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Race for President : Congress in favour of Shivraj Patil

	June 11, 2007

With the race for occupying Rashtrapati Bhavan hotting up, there has been a flurry of political activity in the national capital to decide the candidates of the two main alliances at the central level, the ruling United Progressive Alliance which is supported by the Left parties and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress President and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi are back in New Delhi from their foreign visits and are expected to be able to devote full attention to garnering support for the UPA nominee. CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat, the head of the most important and influential among the Left parties, is returning from his foreign tour tonight (June 11).



The UPA and the Left parties are meeting in New Delhi to discuss the issue where the Congress is expected to come out with its choice for the Presidentship.



Another crucial player, whose support will have an impact on the winability of the UPA nominee, Bahujan Samaj Party supremo and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati, is also expected to open her party’s cards on the matter. With Uttar Pradesh Gover¬nor T.V. Rajeshwar refusing to sanction to the CBI for prosecut¬ing Mayawati in the Taj Heritage Corridor scam, observers say that she may be well inclined towards the Congress or UPA nomi¬nee. At her meetings with Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on May 25 and 26, she is reported to have assured them that she would along with the UPA’s choice. At a news conference at the time Mayawati had made it clear that she would continue to support the UPA from outside as nothing had changed after her victory in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elec¬tions. With the UP Governor not sanctioning her prosecution in the Taj Corridor scam, she may choose to return the compliment and support the UPA nominee for President.





NDA should support UPA candidate : Manmohan



Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has, in the meantime, ex¬pressed the hope that the BJP and other constituents of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), would support the UPA nominee for President, returning the courtesy the Congress had extended in the last Presidential elections when it had voted for Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam. Speaking to mediapersons on board the special plane bringing him back from the G-8 summit in Germany, Dr. Manmohan Singh made it clear that the next President would be a candidate of the ruling UPA.





Responding to questions, he said: “There should be consen¬sus in the favour of the UPA-Left candidate. After all, last time we agreed on a consensus for Dr Kalam. I hope this time the NDA endorses the UPA candidate.”



Singh, who will look to initiate talks with various parties once the candidate is decided, also expressed confidence that the next President would be supported by both the UPA and the Left. He, however, said the candidate had not been decided and would be made public after the elections are formally announced.



“There is a 15-day period after the elections are announced when the nominations are made. You will hear about our candidate then,” he said.



Currently, Home Minister Shivraj Patil is the front-runner from the Congress though the Left is still to endorse him. The Left is more comfortable with External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and, in fact, had pushed for his name but the Congress made the argument that he was indispensable to the functioning of the Government. While there were questions over the NCP not supporting Patil, sources said these fears were overstretched as the NCP would support the Congress candidate in this case.



Even on the issue of cross-voting, the logic in the Congress camp is that any MP deciding to do so would have to take into account that the person would be voting in favour of an early election. Singh was confident that despite moves for a third front candidate, there was no threat to a UPA-Left nominee. “The next President will be the nominee of the UPA-Left alliance.”



At the same time, Dr. Manmohan Singh made it clear that the ruling alliance was not averse to facing a contest should the NDA insist on fielding a candidate like Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat.



Patil front runner : Sonia Gandhi has final say



Sources in New Delhi say that Home Minister Shivraj Patil has emerged a front runner as the possible Congress nominee of the UPA-left combine. Congress president Sonia Gandhi who has been authorised by the party working committee to finalise its Presidential nominee has set up an informal committee to nego¬tiate and secure a consensus on Patil’s candidature. The commit¬tee consists of External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Defence Minister A.K. Antony and Political Secretary to the Congress president Ahmed Patel.



The Committee has held talks with UPA constituents like Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Ramvilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party. It is also expected to talk to Left leaders this week.



Apart from Patil, the other serious contender for the Con¬gress candidature Pranab Mukherjee has been told by the Prime Minister as well as by the Congress president that he cannot be spared from his political ministerial responsibilities.



Leaderships of the DMK and the RJD have already conveyed to the Congress that they will support the Congress choice. The party also hopes to secure the endorsement of the Bahujan Samaj Party. There are reports that the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) which had some reservations about Shivraj Patil, has been brought around and may not oppose his candidature.



However, a section of the Left is reported to have reserva¬tions about Patil as it believes that as Home Minister, he had been soft in dealing with communal forces.





Somnath Chatterjee for Vice President ?



