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Operation Enduring Freedom : Taliban on the run

	October 15, 2001

The US Operation Enduring Freedom against the Taliban in Afghanistan is now in its seventh day. In these seven days, almost all the command and control facilities, air ports, communication networks, airports and even Government buildings have been destroyed by waves of US aircraft and cruise missiles taking off from the aircraft carriers and a British submarines stationed in the Arabian Sea. Except for Friday, the holy day for the Muslims, the US attacks have been consistent and relentless. After two days of night air raids for fear of the Taliban antiaircraft missiles hitting the US planes, the US resorted to day strikes as well after their anti-aircraft batteries were destroyed. The Taliban is not putting up any kind of resistance although it is issuing defiant statements. President Bush in his weekly radio address, gave the Taliban the last chance and said he was ready to halt the attack if the Taliban handed over Osama bin Laden. But, the Taliban has laughed off the offer and said it was ready to put him on trial in a Sharia Court if the US provided the evidence.

Major Afghan cities like Kabul, Kandahar, Jalalabad, Khost and Herat have been targeted by the US planes. At least twice, the US bombs strayed from their course and hit civilian targets - once when a UN office responsible for mine clearing facilities was hit killing four members of the staff and again when a bomb meant for hitting a helicopter parked at the Kabul airport, missed the target and landed in a nearby residential neighbourhood. The Taliban has alleged that some 300 people have so far been killed in the US attack.

Mullah Omar and his family have apparently gone into the hiding. One of the bombs hit the compound of his house in Kandahar, but Mullah Omar escaped because he had left home just 15 minutes before. But, reports say that one of his sons has been killed. The Taliban Air Chief too has been killed, but the Taliban has not admitted to these two killings.

The US strategy is that once the Taliban forces have been sufficiently weakened, it will give military backing in the form of weapons and intelligence information to the Northern Alliance forces to advance to the capital because for fear of casualties in a difficult terrain, the US army does not want to take any risk.

The Northern Alliance has already made gains and is only 40 kilometres from the strategic Mazar-e-Sharif, the onetime stronghold of Gen. Dostam. The next target of the Northern Alliance could be Kabul, just forty kilometres from where they are entrenched. The US strategy is that once the Taliban is defeated, the ex-King of Afghanistan, Zahir Shah, would be brought in who will call a meeting of all the provincial chiefs, clerics and other scholars to form Loya Jirga, a traditional Grand Council which will take a decision on the type of transitional broad-based Government ahead of a democratically-elected Government. Pakistan is not happy with an arrangement in which the Taliban does not have an important say. It has already warned that the Taliban would take to guerilla warfare if they were not accommodated in the new dispensation.

There are no traces of Osama bin Laden. Yet, from his hideout he has been sending out defiant messages through the Qatari Television channel, Al-Jazeera. Soon after the US air strikes began, in an apparently pre-recorded video message broadcast by the TV channel, he warned the US of more attacks because, as he alleged, all along the US had insulted Islam. Subsequently, his spokesman appeared on the same TV channel twice. In one of the appearances, he said, thousands of Muslim youths were ready to sacrifice their lives for the cause of Islam and that they would storm into the US targets in hijacked planes. He said, the Muslims were as keen to die in Jehad as the Americans were keen to live in luxury. In the second message, he once again indicated that the terrorist attacks were in the offing and advised Muslims all over the world to avoid travelling by air or living in high rise buildings.

The US has dismissed the threat as a propaganda device, but they are privately worried about the threat. FBI has urged the people to be on the alert.

In the US at least four cases of anthrax infection have been reported and the US authorities have reports that before the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, the hijackers had tried to requisition some agricultural spray planes allegedly to spray anthrax. President Bush has further expanded the list of the Most Wanted men which include Bin Laden and two of his lieutenants. Bush said, the release of their pictures would bring them out of secrecy.

