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Targeting the Indian Embassy in Kabul for the second time, a Taliban suicide bomber blew up an explosives-laden car outside the mission on Oct. 8, killing 17 people and injuring over 80, including three Indo-Tibetan Border Police personnel. The embassy staff, however, is safe. The attack, claimed by Taliban, has been condemned by India and Afghanistan while Islamabad said elements against the Pak-Afghan relations were responsible.

Last year, a suicide car bomber rammed the gate of the Embassy killing 60 people including a senior IFS officer V.V. Rao and the Brigadier-ranked Defence Attaché. The attack, blamed on Taliban militants and linked to Pakistan’s intelligence outfit, ISI led to fortification of the Embassy and it helped prevent a major catastrophe this time.

According to details of the latest attack, the suicide bomber drove up his explosives-laden vehicle near a side entrance to the Embassy and blew himself. The doors and windows of the Embassy building were blown off and a watchtower inside the Chancery was damaged. Several vehicles and shops in the vicinity of the Indian Embassy and in the Afghan Interior Ministry across the road were totally destroyed.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack and identified the bomber as Khalid. The spokesman was quoted by Al-Jazeera TV channel as saying that the Indian Embassy was the target. Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan Jayant Prasad said, the Afghan security agencies were following certain technical leads but it was evident that the attack was carried out by enemies of the growing friendship between the people of India and Afghanistan. He later had a meeting with Interior Ministry officials to review the security arrangement around the Embassy.

Worldwide condemnation

The attack was strongly condemned by President Hamid Karzai who said it was a heinous act of terror planned to kill innocent civilians. Afghan Foreign Ministry spokesman Fakiri said the brutal attack was carried out by enemies of Indo-Afghan ties and their bases are outside Afghanistan. In New Delhi, Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said the attack was definitely aimed at the Indian Embassy because the bomber with a car loaded with explosives came to the outside parameter of the Embassy wall. She said the intensity of the blast was more or less the same as the July 7, 2008 suicide car bomb attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul which killed 60 people including four Indians. The US Ambassador to India, Timothy Roemer, met Ms Rao to discuss the blast and later said America supported India against terrorism. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband spoke to Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna and expressed sympathy.

Bernard Kochner, the French Foreign Minister said, by attacking the diplomatic representation of a State, once again terrorists have chosen the entire international community that aids and supports the Afghan people as a target. InIslamabad, Pakistan Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit blamed the attack on elements that are prone to sabotage efforts to restore peace in Afghanistan and damage Pak-India relations. Concerned over the suicide attack, India asked world leaders to wrap up the draft for the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism [CCIT].

Nirupama Rao rushed to Kabul to assess the situation. She visited the Embassy in addition to calling on President Karzai, Foreign Minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta and other Government leaders. She pledged to continue humanitarian work in the war-ravaged nation. Indian officials see a pattern in the blast which, they contend is aimed at undermining the country’s increasing role and development initiatives in Afghanistan. A senior officer in South Block said, “Indian engagements in Afghanistan have been under sustained attack with the objective of spoiling them.”

Earlier, addressing a seminar on “Peace and stability in Afghanistan”, in New Delhi on Oct. 7. Ms Nirupama Rao blamed Pakistan for the high-level of violence in Afghanistan because it is allowing the terrorist groups such as the Al-Qaeda, Taliban’s Quetta Shura, Hizb-e-Islami, Lashkar-e-Taiba and other like-minded militant outfits, to operate from its soil.

“Ms Nirupama Rao blamed Pakistan for the high-level of violence in Afghanistan…”

Pakistan High Commissioner, Shahid Malik was also present at the seminar. She warned the international community that if no action was taken against these groups, the gains made over the past eight years in Afghanistan would be compromised and it would become difficult to forestall the restoration of status quo ante to a situation similar to what prevailed prior to the Sept. 11, 2001, when terrorists attacked the US on an unprecedented scale.

Needle of suspicion

While it is still to be concluded who was behind the attack, once again, the needle of suspicion has veered towards Islamabad as the organizer of the attack. Last time, in July 2008 New Delhi had openly the blamed the ISI for the attack on the Indian Embassy with the help of Taliban elements on its payroll. This time, however,the External Affairs Ministry has so far issued no statement either condemning the attack or hinting at Pak-backed Taliban militants having carried out the attack. Speaking to reporters in Kabul, Ms Rao maintained restraint, refusing to blame any country or organization for the attack and saying, investigations were on.

In 2008, the US and Afghan intelligence zeroed in on Pakistan’s ISI and Sirajuddin Haqqani as the masterminds of the attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul. India was told by US officials that the embassy bombing had been sanctioned at the highest levels of the Pakistani intelligence establishment. India is maintaining silence because it may not find US support if it blames Pakistan this time. This is because if the US revelations about the ISI and Taliban in 2008 were designed to put pressure on Pakistan to spur action against terrorists, in October 2009, the situation is somewhat different. The US need Pakistan’s cooperation in the ongoing campaign against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in that country. Indian officials fear that the pressure this time will be considerably diluted. With the Taliban having swiftly claimed responsibility, even giving the name of the suicide bomber, Pakistan has plausible deniability.

The Indian Government is likely to conclude that the suicide attack was scripted in Rawalpindi, presumably as part of its “counter-measure” about which the top US commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, had warned in his 66-page assessment to the Pentagon. His assessment was schizophrenic as far as the ongoing Indian programme of help to Afghanistan in the reconstruction of its war-ravaged economy was concerned. But, he acknowledged that the Indian activities were largely benefiting the Afghan people.

