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Semi-final inconclusive, but advantage Congress |
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The voter has delivered a split verdict in the elections to the Assemblies of four states and the National Capital Territory of Delhi held in November-December. The two principal parties, the Congress and the BJP, shared the spoils in two States each while the Congress was able to retain power in NCT Delhi, over¬coming the anti-incumbency factor. Actually in most of the five states/NCT, where the outcome became available after the count¬ing of votes on Dec. 8, the anti-incumbency factor did not appear to be much in evidence. The BJP was returned to power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on a pro-incumbency wave, where the voters rewarded the ruling party for “good governance” and “pro-people” programmes , which were seen to be implemented. In NCT Delhi also, the Shiela Dikshit-led Congress was able to retain its hold because of what people thought to be effective steps taken to improve the living conditions in the national capital.
In Rajasthan, the Congress was able to get the better of the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP government not because of any anti-incumbency wave, but primarily on account of infighting in the saffron party and general unhappiness with the style of working of the Chief Minister. In Mizoram, the Congress secured an unprecedented four-fifths of the total seats, defeating the Mizo National Front which had been in power for ten years and was facing charges of corruption.
The Congress is happy with its unprecedented third consecu¬tive stint in power in the National Capital Territory as it per¬ceives that Delhi is a mini-India, and the trend may be repeated in the Lok Sabha elections to be held by May next year. The party is also upbeat on ousting the BJP from power in Rajasthan, the second most important state, in terms of its representation in the Lok Sabha, which went to the polls in this round of state Assembly elections.
The BJP on its part, though taken aback by its failure to wrest power from the Congress in NCT Delhi, has got some solace on account of retaining power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The party is especially happy with its performance in Chhattis¬garh where Chief Minister Raman Singh benefited because of pro-poor measures taken by his Government, which enabled the party to overcome the criticism of its failure to put down Maoist ex¬tremists effectively. The BJP is also happy at retaining power in Madhya Pradesh, though with a reduced majority. The party says that this is credit-worthy as Madhya Pradesh was the state with the largest number of seats in the Lok Sabha.
Apart from the Congress and the BJP, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party has reason to be happy with its performance in the Assembly elections though the party’s dream of playing king-maker in these states could not be realised. The BSP has doubled its vote share in Delhi and opened its account in the NCT Assembly for the first time. It also increased its presence in Rajas¬than, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Though the party cannot hope to emerge as a major player outside Uttar Pradesh in next year’s Lok Sabha elections, it is likely to hit the prospects of both the Congress and the BJP, if it continues to expand at its present pace. Even in the current round of elections, it is apparent that the Congress would have won many more seats in Delhi as well as in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, had the BSP not acted as a “spoiler.”
The election results show that the voter or “pappu” as an advertising campaign on the eve of the elections sought to pro¬ject, and to educate the electorate, has woken up and will be examining the performance of the Government in power more criti¬cally in times to come. Emotive issues like caste, creed and religious affiliations are likely to play a reduced role in future elections. The issue of terrorism sought to be raised by the BJP in the current elections appears to have yielded ground to bread and butter matters like which party is good at bringing roti, kapda aur makan (food, clothing and housing) to the people.
All parties will have to take note of the sea-change in voting behaviour seen in the current round of Assembly elections. People are coming out to vote in larger numbers and are basing their choice on performance and not vague promises. The Congress may be having a slight advantage after the December 8 Assembly elections results, but success in next year’s Lok Sabha elec¬tions will depend upon how various parties learn from this month’s voters’ verdict and reformulate their strategy in the changed scenario.
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