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PML[Q] rout in Pak elections: Problems galore for Musharraf |
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Harjit Singh
Before the pro-Musharraf PML(Q)’s rout in the Feb. 18 elections, President Musharraf had confided in an interview with Jemima Khan for the INDEPENDENT newspaper that “it will be the saddest day for Pakistan if Benazir’s crooked widower is in power.” His prophecy has, however, come true. He further admitted he had been wrong in dropping corruption cases against the late Benazir Bhutto for reasons of political expediency.
But for the pressure exerted both by the US and Saudi Arabia to allow the two exiled Prime Ministers to return and take part in the elections, the political scenario in the country would have been different. The two victorious parties, PPP and PML[N], with many handicaps such as the absence of a leader of national stature and the corruption cases against Benazir and Nawaz Sharif still pending in courts, would not have posed serious challenge to the Musharraf loyalist PML[Q]. But, their return and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto created a sympathy wave in favour of her party now co-chaired by her husband and teenager son.
Gen. Musharraf has also lost another trump card: the hold on the Army. In his combo position as Army Chief and President, he found himself in a stronger position to tame his political opponents and use intelligence agencies like the ISI to split their ranks and rig the elections. But, in spite of being his protege, the new Army chief, Gen. Kayani, before the elections, told the Army commanders in the strongest possible terms that the military should have no role in the political affairs of the country and the force will not be used in any manner whatsoever in the election process. Gen. Kayani stood by his word and earned the laurels of political leaders as it is generally understood that if this had not been the case, the elections would have been rigged massively in favour of the ruling party.
Gen. Musharraf is now driven to the wall: the Army Chief is not ready to play his game, his sworn enemies would be in power, the top stalwarts of the PML[Q] and his close confidants such as Ahmed Rashid and Shujaat Chowdhury have lost and since the PML[Q] is mostly made up of defectors, many of them may flock back to the parent party, PML headed by Nawaz Sharif.
The common hatred of Zardari and the PML[N] chief against Musharraf brought them together against the PML[Q] and Musharraf though they differ on policy matters such as the reinstatement of sacked Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and other superior court judges. Sharif’s anxiety to have them reinstated clearly emanates from his hope that Chaudhry would dismiss the hijacking case filed by Musharraf against him under the Anti-Terrorism Act. Zardari on the other hand is adopting a somewhat conciliatory attitude towards Musharraf. Before the elections, he did not rule out cooperating with the Musharraf-backed party to form a Government of National Consensus. Unlike Sharif, he is not talking of rallying the opposition parties for a two-thirds majority to impeach the President for his authoritarian actions like the dismissal of judges and imposition of emergency. Zardari’s meeting with the US Ambassador before heading for a meeting with Nawaz Sharif for talks on forming a coalition Government is another important indicator that the American influence on Zardari not to embarrass or trouble Musharraf is working. Both the slain PPP chief and Zardari were beholden to the United States which put pressure on Musharraf to facilitate their return to the country. But for this pressure, they would have been cooling their heels in London or Dubai and Musharraf would have massively rigged the election, as he did the last time, to ensure the victory of the PML[Q].
India would be watching with interest the unfolding developments in Pakistan. It has in its official reaction said it is ready to deal with any democratically-elected combination. India may be hoping for better relations with the PPP-PML[N] combo in power. It is worth recalling that Nawaz Sharif had embarked on a big peace initiative, known as bus diplomacy, with then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, when Vajpayee paid a historic visit to Lahore by bus. Sharif, while in exile, confided that they were on the verge of taking a big initiative to resolve the Kashmir dispute but Musharraf’s clandestine intrusion into Kargil, without his knowledge, killed the initiative. Similarly, Benazir Bhutto has written in her autobiography that she and former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had developed a rapport and were taking significant steps to normalize the ties but the ISI sabotaged the move.
India can look forward to concrete outcome in the resumed composite dialogue with Pakistan on eight contentious issues including Kashmir, Siachen and Sir Creek. Much will, however, depend on the attitude of President Musharraf who has amended the Constitution and arrogated to himself all the executive powers which make the Prime Minister and his Government a toothless body.
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