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Sixth phase may decide the winner |
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With confusing signals emerging about the performance of major political parties and combines in the first two phases of the Lok Sabha elections, accounting for nearly one-half of the total seats, and most players keeping their options open, the sixth phase, the period after the results come out on May 16, is expected to decide who comes up on top.
With decline in the voter turnout in the second phase polling on April 23, the Congress hopes of improving on its 2004 performance have gone for a toss. The party may have to work hard during the remaining three phases to make up for the loss in the second phase. The BJP is upbeat on what it perceives as better than expected performance in the second phase, but may not be able to add significantly to its numbers, compared to 2004, because of its likely losses in states like Orissa, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, where it has been deserted by its earlier allies.
Though the Left parties have nothing much to cheer about because of the expected loss of about one-third of their strength in West Bengal and Kerala, they are making a bid for sharing power at the Centre, riding on the shoulders of their allies in the third front and other ‘secular’ parties, which they hope to attract post-poll. CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat has said that the Left is open to participate in and even lead the next non-BJP, non-Congress coalition at the Centre, if the cards fall into place. What is remarkable about the CPI(M) stand is the total opposition to the Congress leading the next coalition in Delhi.
The compliment is now being returned by the Congress. Earlier, the party had been sending feelers to the Left, apart from third front constituents, about allying with them in the post-poll situation for forming a government. The party even now is keeping its options open in so far as seeking the support of so-called secular parties is concerned. But increasingly, the Congress is making it clear that there will be no compromise on its leading the next coalition, as according to the party, the single largest political force should lead the new government. And, in this context, the party has said that Dr. Manmohan Singh will be the party’s prime ministerial candidate.
But allies of the Congress in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) which it heads have a different take on the matter. Increasingly, they are talking of seeking the support of the Left again in the post-poll situation even though the Left has made it clear that under no circumstances it is going to accept a Congress-led government. The CPI(M) has already said that acceptability, and not just numbers, will decide who will be the next Prime Minister.
There is no dearth of prime ministerial hopefuls, either in the UPA or in the third front. Nationalist Congress Party leader Sharad Pawar is leading the race, as he has been building bridges with all sections, running with the hare and hunting with the hound. Because of his friendship with Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray, he is almost sure of the hard line party’s support for his prime ministerial ambitions, if the opportunity arises. The Shiv Sena will have no qualms about quitting the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) if that is the price to be paid for helping a Maratha to occupy the country’s top political position.
Sharad Pawar has also been talking to UPA and third front constituents and associates like the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Biju Janata Dal and the All India Anna DMK to make sure that he has their support in a crunch situation.
If the Lok Sabha election results do not indicate a major gain for either the Congress or the BJP, the third and fourth fronts will decidedly make a strong bid to form the next government, either on their own, or with the support of the Congress. If the BJP puts in a much improved performance, the possibility of some of the third front constituents walking into the saffron party’s parlour again cannot be ruled out.
The signs which are emerging do not portend well for the Congress as the anti-Congress plank of the last few decades has been revived again and is being aggressively pushed by the Left, especially the CPI(M). The Congress response has been that if it does not get the mandate and is not able to get the support of other parties in forming the government, the party would prefer to sit in the opposition, rather than prop up a third front government. Formation of a government without the participation of either of the two principal parties, the Congress and the BJP, will most likely herald an era of political instability and chaos.
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