Indian aid will exacerbate tension – McChrystal report

A US journalist, Bob Woodward leaked a confidential report of Gen. McChrystal who noted, among other things that the increasing Indian political and economic influence, including its significant development effort and financial investment “is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani counter-measures in Afghanistan or India”.

Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week, Milton Bearden, a former CIA Bureau chief in Islamabad dwelt on Indian role in Afghanistan commenting that New Delhi has become “firmly entrenched in what has always been viewed by Pakistan as its rear area”. He asserted that India was “becoming involved in Afghanistan to an extent that the Pakistanis considered Afghanistan as developing into an Indian garrison never in the past 30 years has Afghanistan appeared so potentially hostile to Pakistan and friendly to India.” He said President Karzai who got his education in India, is viewed by most Pakistanis as beholden to New Delhi.

He referred to New Delhi developing the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Arabian sea which will give direct road access to Indian exports to Afghanistan and provide India access to oil and gas resources in Iran and Central Asian States, Indian road and rail construction linking Afghanistan and Chabahar as examples of burgeoning contacts at all levels between the Indian and Afghan governments. “This is not hysteria. This is real concern”, Bearden said in his testimony during the hearing on Afghanistan impact on Pakistan.

India commissions power transmission line in Kabul

Meanwhile, amid rising Pak concern over the growing Indian influence in Afghanistan, a 202 km transmission line executed by India to bring electricity to Afghanistan’s power starved capital Kabul has been put into operation until now, the city was running on a gas turbine and some 25 heavy duty diesel generators supplied by the US to provide electricity to Kabul.

Bringing electricity to Kabul was a project which started after a power-purchase agreement was finalized between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. A 462-km transmission line had to be built from the Uzbek border to Kabul of which the last part of 202 km from Pul-e-Khumri near the Salang pass on the Hindukush was to be constructed by India’s Power Grid Corporation. Much of this fell in the “snow zone” at heights reaching up to 3,800mm. As many as 613 towers have been erected, and these were designed in India to withstand inclement weather. Pakistan refused the use of its territory for transporting these towers which then had to be sent via Iran. Also, heavy turbine equipment was moved in what was among the largest airlift operations to Kabul.

Anti-India Pak policy on Afghanistan

Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan has been driven by its desire to acquire a client state. But it has veiled this intent by nicely obfuscating its Afghan policy with its India problem. Unfortunately, Islamabad’s contention, as viewed from Gen. McChrystal’s assessments has been swallowed by the US and in most Nato capitals. While acknowledging that Indian activities are largely benefiting the Afghan people, the increasing Indian influence is likely to encourage Pakistani counter-measures in Afghanistan, he warns. Clearly, political observers say, Pakistan’s continued invocation of the Indian bogey has led the US military to conclude that India’s profile in Afghanistan needs to be diminished. The tail is wagging the dog. In this scenario, observers say, it is imperative that the Indian Government seriously ponder its interest and options, particularly the merits of working within the limits of American policy towards Afghanistan. The first option is to continue to provide aid, train limited sections of the Afghan Government and security forces and keep relations with President Karzai in good repair. The problem with this option is that while these activities are perceived favourably by Afghans, these are largely reliant on continued presence of western security forces who cannot sustain the current tempo of operations in Afghanistan beyond 18-24 months. A debate is going on in Washington DC to draw down the troops which is likely to creats a security vacuum in the hinterland leaving India with the option of either suspending its activities or approving the deployment of its own paramilitary forces. The second option is to accept the underlying premise of the Afghan-Pak policy. The Americans in turn might be able to facilitate a limited Indian presence in the North and West of Afghanistan along the border with the energy-rich republics of Central Asia and Iran. The problem with this option is two-fold. First it is increasingly apparent that the US cannot promise, let alone delivery, anything significant in Afghanistan.

“The Americans in turn might be able to facilitate a limited Indian presence in the North and West of Afghanistan…”

Kabul rather than Washington will be India’s most crucial partner. The third option is to craft a genuine regional approach outside the current American framework. Observers say, the two pronged approach of simultaneously increasing developmental and security sector assistance should be coupled with wider diplomacy involving India’s longstanding partners in Afghanistan: Iran and Russia. Oddly enough the McChrysler review considers these countries roles through the lens of Pakistan’s strategic interest in Afghanistan. China too may not be averse to such a big tent approach. Beijing’s increasing concern about extremism in Xinjiang is matched by its growing unease with the situation in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan through Pak glasses

The question to ask is, why Pakistan thinks Afghanistan is a zero-sum game. Minus the Taliban, the Pakistanis are detested throughout the country because of the role they have played in prolonging war and mayhem there. Pakistan has another fear. The Durand Line that marks the Pakistan-Afghanistan border has not been recognized by any Afghan government, not even the Taliban when it was in power. Currently, with the rise of the Pakhtun-dominated Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, the Durand Line has all but vanished, the Pakhtun areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan are operating as one area under the leadership of the Quetta Shura headed by Mullah Omar. On the other hand, New Delhi may not mind a pro-India Government, but it can live comfortably with a neutral Afghanistan, as indeed can other regional and international players – Iran, Russia, China, the US and EU. Pakistan cannot match the Indian constructive activity – building hospitals, roads, power plants, transmission lines, transmitting skills to Afghan workers and officials.