With its becoming clear that the Congress will have its way on the next incumbent of Rashtrapati Bhavan, there are reports that the CPI(M) has sounded out Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee on whether he would consider contesting the Vice President’s post which is due to fall vacant in August. But there is no confirmation of the move. Chatterjee had earlier indicated that he would like to be seen as a presidential hope¬ful.



Sources say that if Somnath Chatterjee agrees to the propo¬sal, Left parties are willing to bargain for the Vice President’s post in return for supporting the UPA presidential candidate.



Last week, former West Bengal Chief Minister and veteran CPI(M) leader Jyoti Basu is learnt to have spoken to the CPI(M) leadership over phone, in support of Chatterjee. The Speaker, a senior CPI(M) leader, has been known to belong to the Basu camp within the party fold.



With Mukherjee being considered out of the presidential race, the West Bengal brigade would not mind backing Chatterjee for the vice-presidential post now, and bargain for it with the UPA.



However, UPA’s strong southern ally DMK may also demand the vice-presidential chair, though it is yet to indicate this. Senior DMK leader and Finance Minister in M Karunanidhi’s cabinet in Chennai, K Anbazhagan, who is also the number two man in the party’s hierarchy, is a likely candidate the DMK may push for the vice-presidential chair.



According to DMK sources, Karunanidhi would like to send Anbazhagan to the Capital to promote his younger son Stalin to the number two position, so that the son can comfortably take up the party’s reins after him.











Shekhawat likely to stand as ‘Independent’



Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, who makes no bones about his saffron background and beliefs, may fight the race for the President’s post as an Independent candidate. He has been busy traveling across the country trying to win and in¬fluence any person who can boost his prospects. Among the important leaders he met during the past six months are veteran CPI(M) leader Jyoti Basu, JDS leader and former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda, Karnataka Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy and Bihar Chief Minister and JDU leader Nitish Kumar. Shekhawat has been to Mumbai, Vardha, Yavatmal, Pune, Jabalpur, Kolkata, Patna, Puducherry and Bangalore in a bid to contact potential voters.



The BJP on its part has made Shekhawat’s task easier by relieving him of the NDA tag. Senior party leader Sushma Swaraj said on June 6 that being the Vice-President, he had ceased being a member of a party and, therefore, could contest as an Independ¬ent. The move is intended to mobilise some one lakh votes held by the five-party combine of the SP, AIADMK, TDP, AGP and INLD. Shekhawat’s poll-managers have set their sights on smaller par¬ties, not committed to either side, besides Independents.



Then there is the caste factor, which most people suspect would come in to play. Shekhawat’s followers hope that Rajputs would vote for him across party lines. After all, he had secured some two-dozen votes in addition to the strength of the NDA and parties and individuals openly backing him when he was elected Vice President in 2002. The bulk of these additional votes be¬longed to Rajputs from the rival camp.





“Third” front may support Shekhawat



The decision of eight regional parties to form another front or alternative, which is yet to be named, may favour Shekhawat if he stands as an Independent. The eight parties are the Telugu Desam Party, the Samajwadi Party, the All India Anna DMK, Asom Gana Parishad, the Indian National Lok Dal, Babu Lal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha, Vaiko’s MDMK and a faction of the Kerala Congress led by K.J. Thomas.



The parties at their meeting in Hyderabad on June 6 are understood to have decided against backing any UPA nominee for the President’s post. They dropped broad hints at supporting Shekhawat as an Independent contestant. The stand was endorsed again in Chennai later in the week by All India Anna DMK chief Jayalalithaa who said that her party will not support any Con¬gress nominee for the presidentship. The combined voting strength of the eight parties in the Electoral College for the presidentship is around 1.1 lakh votes. The Congress, however, says that it is not perturbed over the possible impact of the formation of the third front on the Presidential election. Party spokesperson Jayanti Natrajan said in New Delhi, “A strong secu¬lar candidate will emerge as the next President of India.”



Apart from Shivraj Patil and Pranab Mukherjee, other leaders who are being talked about as possible UPA nominees include AICC treasurer Moti Lal Vora and former Jammu and Kashmir Sadr-e-Riyasat Dr. Karan Singh. A dark house emerging as the UPA nominee cannot also be ruled out.



Dr. Karan Singh met CPI general secretary A.B. Bardhan in New Delhi on June 7, reportedly in a bid to soften the Left parties’ reported objections to his candidature. His name figured in the original list of three prospective candidates of the Congress put forward by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in his discussions with Left leaders who had objected to Karan Singh’s name over his alleged Hindutva leanings and his royal lineage



On the Left’s objection about his involvement in organising the Virat Hindu Samaj, Karan Singh is understood to have clari¬fied that when he realised that the VHP and RSS cadres were join¬ing the organisation, he withdrew from it.



