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President Hu’s visit : Low on substance |
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Harjit Singh
The much-hyped visit of the Chinese President to India and Pakistan cannot be considered a path-breaking one for either country. While the much-touted agreement about China offering to set up six nuclear power plants in Pakistan to counter the Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation did not materialize, the only gains of his visit to India have been 13 pacts, most of them of an insignificant nature and a ten-point joint declaration which merely specified as “a strategic objective” their desire to resolve the border dispute.
Even before President Hu Jintao’s visit, it had been conveyed to New Delhi that unlike the path-breaking agreements reached during earlier top level exchanges, when agreements were signed which ensured peace and tranquillity on the border and institutionalised the dialogue process through Special Representatives, the border issue would not be a major focus. The fact that China did not like the border issue to be on the radar became clear when India did not press its suggestion for holding a meeting of the two Special Representatives ahead of President Hu’s visit.
India understood China’s desire to concentrate on other issues to improve relations on the economic front where it has been decided to double trade to $40 billion by the year 2010, but New Delhi was peeved at the remarks by Chinese Ambassador Sun Yuxi that the whole of the State of Arunachal Pradesh belonged to China. Of course, the Chinese Foreign Ministry tried to play down his remarks after External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee asserted that Arunachal Pradesh was an integral part of India. But, how sensitive the issue is became clear when Members in both Houses of Parliament, cutting across party lines, criticized the Chinese observations on Arunachal Pradesh and even demanded that Parliament pass a resolution calling the State an integral part of India.
On another issue of crucial importance to India, New Delhi was hoping that the Chinese President will convey his country’s endorsement of the Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement which will go before the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group [NSG] once the US Senate and House of Representatives are able to iron out differences over the respective legislations they passed. China’s support at the NSG to relax its guidelines, in the case of India as a special case, is important because any resolution to be in force has to be passed unanimously. Before President Hu’s visit to New Delhi, China was seen to be wanting the resolution to be drafted in such a way that it benefits not only India but Pakistan as well. Instead of a country-specific resolution, it suggested that criteria should be established on what grounds such an exception can be made. If one goes by the joint declaration signed at the end of Hu’s visit to India, there is little change in the Chinese stand although the wording of the paragraph on the nuclear issue is such that it can be interpreted in different ways. It said, “consistent with their respective, international joint commitments,” they agreed that “international civilian cooperation” should be advanced through innovative and forward-looking approaches while safeguarding the effectiveness of global non-proliferation principles.
On the trade issue, while India was cool to Chinese suggestion for a Free Trade Agreement, it was amenable to consider a regional trade arrangement.
In his public statements, President Hu said India and China were not rivals. They were not competitors. The two countries constituted two fifths of the world population and could set the pace of development in Asia and elsewhere. The Chinese and Indian economies are the fastest growing in the world. While the two way trade between China and its closest ally, Pakistan, is no more than $4 billion, its trade with India is $20 billion and is set to increase to $40 billion. In the past, the Chinese leaders are on record as having said that China and India have made such a big progress in the IT sector that if India’s acumen in software development and China’s in hardware development could be married, they could be a great IT power in the world. President Hu himself admitted, while in New Delhi, that China does not believe, the growing Indo-US relations were aimed at containing China. China, if he is to be believed, does not think the US is helping India in such a way that it could rival Beijing as an economic giant.
But, the legacy of bitterness in India-China relations is such that it will take a very long period for China to extricate itself from its old policies of viewing India through the prisms of hostility. The old Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai era may be a thing of the past, but the end of the Cold War, Russia as a factor in India’s foreign policy, India’s own steady improvement of relations with Pakistan, its growing economic and political ties with Myanmar, its rise as an economic power, China’s own improvement of relations with the US, require China to view India as a partner in progress rather than a State standing in the way of its rise as an economic and military power.
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