Bin Laden has been making threats only from his hideouts and so far the US Special Forces have failed to locate him. Last week, there were intelligence reports that he was somewhere in the Pamir mountains and a joint American, British and Russian mission was launched. But, it has so far failed to find him. One of bin laden’s son, in a newspaper interview on Oct. 13 has said that his father was living in a cave where he could not be killed by a conventional weapon. He said, only nuclear bomb or a chemical weapon could be successful. According to him, Bin Laden left his camp soon after the terrorist attacks on US on Sept. 11 in a convoy of sixty trucks along with his close aides. The US will be using bunker busting bombs once the intelligence satellites or surveillance equipment which they have deployed, is able to locate him. But, political observers say, in such a case one could not be sure whether he has been eliminated because even his body will be impossible to find.

Pakistan President on the other hand, is in a sullen mood. He has to face music from his people for agreeing to go with the US in its military campaign against the Taliban, which had at one time been raised, funded and equipped by the erstwhile Pakistan Government because of its strategic place in the security of the country. Now, the same government was ready to sacrifice it in the name of what Gen. Musharraf says are the National security interests.

There have been protest demonstrations almost daily in Pakistan and last Friday, the religious parties had given a call for protests all over the country. Four people were killed in the street violence. Gen. Musharraf has responded by ordering the arrest of at least three top religious leaders and political observers say it may not be taken kindly by his followers and the country could see further protest demonstrations in the coming days.

Gen. Musharraf had earlier said that although he had agreed to support the US campaign against Taliban, that support would be confined to intelligence information sharing and allowing the US planes to fly over Pakistan. US troops would not be allowed to use the Pakistani ground. But, now reports say that the US personnel have landed at a Karachi airport in dozens of transport planes and that they have been allowed the use of two major air bases in Jacocabad in Sindh and Pasni in the frontier province. If US at all decides to launch the ground attack.

Gen. Musharraf also faced an embarrassment when at the instance of the United States, he had to remove the ISI chief, Lt. Mahmood Ahmed in an army reshuffle in which at least three top military officers with pro-Taliban leanings were sidelined. The other two are Lt. Gen. Osmani and Lt. Gen Aziz Khan. Incidentally, all these three officers had helped Gen. Musharraf come to power in a military coup. They had obeyed his instructions while his plane which was not being allowed to land, hovered over Karachi airport. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had ordered the airport staff not to allow the plane, which was running out of fuel, to land, so that he dies in a plane crash or runs away to any neighbouring country. But, Musharraf ordered Osmani, Aziz Khan and Mahmood Ahmed, to go ahead to arrest Nawaz Sharif and arrange for the landing of his plane. Political observers say, but for this, Gen. Musharraf would have been in jail now.

What is all the more galling is that the US asked Gen. Musharraf to remove Lt. Gen. Mahmood Ahmed after India furnished to the United States evidence of Mahmood’s hand in the terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre and Pentagon. Washington was told that it was at the instance of Mahmood that Sheikh Syed, a terrorist who was released by India from a Jammu jail to secure the release of the passengers of a hijacked plane, had sent $100,000 to Mohammad Atta, the man who piloted one of the hijacked plane to New York and then crashed into the World Trade Centre.

India is, however, satisfied with what is going on in Afghanistan. External Affairs Minister, Mr. Jaswant Singh, has gone on record to say that the removal of Taliban from power would be to the advantage of India because Al-Qaeda had been funding and training the terrorists operating in Jammu and Kashmir. With the Taliban and Osama gone and with Pakistan under US pressure to wind up its terrorist agenda, Kashmir may see a relative peace in the days to come. India has offered $100 million for relief and reconstruction of the war-torn Afghanistan.

The Prime Minister, Mr. Vajpayee, was elated that President Bush spoke to him on telephone to discuss Afghanistan and decided to send his Secretary of State, Colin Powell, to New Delhi, to brief him on the situation. Mr. Vajpayee also spoke to President Putin on telephone to discuss the issue. India, Russia and Iran all favour Northern Alliance to have a key role in Afghanistan. Last week, they had a joint meeting in Dushanbe, to discuss their strategy.



