Nuclear deal : Sonia Gandhi’s intervention saves the UPA Govt.,Indian Politics, News Analysis, India News Online

In the biggest roll back during its tenure at the Centre, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government has put the India-US civilian nuclear deal on the back-burner, ending speculation of a snap poll in the wake of sharp differences with the Left on the issue. The Government and top Congress leaders, who were saying just the previous week that there was no going back on the nuclear deal, virtually acknowledged last week that it had been decided to halt negotiations on the Indo-US nuclear agreement.

What could not be achieved by the Left during nearly three months of its campaign against the nuclear deal, was accomplished by key UPA constituents like the Rashtriya Janata Dal, DMK and the Nationalist Congress Party, when they made it clear before, during and after the meeting of the UPA-Left political committee on the nuclear deal on Oct. 9 that they do not look forward to the prospect of early general elections.

“If deal falls, life would not end,” says PM

Both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress president Sonia Gandhi used their speeches at The Hindustan Times Leader¬ship Summit in New Delhi on Oct. 12 to lay to rest speculation of the country heading towards an early election because of the UPA’s differences with the Left parties, who are providing cru¬cial outside support to the Government, over the nuclear deal.

“Elections are still far away. The government has still one-and-a-half years to complete its term. I hope and expect we will stay the course,” the Prime Minister said at the HT Leadership Summit.

“No, we are not in favour of early elections. As the Prime Minister has said, the deadline is 2009. We are going to do all we can to see that we implement our programmes till 2009,” Sonia Gandhi said.

She said the government would be working to bring about consensus with the Left on the nuclear deal. “We are still in the process of talking to them.”

While Dr. Singh inaugurated the summit with a written speech and then responded to questions, in the next session, Sonia Gandhi interacted with Vir Sanghvi of the Hindustan Times and then replied to queries.

Asked whether he had staked his personal prestige on the nuclear deal and its failure would make him appear a weak Prime Minister, Dr. Singh said he would be disappointed if the deal failed to materialise but the government was trying to reconcile its differences with the Left parties.

“We are not a one-issue government. We have made changes in various areas ... but in life one has to take certain disappoint¬ments and move on to the next.”

“... If the deal does not come through, that is not the end of life,” Dr. Singh replied to another query.

“In politics, we must survive short-term battles to address long-term concerns,” he said.

Both leaders said their recent statements, which were seen as challenging the Left on the nuclear deal, were ‘misinterpret¬ed.’ Sonia Gandhi said her speech at Jhajhar in Haryana was targeted not at the Communists but at the local opposition.

“Every one [in the hall] would want me to say that it was an attack on the Left. But it was not. .... We are in a coalition. If I want to say about something which I don’t agree with them, the last thing I would do is to go out and shout and scream and say I don’t approve of it. If I don’t agree, I would call that person and tell him directly that I don’t agree with you.”

Dr. Singh pointed out that his observations on the nuclear deal published in The Telegraph were in response to a public statement by the Communist parties. “I don’t think I have over¬stepped ... I am conscious of my responsibilities, what I should say and what I should not say.”

Dr. Singh said the India-U.S. agreement “is an honourable deal that is good for India and good for the world.” Referring to the differences over the deal, he said, “We are in the realm of politics,” where there were differences of perception. “We are trying to reconcile the divergent points of view. I have not given up hope that reason and common sense will ultimately win the day.”

Sonia Gandhi disagreed with a questioner that the Left was being unreasonable on the nuclear deal. “No, I don’t think they are being unreasonable. We have to understand the Left. They have certain ideology, they have some views. They are merely stating their views. Naturally, we are working together. We have to understand their views and we have to take note of what they say.”

Sonia Gandhi also spoke about the imperatives of the “dharma of coalition ... [which is] to work together, try and understand and accommodate each other’s view.”

