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Shiv Sena-BJP come up tops in Mumbai : Bitter pill for Congress

	February 05, 2007

Implications beyond Maharashtra



With the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), fighting separately, failing to dislodge the Shiv Sena-BJP from their control of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, the richest local body in the country, the Congress high command is faced with the need to take tough decisions on putting its house in Maharashtra in order and on forging ties with other secular parties in various states.



Overall, the Congress and the NCP got more seats in the civic elections in Maharashtra than in the previous elections, but the failure to forge an alliance cost them dear and allowed the Shiv Sena-BJP combine to claim victory over the secular forces in most of the civic bodies for which the elections were held last week. The Shiv Sena-BJP were able to crow about their victory though their strength declined in eight of the ten municipal corporations for which the elections were held. The Shiv Sena-BJP strength declined from 133 to 111 in Mumbai, from 63 to 53 in Thane, from 53 to 45 in Pune, from 60 to 40 in Nashik, from 25 to 13 in Pimpri-Chinchwad, from 32 to 18 in Akola, from 40 to 24 in Solapur and from 37 to 26 in Amravati. The Shiv Sena-BJP alliance gained only in Ulhasnagar improving its strength there from 19 to 27, and in Nagpur from 54 to 63.



The failure of the Congress and the NCP to come together in the civic polls gave victory on a platter to the saffron alliance even though it was battling the anti-incumbency factor in Mumbai and in several other cities. The Shiv Sena was able to ride over its difficulties caused by the departure from the party of Narayan Rane, now Revenue Minister in the ruling Congress-NCP coalition, who campaigned hard to defeat its candidates and the split in the Sena caused by the exit of Raj Thackeray, Sena supremo Bal Thackeray’s nephew.





Lesson of 2004 forgotten



In their approach to the municipal corporation elections, termed by some observers as mini general elections, the Congress forgot that entering into smart alliances had enabled the party to come to power at the Centre in 2004; alliances in Maharashtra, Assam and Tamil Nadu in the Assembly elections which followed the Lok Sabha elections allowed the party to maintain or improve its position in these states.







Sources say that the party realises it had dug its own grave by taking a struggling Sena-BJP lightly and focusing on settling scores with ally Nationalist Congress Party.



Party sources said it was beginning to dawn on the leadership that spiting an ally was “counter-productive”, and that the “folly” of going solo had given the Sena-BJP a hoist-up.



“Our calculations went haywire,” a source said, accusing central minders and state leaders of misleading the “high command”. The feedback from Margaret Alva, Prabha Rau and Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh was that the Shiv Sena and the BJP had been hit hard by the Uddhav-Raj Thackeray clash and Pramod Mahajan’s death. The Congress just had to walk into the vacant space, making sure the NCP didn’t grab too much of the pie.



The bosses in Delhi took scant notice of the complaints of Muslims being harassed after the Mumbai and Malegaon blasts and the charges of state government bungling after the July 2005 deluge in Mumbai.



Now, the Congress is focused on retaining power in Uttarakhand and Manipur, and then in Goa. Sources said only a “miracle” would keep Amarinder Singh in power in Punjab.



For the record, the Congress admits that division of secular votes was the reason behind the disappointing results in the municipal elections in Maharashtra. Party spokesperson Abhishek Singhvi while admitting that the reverses were because of the Congress not entering into an alliance with the NCP, was in no mood to admit that the party itself was to blame for the situation. He said in New Delhi on February 2, “We made every attempt for the consolidation of the alliance and the agreement was at a very advanced stage, but then others (NCP) backed out.” Singhvi said that in the six corporations where the polls have thrown up hung municipal bodies, the Congress is keeping its options open for aligning with like-minded parties.





Heads may roll in the Congress



Reports say that shocked and embarrassed at the outcome of the municipal elections in Maharashtra, the Congress high command has summoned party leaders from the state for a detailed postmortem to find out what went wrong. Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh, Maharashtra party chief Prabha Rau, Mumbai Congress unit chief Gurudas Kamat and Pune leader Suresh Kalmadi are expected to come to New Delhi over the next few days to explain the reasons for the party’s debacle.



Party sources say that the leadership is particularly upset at the return of the Shiv Sena-BJP combine to power in Mumbai as it may have implications beyond the borders of Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena’s revival in the metropolitan city will have a direct bearing on the overall political scenario in the country. The possibility of heads rolling for the situation which has come about cannot be ruled out.



The BJP, upbeat at the verdict in the Maharashtra civic polls, says that the trend would be repeated in the coming Assembly elections in Punjab, Manipur, Uttrakhand and Uttar Pradesh. Party spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad said in New Delhi on February 2 that the Maharashtra results reflected the countrywide polarisation of the common people against the wrong policies of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) which he said has completely failed in tackling the problem of price rise and is depending merely on the politics of minority appeasement. Another party leader Prakash Javadekar said the killings of dalits in Khairalanji and suicides by farmers in Vidarbha show that the Congress-NCP coalition in the state has failed to respond to the needs of the people.





Thumbs up for Uddhav Thackeray



While the ageing Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray is naturally jubilant at his party beating back the challenge from the Congress and the NCP in Mumbai, the victory marks his son and Shiv Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray coming of age in the political sense.



It was a do or die situation for Uddhav Thackeray. If he had lost the civic polls, specially in Mumbai and Thane, his political career would have, in all probability, ended. And that was what Narayan Rane, and Raj Thackeray, the dissidents who quit the Sena, were hoping for. They worked overtime to ensure that the Sena lost these critical polls so that they could prove that Uddhav was an unworthy successor to Bal Thackeray.



“I accepted their challenge. Even though they hurled the vilest of abuses at me, I refused to retaliate. In fact, their attacks steeled my resolve,” said Uddhav. “He provided tremendous inspiration to the rank and file,” said trade unionist Kiran Pavaskar. Another Shiv Sainik described his functioning in the run up to the polls as “a new avatar” with a change in approach. “He worked quietly for months with his team planning each and every move. His only worry was the seat-sharing talks between the Congress and the NCP. Once they broke down, he was doubly sure that the Sena would breast the tape first.”



When Bal Thackeray anointed his son as his successor, rivals within the party were rattled. Rane’s fear was that Uddhav might stake his claim to Chief Ministership. Raj, who had joined the Sena before his cousin, had taken for granted that he would don Balasaheb’s mantle. But with Thackeray Sr. making it clear that Uddhav would be his political heir, Rane and Raj realised that their days in the Sena would be numbered.



The tables appear to have turned. Most Sainiks, who owe their personal loyalty to the Sena chief, decided to stay back and give Uddhav a chance.





Bal Thackeray sticks to remarks about President



The Congress has described as “indecorous” and “inappropriate” remarks by Shiv Sena Chief Bal Thackeray about President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam. But the Shiv Sena Chief again defended his description of Dr. Kalam as a “dilly-dallying” President while talking to newspersons in Mumbai on Feb. 3. Thackeray said that he was right in making the observation given that Dr. Kalam was yet to decide the fate of Mohd. Afzal Guru sentenced to death in the Parliament attack case.