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Politics in flux after Left ultimatum on Nuke deal : Heading towards mid-term poll ? |
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B.I. Saini
The Left’s ultimatum to the Congress-led UPA on the India-US civilian nuclear deal has created a first rate crisis for the Manmohan Singh Government. There are only two options available to the Prime Minister and Congress president and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi - accept the Left demand and lose face, or defy the Left and lose power.
Even if the Government finds some way of meeting the Left demand and ‘softening’ the CPI(M)-led parties, there is not going to be smooth sailing for the government. The Left has already made it clear that it will be closely examining all Government policies, especially those having a bearing on the economy and foreign affairs to see that they are in consonance with the National Common Minimum Programme. What it means in effect is that the Left would be having a veto on all policy issues, virtually paralysing governance.
Earlier, there was some relief for the Government when Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee ruled out any motion on the nuclear deal, which entails voting, averting danger of the UPA government falling in Parliament.
Even if the Government survives, the Left, especially the CPI and the smaller Left parties, have made it clear that there will be only merit-based support to the Government. They say that every major issue will be examined threadbare by the Left parties before they agree to any Government policy or major programme.
This means that the Government will always have to look back on its shoulders to see and assess the Left’s attitude towards whatever it is planning. Already, the Manmohan Singh Government’s agenda of economic reforms has come to a grinding halt because of the spokes in the wheel put by the Left. The disinvestment programme has virtually been abandoned, and reforms in the Insurance and Pension sectors are not making any headway. The CPI has said that it would extend merit based support that would require the Manmohan Singh Government to consult the party on all policy issues. It has again demanded that the Government should put the India-US nuclear deal on hold. The CPI(M), the major force in the Left, is dominated by hardliners like general secretary Prakash Karat, who would want the Government to agree not to operationalise the nuclear deal. The voices of moderation like those of veteran Jyoti Basu, who has said that the Left will continue to support the UPA for a full term of five years, are increasingly becoming less effective in the CPI(M).
Prakash Karat had earlier said that the UPA-Left “honeymoon may be over, but marriage can go on.” Seen with CPI general secretary A.B. Bardhan’s statement that “divorce papers” are being readied, it is clear that the Left is looking for an opportune moment to desert what it thinks to be the sinking ship of the UPA.
Rightly or wrongly, large sections of the thinking public and the intelligentsia see the nuclear deal as a major step forward for the country, ending its decades old isolation. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has staked his political future on the deal, which was apparent from his remarks during the interview with Kolkata newspaper, The Telegraph, that the nuclear deal cannot be renegotiated and the Government cannot go back on it. He virtually dared the Left to do “whatever they want to do, if they want to withdraw support, so be it.” This means that the UPA, or at least the Congress, would rather face elections than go back on the nuclear deal.
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