union Cabinet. It quickly became clear that her hostility to Jagmohan had more to do with his proper and timely opposition to the Taj Heritage Corridor project. With the Prime Minister and other senior BJP leaders deciding to reject the ultimatum, Mayawati found herself exposed with the CBI on her trail and the Central Government studiously refusing to save her. With the CBI inquiry reportedly finding evidence of her approving the Taj Heritage Corridor project which gives the lie to her earlier protestations, the filing of a criminal case against Mayawati seems imminent.

The BJP has admitted what political observers have been saying for long. The party says its decision to have an alliance with BSP in Uttar Pradesh was well intentioned though it turned out to be politically incorrect.

“Our intention was right... to ward off another Assembly election we went for an alliance with BSP, but our decision was not right,” the state BJP president Vinay Katyar said. “We helped Mayawati in becoming Chief Minister thrice with a view to inculcating a sense of confidence and pride among the deprived section of society, whom Mayawati claims to represent, he said. “But unfortunately our aspirations did not come true and the chasm between us widened”, Katiyar said.

Analysts are of the view that the latest political developments in Uttar Pradesh may prove both advantageous and disadvantageous for the BJP. Firstly, it will be in the Opposition in Assembly after more than half a decade of being part of the establishment.

The developments may have negative impact on the image of the party. Mayawati has said that she will start a countrywide campaign against the BJP that “pulled down” her government because she did not withdraw Babri mosque demolition cases against some top BJP leaders (who include Deputy Prime Minister Advani) and had refused to wind up the Special Court at Rae Bareli.

But the BJP still hopes to revive its base in UP. It believes that all is not lost in Uttar Pradesh though it has been caught off guard by developments following Mayawati’s move to seek fresh elections. The BJP leaders are hoping that the two main parties in the State, the BSP and the SP, will fight it out on the streets and leave the BJP alone to get down to the business of re-claiming its old support base.

As BJP chief Venkaiah Naidu put it, the party hopes to succeed by avoiding the caste-driven politics of the SP and the BSP, focusing instead on ideology that can help it win back the 38 per cent vote share it commanded once. With Mulayam Singh in office, the BJP thinks that it can reinvent for itself an aggressive Opposition role. There is also the possibility, according to some BJP leaders, that Mayawati will feel the full heat of Yadav’s power and return for a patch-up just before the Lok Sabha poll next year.

A section in the BJP sees enough reasons to be happy over the whole development. They are hoping for a repeat of 1989-91. That was Mulayam Singh’s first spell in office when the BJP, riding the crest of the Ramjanmabhoomi temple movement, expanded its base throughout the state and won power on its own for the first time in India’s crucial state. One of BJP’s state leaders, Kalraj Mishra, has expressed his happiness over Mulayam taking reins in his hands. The BJP’s biggest issue would once again be Ayodhya. ‘’You can call it a coincidence - when we first raised the Ramjanmabhoomi issue, Mulayam Singh was the chief minister. And today, when the ASI (Archaeological Survey of India) report has vindicated our case, Mulayam Singh will once again be in power,’’ said Kalraj Mishra. The unstated assumption: Mulayam will once again play tough and the BJP will garner the long-dissipated ‘’Hindu’’ vote.

Mishra, in typical RSS-speak, is quick to add that they don’t want any ‘’confrontation’’ with Muslims over the Ram temple issue. ‘’Now that the ASI report has confirmed the existence of a 10th century temple at the site, I am confident that Muslims will come forward and Hindus and Muslims will jointly construct the temple,’’ he says.

Another BJP leader, Vinay Katiyar, agrees that Ayodhya will be the big issue again. He insists that if Mulayam only listens to Muslims and not to Hindus, there will be problems. And he feels he will do exactly that.

The truth is that many in the state BJP are hoping that Mulayam dons the ‘’turki topi’’ (Muslim hat) and thereby delivers the ‘’Hindu’’ vote. A local leader confessed that ‘’polarisation’’ was the surest way for the BJP to regain its lost base and no polarisation can take place unless Mulayam decides to aggressively champion the cause of the minorities and places hurdles in building the Ram temple.

However, a section of the BJP believes that a mild Mulayam is a far better option for more than one reason. First, a friendly (or non-hostile) State government can help the BJP top leader who are embroiled in the Babri Masjid demolition case. Moreover, in their search for allies to prop up their rule in New Delhi, the BJP would like to keep alive the option of a tie-up with the SP in the post-Lok Sabha poll scenario.