Allies and uncertain poll prospects force Congress hand

Observers say that what could not be achieved by the Left parties during their nearly three-month long high-pitched cam¬paign to stop the nuclear deal with the United States, was accom¬plished by UPA allies within hours when they threatened to desert the Congress if the situation is pushed to a point where fresh elections become the only option. UPA constituents like the RJD, the DMK and the NCP are none too confident about their poll prospects in case of a snap poll. As the situation is, they cannot hope for a repeat of their 2004 Lok Sabha poll perfor¬mance when the RJD and the DMK had virtually swept the elections in their respective states, Bihar and Tamil Nadu. While the Congress is hopeful that it would better its performance, the rest of the UPA constituents may have found their role and weight in their respective states reduced substantially in a mid-term poll. The UPA constituents on the whole may have bet¬tered their performance to an extent, but not to a degree that they could form a government on their own without the support of other parties like the Left, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party.

Reports say that UPA constituents like the RJD, DMK and the NCP urged the Congress to buy peace with the Left on the standoff on the nuclear issue.

UPA-Left panel informed, no formal talks with IAEA

Under pressure from the allies, the Government reportedly informed the UPA-Left political committee on the nuclear deal on Oct. 9 that no formal talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on safeguards would be held for the time being. The Left leaders later claimed, there would not be any forward movement on India’s negotiations with the IAEA till the next meeting of the committee fixed for Oct. 22.

The next meeting was earlier envisaged to be held on Oct. 14, but it was shelved as both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee would be out of the country at the time. There are also reports that the CPI(M) politburo meeting scheduled for Oct. 18, to discuss the Left parties stand on the nuclear deal may be postponed.

Sources said RJD chief Lalu Prasad and NCP supremo Sharad Pawar told Congress president Sonia Gandhi last week that they did not share “the Congress euphoria over a mid-term poll.” Sources said DMK president and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karun¬anidhi communicated a similar message to the Congress leadership before the meeting of the UPA-Left political committee.

According to Left sources, Lalu Prasad and Sharad Pawar told Congress brass during the meeting that with price rise and grow¬ing unemployment issues breathing down the neck of the common people, “Congress euphoria on going to the polls is somewhat misplaced.”

Sources claimed that Lalu Prasad told Pranab Mukherjee to “listen to the Left for the sake of the Government.” Later, he held the hands of all political leaders, and said: “Let’s not allow the Government to fall.”

That the pressure mounted by the allies did work, became apparent when after the meeting, the Left leaders claimed that the Government had agreed not to hold formal negotiations with the IAEA during the visit of its chief Mohamed ElBaradei.

Asked to comment on the IAEA chief’s meeting with the Prime Minister, Yechury quipped ‘atithi devo bhava’ (a guest is god). “Our agenda is the (India-US) nuclear deal. It is not mid-term elections and not destabilisation. We are saying don’t proceed with the deal. Once they take a decision, we will then decide what to do,” Yechury said after a two-hour-long meeting of the four Left parties in New Delhi.

The Left parties met hours after the meeting of the UPA-Left committee on the nuclear issue, following which CPI general secretary AB Bardhan said, “We don’t think any formal negotia¬tions will begin (with IAEA) before this Committee comes out with its findings.”

Yechury said the joint committee was set up with a clear understanding that its findings would be considered while opera¬tionalising the deal.

“It is there in black and white. We are going by that as¬surance. Four meetings (of the UPA-Left Committee) have already been held and another will follow on October 22.”

No clear-cut UPA win possible : Cong assessment

Observers say a critical factor in the Manmohan Singh gover¬nment’s backing out of confrontation with the Left over the India-US nuclear deal was the Congress core group’s assessment that there was no certainty of the UPA being able to score a clear-cut victory if polls were held soon.

Poll calculations by the party brass did not provide the Congress leadership the confidence to take its differences with the Left to breaking point. Though some Congress quarters felt the party could improve on its 2004 tally, it was not clear how much better the party would do.