Bardhan then told him that the Left had reservations about supporting anyone for President who belonged to a royal family.



To this, Karan Singh clarified that from the age of 18 he had opposed all royal agenda, including that of his father’s. Karan Singh claimed that during his tenure as Union Minister, he had approved all anti-feudal measures the Government took.



It is learnt that during the meeting which lasted for a little over 30 minutes, Karan Singh tried to convince Bardhan that the Left’s misunderstanding about him was misplaced and “he should be seen as a secular candidate on the Left’s criteria”.





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Left may distance itself from the UPA



There are reports that the bonhomie between the UPA and the Left over the election of the President may not last long as the Left parties do not want to share the burden of the anti-incumbency factor in coming electoral contests. The Left has been exploring ways of distancing itself from the Manmohan Singh Government ever since the Congress lost power in Punjab and Uttrakhand and fared poorly in the Uttar Pradesh elections. It fears that continued engagement with the UPA on policy issues will force it to carry the burden of incumbency. One of the victims may be the UPA-Left coordination panel.



Though the frequency of the meetings of UPA-Left coordina¬tion committee, a forum for policy wrangling between the two sides, has declined over the past six months, the Left is of the view that it is time to consider calling it off officially. The proposal is expected to be discussed at a meeting of the four Left parties after the presidential polls, Left sources said.



Left leaders have been maintaining that the UPA-Left coor¬dination committee had become “irrelevant” as its suggestions were being ignored by the Government while formulating policies. However, at this juncture, the Left which is in favour of a UPA candidate occupying the President’s chair, fears that any acri¬monious move from its side would cast a shadow over the cam¬paign.



A section within the Left has been saying that it is time to review its relations with the UPA. However, this has few takers among the top leadership of the CPI(M) which has brought down the decibel levels of the “consider withdrawing support” segment. The withdrawal from the coordination panel, which was set up on the demand of the Left to make regular interventions in the policy matrix of the Government, would be symbolic of the Left’s ire with the Government. The Left parties are expected to joint¬ly assess the Government’s performance over the past three years at the meeting scheduled to be held after the presidential polls.



However, there is admission within the Left that it was in no position to go in for ‘political adventurism’ as it had no alternatives in the present political scenario. The Left has been dismissive about the proposed third front with its reserva¬tions over being part of a combination which includes AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa.



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Cabinet reshuffle after Presidential poll



The Prime Minister has indicated that a reshuffle of the Union Cabinet will take place after the Presidential election in July. Speaking to newspersons on June 9, he said, “there should be a reshuffle. I think it will happen after the Presidential poll.”



Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil’s possible move to Rashtrapati Bhavan is expected to set the stage for the first reshuffle of important portfolios. The Prime Minister had so far refrained from reassigning the key portfolios, limiting himself to tinkering on the margins.



A vacancy in the Home Ministry would require the Congress leadership to look for a Congressman with the same loyalty quo¬tient as Patil’s but better political instincts.





Politics can be the art of the impossible



Congress president Sonia Gandhi has said that India has taught her that politics was not just the art of the possible, it could also be the ‘art of the impossible.’ Delivering a lecture, “Living Politics : What India has taught me” at Nexus Institute at Tilburg in the Netherlands, she said she has often been asked why she turned down the prime ministership after being unanimously elected the party leader in Parliament.



“I always knew in my heart that if I ever found myself in that position I would decline the post of Prime Minister,’’ she said. She told her colleagues that ``it was dictated by my inner voice.’’



Sonia Gandhi said, “The plain fact is that power for itself has never held any attraction for me.”



“My aim in politics has always been to do whatever I can in my own way to defend the secular democratic foundation of our country and to address the concerns and aspirations of the many whose voice often remains unheard,” she said.



Sonia Gandhi said that democracy over the years has made India more egalitarian but also given new power to some old forces “that sought to polarise and mobilise communities along religious lines.” They threatened the very essence of India, the diversity of faith and cultures, languages and ways of life that have sprung from its soil and taken root in it, she said.



The Nexus Institute is a leading Dutch think tank, which organises conferences on political, cultural and philosophical issues. Prime Minister of The Netherlands, Jan Peter Balkenende, hosted a dinner in honour of Sonia Gandhi.