Mayawati, the main loser

If the BJP wins, Mayawati may turn out to be the main loser. Her bid to broaden the base of the BSP may have failed. Analysts recall that out of power, Mayawati has failed to contain the drift in her party. In the past too, the BSP had disintegrated - in 1995 and 1997 - after the fall of her government. Indications are that the party is heading towards yet another split.

Mayawati’s experiment of aligning with the upper castes to expand her constituency may not have worked as a majority of the deserters who walked over to Mulayam camp are MLAs from this section. Nine Thakurs, three Muslims and two Yadav MLAs have already deserted her party and more are waiting in the wings.

It was electoral arithmetic alone which had made upper-caste and Muslim MLAs join the BSP during the last elections. There was hardly any ideological commitment. They were quick to desert the party on the first available opportunity. The bonhomie between the sarvjan (all castes) and bahujan (Scheduled Castes) has evaporated.



Congress strategy

The Congress party continues to be in a dilemma on whether to support Mulayam by joining his government or from outside. The Congress Working Committee (CWC) has met over the issue and the decision has been left to party President Sonia Gandhi.

There seems to be a horizontal divide between the senior AICC (All India Congress Committee) leaders and UP Congress leaders on the extent of involvement with the SP-led government. While senior leaders of the AICC stress that the Congress should extend support from outside, the state leadership is keen on joining the Mulayam government.

But the middle-liners seem to have won who have been saying that the CWC should just resolve to ‘’assist’’ in the formation of a ‘’secular alternative government’’ and leave other issues for a later date. Party leaders’ main argument for staying out of the government is the historical apprehensions of the Congress with the SP, only fuelled by the perception that the BJP could be the hand that is holding the strings to this government. The Congress leadership forecasts a resurgence of the temple movement in the state after the ASI excavation report. Senior leaders are also of the view that UP should not become another Bihar for the party where the Congress is repeatedly on the defensive because of actions of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) government.

Lastly, the Congress is going to contest the Assembly polls in the four states where there is BSP clout. Thus, the party is keen on keeping a window open for a possible electoral adjustment with the BSP. The dalit vote bank in the northern states is substantial and was actually keenly sought after by the BJP.



The future

Experts are of the opinion that Mulayam Singh Yadav’s task of running the Government now may not be as difficult as it appears. The Samajwadi Party, with 142 members in the Assembly, is a strong force with well-organised support and major resources. The smaller supporting groups, including the Congress and Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal, will find it difficult to pull the rug from under his feet. To make up a majority and run a stable government, Yadav will need to muster support from other quarters. The track record suggests that power in the hands of a strong man like Yadav could be an irresistible magnet.

Mayawati’s BSP seems to be cracking up, but the number of MLAs willing to cross over from its ranks will need to be at least 37 for the defectors to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law.

Analysts say that the state is at crossroads with the new Chief Minister to prove his majority in the Assembly. There are four possible scenarios.

The BJP can abstain from voting on a confidence motion helping Mulayam Singh win the trust vote. The rebel BSP MLAs (13) can follow party whip to avoid action under anti-defection law. They split the party after getting required number (37) and Mulayam can gain comfortable majority.

Mulayam can win the trust vote even if the BJP opposes the SP-led government. The BSP splinter group (13) can help Mulayam but in this circumstance Mayawati can give notice to the Assembly Speaker K.N. Tripathi demanding action against the rebel MLAs and Speaker can reserve his ruling.

Even if the Speaker decides to disqualify 13 BSP rebels, the strength of the Assembly would be reduced to 389 and Mulayam will still have the majority in the House with an assured support of 199.

If Mulayam wins the trust vote and decides to remove the Speaker (who is a BJP nominee) so that he can make attempts to split the BJP later. With a friendly Speaker, the task could be easier.

Mulayam Singh Yadav has come to power due to the desertions from the BSP, the support from the Congress and most important, the BJP readiness not to put any stumbling blocks in the way of Mulayam Singh having a shot at Chief Ministership, thus avoiding House dissolution. But by no means, stability has been achieved in Uttar Pradesh. If the BSP-BJP coalition was an opportunistic one, the present one is not much different. Any of the parties in the SP combine has the potential to bring down the government, argue analysts.

But the political marriage of convenience between the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party, according to observers, was sure to lead to a break-up. It had not worked on an earlier occasion and both Mayawati and the leaders of the BJP unit in UP knew that nothing had changed since then for the uneasy coalition to last a full five-year term. At the state-level only former West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu and at the national level only Prime Minister Vajpayee have been successful in making coalition governments work.