The Congress core group was also significantly influenced by its UPA partners who were not ready for elections. As the Con¬gress upset win in 2004 was powered in good measure by well-struck alliances, the mood of the allies was taken into account and given due weightage. It also bolstered the unease within the Congress over facing elections.

Well placed sources drew a parallel with the 2004 elections where the BJP’s front-runner status evaporated quickly. The ‘feel-good’ campaign went awry and the popular mood turned against the incumbent. Though Congress leaders feel the party was not as badly placed, there was insufficient evidence to risk an election. “It was very difficult to predict things,” said sourc¬es.

Allies happy, Left cautious about Congress U-turn

While the UPA constituents are happy at the Congress retreat on the nuclear deal, which has averted the prospect of an early election, the Left is cautious and waiting and watching future developments.

DMK chief and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi has congratulated Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi on their remarks at the HT Leadership Summit in New Delhi which ended speculation of an early election. In separate letters to both leaders, he said Sonia Gandhi’s address revealed her “profound understanding” of politics and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had made “scholarly” “pregnant” comments at the summit.

Karunanidhi in his letter to Sonia Gandhi said : “You have said that the dharma of coalition is to work together, try and understand and accommodate each other’s view. These vibrant words speak volumes of your profound understanding of politics.”

The constructive and practical approach to the problems being developed and introduced by her would go a long way in improving the country’s political atmosphere, he said.

In his letter to the Prime Minister, Karunanidhi said, “Your scholarly response to questions is really extraordinary and remarkable.”

Karunanidhi said he could see the Prime Minister’s “inner conscience” through the “pregnant words.”

These include, “We are not a one issue government, we have made changes in various areas in life, one has to take certain disappointments and move to the next, if the (nuclear), deal does not come through, that is not the end of life, in politics, we must survive short-term battles to address long-term con¬cerns,” he said. These comments epitomise the whole of Dr. Singh’s experience in politics and in various other spheres of life, Karunanidhi said.

Left positive, but guarded

The Left parties said that while they are happy that Dr. Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi have reiterated the principles of a coalition, they will not lower their guard till the last word is said on the nuclear deal. Left leaders said they would be watching the next step of the government.

CPI(M) politburo member Biman Bose said in Kolkata on Oct. 13 that his party will analyse the deliberations at the forthcom¬ing UPA-Left committee meeting on Oct. 22 when he said the “real intention” of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the 123 agreement would be known. The CPI(M) has decided to defer its politburo meeting in New Delhi slated for Oct. 18 to take a stand on the nuclear issue. A new date is to be announced later.

In New Delhi, another politburo member Sitaram Yechury said that what the Prime Minister said on Oct. 12 was in tune with the understanding with the Left.

CPI general secretary A.B. Bardhan said Dr. Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi’s statements were positive, but what the govern¬ment finally does, remained to be seen. He said it appears that the Government has finally realised that the nuclear deal was not the only issue before the country.

RSP leader Abani Roy said, “What they have said is good, but they would have to give it to us in writing. The same stance could have been conveyed to the UPA-Left political committee.”

Observers say that the Government virtually putting the nuclear deal on hold, thus accepting CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat’s key demand, would reinforce Karat’s numero uno status in the Left Front. His senior colleagues like Jyoti Basu and Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee were not initially keen on a confron¬tation with the Centre over the issue.

Manmohan ‘weakest’ PM, says Advani

Reacting to the virtual climbdown by the Government on the nuclear deal, senior BJP leader L.K. Advani has said that the volte face confirms his party’s evaluation that Dr. Manmohan Singh is the “weakest Prime Minister India has had.”

In a strongly worded statement, Advani said that “the ex¬traordinary combination of ineptitude, arrogance, immaturity and lack of conviction that Dr Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi have displayed in the past three months shows that the thoroughly opportunist alliance that is the UPA is unfit to govern India. The episode also confirms our party’s evaluation that Dr Manmohan Singh is the weakest Prime Minister India has had.”

