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Sonia sets eyes on Lok Sabha elections

	November 11, 2002

The Congress is clearly setting its eyes on the next Lok Sabha elections, due two years hence, and has clarified that it is not opposed to forming a government at the Centre with other parties if the need arises. The meeting of Congress Chief Ministers at Mount Abu, Rajasthan, though meant to review the performance of governments in Congress-ruled States, ended up as clear signals to the party’s objectives the future Assembly and Lok Sabha polls. Gujarat was obviously the top most item in the discussions chaired by party chief Sonia Gandhi.

In her speech to the Chief Ministers (CMs) and later at a Press conference, Sonia Gandhi openly stated that she was not averse to the idea of her party teaming with others to come to power at the Centre. The Congress is already part of coalitions in four States - it heads the governments in Maharashtra and Kerala and is a partner in Bihar and Jammu and Kashmir.

Sonia explained that her main aim would be to strengthen her party but “we are not opposed to a coalition at the national level and we don’t have a closed mind” on the matter. And for the first time perhaps, though without saying anything further, Sonia did not rule out her being in the race for the post of Prime Minister.

She spelt out the party’s final aim to be achieved by 2004 general election: “We have to consolidate, retaining power in the State where we are in the office and ousting the BJP and its allies in States where we are in the Opposition.”

Sonia Gandhi was upbeat about the Congress’s prospects: “I think we have done fairly well. I think there is still room to work more and to make a greater effort.” However, she admitted that the party will have to discuss the issue of strengthening its organisation in UP, Bihar and some other major States.



On UP, Gujarat and J&K

She answered a wide range of questions. Without seeking any assistance from senior party leaders, Sonia made it clear that the Congress was not going to hand over power in Uttar Pradesh to the Samajwadi Party on a platter. It was obvious that the Congress did not want to join any game of breaking governments. “We are open to working with like-minded secular parties. The situation is fluid in UP. If the government falls under the weight of its contradictions, we will move in. We have asked the Governor to convene a special session of the Assembly so that the picture becomes clea,” she added.

She answered questions on a wide range of issues but Gujarat and Jammu and Kashmir seemed to dominate Sonia Gandhi’s mind as she kicked off the Chief Ministers’ conclave, giving a loud call for replacement of the NDA Government by Congress rule that would “take the country from stagnation to growth, from strife to harmony and from darkness to light.” The BJP-led NDA Government has just completed three years in office at the Centre. The country has seen through the hollow claims made by the coalition which has been a comprehensive failure, she pointed out.

Though unsparing of NDA rule, she began her opening remarks with J-K and Gujarat, indicating where her priorities lie in the days to come. In fact, point out observers, her eagerness betrayed what most in the meet would not admit in front of a camera: That the major - but unstated - objective of the conclave was to sharpen the Congress’ political objective now that the going was good. All else, including the need for economic and administrative reforms, came next even though much would be talked about these too.

In Jammu and Kashmir, Sonia emphasized , the Congress was determined to ensure that the common minimum programme was implemented both in letter and in spirit to secure a new future for its people. The electoral victory in J-K was reflected in Sonia’s “confidence” in the people of Gujarat, whom she held would come out decisively in favour of the Gujarat of Mahatma Gandhi (Father of the Nation) and Sardar Patel (free India’s first Home Minister) irrespective of their caste, religion and economic status.

“We are going to Gujarat with one overriding message,” she told the CMs, “it’s the message of religious tolerance and understanding. Gujarat’s economic success can only be sustained if bigotry is defeated.”



Message to Chief Ministers

She opened the conclave with a review of the six-month-old Guwahati resolve and asked the Chief Ministers to be more self-critical and introspective. “India needs a strong Centre, strong states and strong panchayats (village bodies) and nagarpalikas (municipalities), all supporting and driving strength from each other,” she said. Sonia reminded the partymen that the country was looking to the Congress to provide a Government that would govern and an administration that would administer.

