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Regional outfits may emerge stronger, keep both Congress, BJP out of power |
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With all political parties, big and small, national and regional, engaged in a no holds barred battle to emerge stronger in the next Lok Sabha, there are indications that the regional parties may gang up, either before or after the coming general elections to frustrate the bid of the Congress to retain power and of the BJP to regain control at the Centre. Both the Congress and the BJP, the two major political forces in the country are face to face with the real challenge of maintaining their relevance at the national level. The possibility of a realignment of political parties taking place has increased, with the allies engaged in hard bargaining for allocation of a larger number of seats in talks with the Congress and the BJP.
The smaller parties, constituents of the Congress led United Progressive Alliance, UPA, and the BJP led National Democratic Alliance, NDA, are holding out the threat of quitting the alliance of which they are a part if they do not get a fair share in the seat-sharing. Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has opened talks with Bal Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, when the Congress rejected its demand for a national level alliance. The Shiv Sena, on its part, is sending a message to the BJP, the leader of the NDA that it will not be satisfied with its junior partner status in Maharashtra. There are reports that the Shiv Sena is already negotiating a deal with another regional party, the Peasants and Workers Party, PWP, which has pockets of influence in several areas of the state. If the Shiv Sena, the PWP and the NCP come together in Maharashtra, it will be a potent combination, which will be able to defeat both the Congress and the BJP fighting separately.
In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress and the Samajwadi Party have still not been able to agree on seat-sharing. Faced with the Congress unwillingness to climbdown from its demand for allocation of about 25 of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state, Samajwadi Party president Mulayam Singh Yadav has even talked of an alliance with the BJP if it gives up three of its core planks, including the building of Ram temple at Ayodhya and revocation of Art. 370 of the Constitution, which gives a special status to Jammu and Kashmir. The party, of course, later said that it has no intention of tying up with the safforn party. But the message is clear that the Samajwadi Party can go to any length to have its way in the allocation of seats.
In West Bengal, the Congress and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress appear to be inclined towards having an alliance, but there has been no formal announcement so far. The Congress perhaps has not made up its mind on whether to declare an open war on the Left parties. If the Congress and the Trinamul have a formal alliance, it will reduce the possibility of the Left parties coming to the rescue of the Congress, if it needs more support in the post-poll scenario for forming the next government. The Congress perhaps wants to keep the door open for the Left parties, if the need arises. That may be the reason for the slow progress on formalisation of an alliance with Mamata Banerjee’s party.
In Tamil Nadu, All India Anna DMK chief Jayalalithaa has stirred the melting pot of coalition politics by suggesting that it would be better for the Congress to dump Karunanidhi’s DMK and tie up again with her party for the Lok Sabha elections. She said that the ruling party in Tamil Nadu is facing public anger and if the Congress remains in alliance with the DMK, it will meet the same fate. The Congress on the record has said that it has a “strong alliance” with the DMK, but tongue in cheek, Congress media department chairman M. Veerappa Moily said: “We have not received any proposal for an alliance from the All India Anna DMK.” Practically, the Congress may be keeping its options open. Last minute switches are common in Tamil Nadu.
The BJP has its own share of woes in the relationship with the allies. The Janata Dal United in Bihar, the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa, and the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra are all demanding a larger allocation of seats than during the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. In support of their demands, they cite the weakened position of the BJP as it is no longer in power at the Centre and has been deserted by most of its allies during the last five years. The signals are that the BJP’s NDA allies will have their way and succeed in contesting a larger number of seats.
In the post-poll scenario, the jockeying for power is likely to get worse. A sign of that is already there with prime ministerial hopefuls emerging in parties which do not have even ten seats in the Lok Sabha at present. While the BJP position is already weakened and it may not be a serious contender for power after the general elections, the Congress also cannot hope to make a go for power, unless it secures a much larger number of seats than in the present Lok Sabha. In the absence of a much better showing in the general elections, the Congress will find it very difficult to manage to head a coalition at the Centre again. If one or two of the supporting parties like the Samajwadi Party and the Nationalist Congress Party are able to get a larger number of seats in the next Lok Sabha, they will be staking a claim to head the next coalition at the Centre. This also holds true for parties like Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, which is opposing the Congress. If a regional party, either in the UPA or the NDA, or in the nascent third alternative is able to make a mark in its state, it will be a serious contender for heading the national coalition in New Delhi.
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