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Sri Lanka : On the brink of war with LTTE |
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Harjit Singh
Though the LTTE has restored the water supply to farmers on the Government side of the North-East in Trincomalee and opened the sluice gates on the Maavli Aru water channel, it is just a short respite from the long-drawn out confrontation of which the 2002 ceasefire would be a major casualty. The ceasefire is already under pressure after the LTTE ultimatum to the European monitors in the SLMM to withdraw after the EU banned the LTTE. As remarked by a military spokesman, the LTTE has intensified its terrorist activities to such an extent that it appears that they want to have a full scale confrontation. Norwegian envoy Bauer and the SLMM chief Henriccsen helped resolve the water row and accompanied the LTTE representatives to open the sluice gates of the water channel but the Government has refused to endorse their action and the LTTE alleged that their team which was going site to open the sluice gates came under fire from government forces.
That the LTTE is up to more serious confrontation with the Sri Lankan troops becomes clear from the LTTE attack, using a force of 400 to 500 fighters on the de facto frontline in the Jaffna peninsula and nearby islet within a day of the settlement of the water row. An estimated 150 combatants are said to have been killed and another 300 wounded in the heavy fighting between government troops and Tamil Tigers. Simultaneously, the Tigers fired at the Trincomalee Navy and Air Force bases in the North east of the island. Two weeks ago, Sea Tigers had made another abortive attempt to ram a navy vessel carrying over 850 soldiers with five suicide boats. This was followed by an encroachment in Muttur jetty and beyond which would have further endangered troops’ sea movement to Jaffna.
The latest sign of the LTTE supremo, V. Prabhakaran determined to undermine the ceasefire and take on the military became available when the LTTE team to the Oslo talks on strengthening the Nordic Monitoring Mission and ensuring their safety, boycotted the tripartite meeting involving Norway, Sri Lanka and the LTTE.
The breaking away of the Karuna faction in 2004 which LTTE alleges was the handiwork of the Government in Colombo, was the starting point of the present confrontation. Beginning with the assassination of Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar exactly one year ago, and rising number of attacks on the military from November last, the Mahinda Rajapakse Government exercised utmost restraint. However, the attempt on the life of the Army chief and the assassination of another senior General in a car bomb attack left the Government with no option but to, for the first time since the 2002 ceasefire, launch air attacks on the LTTE positions which were repeated after the Tigers stopped the flow of water from a source in the Tiger-controlled territory for use of people living in government-controlled areas.
While the LTTE’s confrontation with the Government is partly traced to its own frustration with the Government branding it a terrorist outfit and the Mahinda Rajapakse Government’s backing for the breakaway former eastern commander Col. Karuna, it is equally encouraged by the hands-off policy of India in the conflict. India had, after it burnt its fingers when it sent the Peace Keeping Force during Jayawardene’s Presidency, vowed not to play a pro-active role again. No amount of persuasion of the present Rajapakse Government could make the Manmohan Singh Government change its position. Both President Rajapakse and his Foreign Minister paid visits to Delhi to persuade it to revise its policy but failed to move the Government. A comprehensive military agreement between India and Sri Lanka too is awaiting signing but there is opposition to it from Tamil Nadu. An additional reason of the UPA Government not jumping into the fray is the political situation in Tamil Nadu, where the party in power, DMK of Karunanidhi, is also an ally of the Government at the Centre. There are certain other smaller parties supporting the Government which have strong covert and overt ties with the LTTE. They are opposed to any kind of intervention in Colombo on the side of the Government which would mean harming the Tamils. So much so that last month, a batch of Sri Lankan policemen who had come for training had to be sent back from Tamil Nadu after some local parties objected to their training, which, they alleged, would be used to suppress the Tamils in the North East. The fear of an exodus of Tamil Refugees into Tamil Nadu is also deterring the Indian Government from intervention.
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