The two-day conclave concluded on November 9 with the CMs striving to get their act together for effectively implementing the nine-point Guwahati Resolve they had adopted in April. To streamline the effort, the conclave did not adopt any fresh formal declaration or document. Instead, some additional points would be appended as guidelines for the 14 Congress-ruled States, five of which go to the polls in the next two years.

Sonia’s remarks indicated that the tasks set up for the Congress Chief Ministers were painstaking and time-consuming but imperative if the party had to hardsell its message of delivering “good governance” for the next round of Assembly and general election. Although gaps in the implementation of the Guwahati Resolve and angularities in the All India Congress Committee (AICC) policies and the States’ stand on issues like disinvestment seemed to prevail, Sonia was quick to defend her party Chief Ministers.



Tide turning in favour of Congress

In the eyes of political pundits, the tide seems to be turning in favour of the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress. Several factors have helped shape such a perception. The foremost is the presence of Congress governments in 13 States: Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Manipur, Pondicherry, Punjab, Rajasthan, Kerala, Uttaranchal and Nagaland. A Congress-led coalition, including the party of former Congressmen, rules Maharashtra, while in Bihar, Kerala and now Jammu and Kashmir, the party is an ally of the reigning dispensations. Constituents of the NDA, by contrast, have governments in just a few States. The BJP, the coalition’s dominant component, reigns independently and with allies in Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Goa and Uttar Pradesh. It supports the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) regime in Andhra Pradesh. And that is about it.

The NDA’s other components are not faring too well. The DMK was dislodged from power in Tamil Nadu by the Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK. The Biju Janata Dal struggles for survival in Orissa. The Samata Party and the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) have failed to dent the bastion of a former Chief Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar while Ram Vilas Paswan chose to part ways with the NDA some months ago. Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress continues to watch and berate the CPI(M)-led Communist Government in West Bengal from the sidelines. The National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir, voted out of power in the recent Assembly elections, is still undecided about whether it should stay in the NDA or not, as some people blame its poor performance on its closeness to Hindutva (Hindu chauvinism) forces.

The fact that there will be Assembly elections in 10 States in the coming one year highlights the relative strength of the NDA and its main opponent in the form of the Congress. Of these, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh are BJP-ruled; Nagaland, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have Congress governments; Tripura has a CPI(M) regime; and Meghalaya and Mizoram have regional parties in power. Judging by the division of spoils among the existing parties, the Congress has the upper hand.

Observers feel this is bad news for the BJP as it indicates its failure to actualise a two-party system, and countrywide endorsement of its revivalist and economic policies. No doubt, the outcome of Assembly polls is usually determined by the anti-incumbency factor, and the Congress’s position of advantage may give way.

In fact, even its present strength seems to have been acquired by default in some States, where the BJP and its allies are on weak ground, as in predominantly Christian Nagaland, as well as tribals-dominated Chhattisgarh, where again Christian evangelism is pronounced. As for the rest, there can be no substitute for good governance, and the Congress gained for this reason in the Hindi belt States of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh in the last round of elections, which saw the BJP being voted out of power. The anti-incumbency factor has operated to the Congress’s benefit in Jammu and Kashmir, where its role as the PDP’s secondary partner will not prove to be a liability in the event of the tenure of the coalition Ministry getting aborted in the terrorism-afflicted State.

In fact, Congress president Sonia Gandhi is currently being praised for her generosity in conceding the Chief Minister’s post for three years to the People’s Democratic Party of J&K. This has served to boost her own image, just as her refusal to collaborate with the Samajwadi Party in replacing the reigning BSP-BJP combine in UP with an opportunistic alliance, has won her hosannas. By appearing to act responsibly, she is emerging as a mature leader, whose party has overcome earlier electoral reverses to provide stable governments in the States. The BJP and its allies, by contrast, are seen to have frittered away their gains by their continuing patronage of caste and communal politics which, as the example of Gujarat shows, can unfortunately spiral out of control.