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Presidential poll : Shekhawat, Pranab Mukherjee front- runners

	May 21, 2007

There is still no clarity on the Presidential nominees to be put up by the ruling United Progressive Alliance and the opposition National Democratic Alliance though Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee at this stage appear to be front runners for nomination for the post. Both the major combines are still working on the numbers game to ensure adequate support for their nominees. With the UPA just a little ahead of the NDA in the Electoral College for the Presidency, the game is quite open and the possibility of a dark horse, which can get the support of parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party, emerging cannot be ruled out.



On the UPA side, the Left parties have openly endorsed Pranab Mukherjee’s nomination as a UPA-Left presidential candidate, but the Congress has not opened its cards on the issue at this stage.







On Thursday, May 17, CPI(M) politburo member Sitaram Yechury said in a public comment, “if the Congress and the UPA put up Pranab Mukherjee, we will support him.” But party general secretary Prakash Karat continued with the line that names have not been finalised and discussions are still on. On Pranab Mukherjee’s possible candidature, Karat said it was for the Congress to take a decision.



Echoing Yechury’s stance were CPI leader D. Raja and Forward Bloc general secretary Debabrata Biswas. Reflecting the Left’s views, Biswas said the UPA must decide a candidate carefully as a contest was inevitable for the President’s post. The UPA candidate must be a strong one as such a contest could be a close one, indicating the desirability of a heavy-weight nominee like Mukherjee from the UPA-Left side.



The Congress, however, was non-committal on putting up Pranab Mukherjee. On the sidelines of a function at Rashtrapati Bhavan, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on May 18, “I am not saying anything on this matter; it is not appropriate.” Dr. Singh said discussions are on and it was too premature to come out with a name at the stage.



There are reports that the Congress list of prospective nominees, apart from Pranab Mukherjee included Sushil Kumar Shinde, Dr. Karan Singh and Shivraj Patil. The Left is understood to have rejected Karan Singh’s name and the Nationalist Congress Party was lukewarm to supporting Sushil Kumar Shinde.



Pranab Mukherjee himself tried to distance himself from the Presidential election issue saying, “I am a Congressman, my role in the party and in the Government is decided by the Congress leadership. Whatever responsibilities are assigned to me, I try to discharge those to the best of my abilities. Any speculation in this matter should be avoided.”



On the NDA side, the Opposition alliance has authorised former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to decide its nominee for the Presidential poll. The NDA meeting held in New Delhi on May 15 authorised Vajpayee to take “appropriate” decision at an “appropriate” time on the nominee.



Trinamul Congress chief Mamata Banerjee did try to create a splash by proposing the former Prime Minister’s name for President.



L.K. Advani said the decision should be left to Vajpayee, who kept mum, and the alliance decided to meet after four or five days to pick up the threads again.



Mamata sprang the surprise when someone asked why A.P.J. Abdul Kalam should not get another term. A source close to Mamata quoted her as saying while Kalam had a great innings, if Vajpayee was fielded, there would be “heavy cross-voting because Vajpayeeji is not a politician any more, he is a great statesman”.



Sources said the NDA would not reveal its hand in a hurry. Within the BJP, a section felt that as in 2002, when the Congress kept everyone guessing until the NDA zeroed in on Kalam and decided to back him once the Samajwadi Party pre-empted it, the party should wait for the UPA to unfurl its plans.



If there is a candidate like Kalam, who could facilitate a process for consensus, the NDA would strategise accordingly.



Others in the BJP favoured a contest and proposed fielding Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat.



However, the counter-view was that a political heavyweight like Shekhawat should not be subjected to a defeat in the sunset of his career.



After the humiliating performance in the Uttar Pradesh elections, the BJP has lost the chance to gain a numerical advantage.



Besides, the party cannot bank on Uttar Pradesh’s two big players, the BSP and the Samajwadi Party. Mayawati has conveyed through her interlocutors to the UPA that she might support a Congress candidate but with certain conditions.



Political logic had it that if Mayawati went one way, her rival Mulayam Singh Yadav would look the other way. But that is not an open-and-shut case, given the perception that the Samajwadis’ “secular” moorings may not permit them to openly do business with the BJP.



Other reports say the BJP has made up its mind to back Bhairon Singh Shekhawat as the NDA nominee for the Presidential polls, and is convinced it will be able to prevail over partners like JD(U) who have reservations on the issue.



The perception is that a good showing in the Presidential election could deliver a much-needed fillip to the BJP, and help recover political ground after failing in Uttar Pradesh. “If we do well in the Presidential polls we would have made our comeback,” a top BJP leader said.



Shekhawat’s appeal across parties was evident during the Vice Presidential elections in August 2002, when he defeated the then joint opposition candidate Shinde by 149 votes, the margin boosted by 42 MPs who cross-voted. Against that background, the prospect of his candidature has led to worries within the UPA camp.



Observers say the final call on who is the UPA’s nominee, will depend on other constituents as well as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and BSP supremo Mayawati. The BSP boss has not put her cards on the table. In the after-glow of her victory in the Uttar Pradesh elections, she is sure to insist on having her way.



In a related development, the Samajwadi Party has now agreed to abide by the Left parties’ choice on the Presidential nominee even if the candidate belongs to the Congress.



“In the changed political situation, we will go with the decision of the Left parties,” Samajwadi Party general secretary Amar Singh said in New Delhi on May 17.



The statement spelt a reversal of his stand that his party would not go with the Left if it backed a Congress candidate.



Sources traced the Samajwadi Party’s change of heart to the growing realisation that after the Uttar Pradesh debacle, the party needed to cling to the Left and re-assert its anti-BJP posture.



The shift in the party’s position took place during two days of talks Mulayam Singh Yadav had with party leaders in the capital. After laying down the line on the presidential poll, the party chief left for Lucknow.



Samajwadi Party sources said the BJP had approached Amar Singh yesterday for support to its candidate. But several Samajwadi Party leaders were of the opinion that going with the NDA would be “suicidal”.



Amar Singh, however, did not forget to express his unhappiness with the Congress, accusing it of playing politics of “animosity” and “enmity.”







NDA ahead of UPA in 11 city opinion poll



An opinion poll conducted by Times-TNS India Survey in 11 major cities has bad news for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) ruling at the Centre. While the ratings of the Government and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are holding firm, the survey indicates that more people in the country’s biggest cities would now vote for the NDA than for the UPA.



The opinion poll on the UPA’s tenure so far reveals that 58% of respondents feel Manmohan Singh has been an excellent or good PM. Another 28% feel he has done an average job and only 12% said he has been a poor helmsman. That’s almost the same ratings as in November last year, when the government finished half its term.



The government’s ratings haven’t changed much since November either, with 48% rating it good or excellent, 33% rating it average and only 16% giving a ‘poor’ rating. But that doesn’t seem to have helped UPA in keeping voters hooked.



Though 36% of respondents said they would vote for the Congress or its allies if there were an election today, 38% said they would vote for BJP or its allies. That’s a shift from November, when both polled 37%. The real loser, however, is the Left which 10% backed in November, but only 6% are now willing to vote for. The major gainer is BSP, which got barely 0.1% of the votes six months ago, but now has 2.2% backing it.