Pakistani and Indian stakes

Commenting on the Indian response to the terrorist attacks on America, political observers say, it be based on ground realities, the motivations and objectives of the US, the rationale and implications of Pakistani President Musharraf’s decision to cooperate with the US in this campaign; and finally the extent to which the Indian response will safeguard India’s national interests.

Both Prime Minister Vajpayee and Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh initially extended unreserved support to the US. The Indian government offered, without any preconditions, whatever operational, logistic or intelligence cooperation that the US required in its anti-terrorist campaign. India did not link terrorism with any religious or ethnic community. But, it hopes that the campaign will cover all categories of terrorism, including cross-border terrorism, against India.

These points form the message conveyed by National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra and the Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh during their meetings with President Bush and his cabinet colleagues in Washington in the last one month. The US response to the Indian policy stance so far has disappointed public perceptions in India. No US pronouncement acknowledged that a major democracy and an important Asian power like India had pledged full and unconditional support to the US. There were no indications that the US could include cross border terrorism, against India, originating in Pakistan, in the ambit of its campaign.

While India wholeheartedly supports the US joining the war on terrorism, there are worries whether general Musharraf will not extract a price from the US for his cooperation by getting Pakistani terrorism against India and the proxy war in Kashmir exempted from the definition of terrorism.

All the media reports in the US indicate that US-Pakistani cooperation in dealing with Taliban and Osama bin Laden is not very intense. A major article in the Washington Post of October 3, 2001 under the byline of Bob Woodward, refers to how the Clinton administration’s efforts to capture bin Laden through a commando raid from Pakistani soil approved by Nawaz Sharif and then ISI chief general Ziauddin was aborted by the military coup of general Aziz which led to the takeover by general Musharraf in 1999. Similarly, an op-ed article by Jim Hoagland dwells on the unreliability of Pakistan as an ally. Anti-US demonstrations in Pakistan have received wide coverage in the US electronic media. So also the US emissary’s discussions with ex-king Zahir Shah and the Northern Alliance. The Americans are sensitive to the Pakistani ISI and armed forces being penetrated by Taliban and pro-bin Laden elements. In a speech he made it clear that he was yielding to the US demand to join the coalition only in the same spirit in which the Holy Prophet made tactical compromises with his enemies to bide his time to vanquish them later has not passed unnoticed. Therefore, even while US officials will continue to maintain in public that US-Pakistan intelligence cooperation is going on well, the US will be very careful in accepting at face value any intelligence offered by the Pakistani ISI without independent verification. General Musharraf has also made it clear that Pakistani land facilities are not likely to be available except as a last resort. The Pakistani ruler is attempting to run with the hare and hunt with the hound. Pakistan has opposed US support to the Northern Alliance or negotiating with ex-king Zahir Shah. Given these factors, military expert K. Subramanian, says India must be careful in assessing the nature of US-Pakistan cooperation and its likely long-term consequences.

The US strategy to attempt to cultivate Pakistan in the war against the Taliban makes eminent tactical and strategic sense. Pakistan is geographically adjacent to Afghanistan and, therefore, is in a position to provide facilities to launch a military operation against Afghanistan. Second, by compelling Pakistan to cooperate at least publicly with the US-led coalition, a wedge is created between the Taliban and the non-jehadi public in Pakistan. Pakistan’s reluctant cooperation with the US opens a new front against the Taliban which has to divide its forces and attention between the military effort from the north and south. Pakistan has been compelled to close its border and stop the flow of further supplies, including fuel, to the Taliban. This is bound to hurt the Taliban in terms of its capability to resist military operations from the north. The US has extracted permission from Pakistan to overfly its airspace for conducting operations against the Taliban. Therefore, Pakistan is a crucial factor in America’s strategy against the Taliban. That does not necessarily mean that the US will rely on Pakistan for its commando operations. Pakistan finds itself in an unenviable position.