Advani said that the UPA Government was at its weakest point now since its inception in May 2004. “From now onwards, its journey can only be downhill,” he said. He added that after keeping the nation on tenterhooks for over three months and precipitating the worst ever political crisis for his own govern¬ment because of his “intransigent stand over the Indo-US nuclear deal, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has suddenly done a U-turn.”

Recalling the PM’s earlier stand, Advani said the U-turn marks the “end of whatever little legitimacy he had in the high office he occupies.”

He added: “If Dr Singh and Sonia Gandhi have suddenly back¬tracked, they have done it not out of any principles, but purely due to a rude realisation that going ahead with the deal would sink the government. Both of them owe an explanation to the nation as to why they caused virtual paralysis of their own government for the past three months.”

The RSS also came down heavily on Dr. Singh’s statement dub¬bing it a “classic case of chickening out under pressure” after calling the opponents of the deal enemies of the nation.

BJP to go ahead with poll preparations

Senior BJP leaders say that despite the Government’s U-turn on the nuclear deal, averting the possibility of a snap poll, the party will go ahead with preparations to face elections.

The party said that it cannot trust the UPA. Party leader Venkaiah Naidu suggested that the Government’s latest stance on the nuclear deal may be part of a plan to put the main Opposition off-guard. Former Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad added on Saturday that BJP president Rajnath Singh and the Leader of the Opposition L.K. Advani will go ahead with their plans to tour various parts of the country to ensure that party state units go full throttle ahead with streamlining the party’s election ma¬chine.

It has not gone unnoticed by the BJP that the Congress has recently revamped its party set-up; it has inducted Rahul Gandhi as one of the general secretaries; and Congress president Sonia Gandhi has begun making election-like speeches as at Jhajhar in Haryana.

The BJP has already begun the exercise to induct new allies into the National Democratic Alliance fold. Prasad had a long meeting with AIADMK leader Jayalalithaa in a bid to coax the party into the NDA; last month the BJP re-worked its relationship with the Shiv Sena that had soured after the Sena voted for the UPA candidate Pratibha Patil in the July Presidential poll ignor¬ing the BJP’s pleas to vote for Bhairon Singh Shekhawat; and more recently, general secretary Vinay Katiyar rushed to Bhubaneshwar to smooth out irritants that had surfaced in the BJP’s ties with the Biju Janata Dal.

The BJP is not ruling out a mid-term poll even if that does not happen in the next few months, and it does not want to take any chances.

No timeframe for nuclear deal

Earlier last week, the Congress went on the defensive saying that there was no timeframe for finalising the nuclear deal with the United States. This was a far cry from the party’s earlier stand that negotiations on the deal cannot be put off for ever. Congress spokesman Veerappa Moily, speaking in New Delhi on Oct. 11, said, “There is no deadline for the deal. Both parties (India and US) have not put any deadline.” Moily added that IAEA chief Baradei has also said that there was no deadline for the safeguard negotiations.

Lalu Yadav, Sharad Pawar rule out snap polls

Another straw in the wind last week came from RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav and NCP president Sharad Pawar, both Union Ministers, who dismissed the talk of a mid-term poll. Speaking in Patna on separate occasions on Oct. 11, they said that the Manmohan Singh Government is not going to fall over differences between the UPA and the Left over the nuclear deal.

NCP chief and Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar, who was in Patna to attend a party programme, claimed that despite differences between the UPA and its Left allies on the nuclear deal, the Manmohan Singh government would not fall.

Pawar said, “Problems do exist between the UPA and the Left on some provisions of the nuclear deal. The Left parties have voiced some concerns, which as the ruling coalition we are ob¬liged to address. But the government will not fall over the issue.”

RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav echoed the views expressed by Pawar. Addressing a press meet, Lalu said, “There is no threat to the Congress-led UPA government despite differences with the Left allies.”

Claiming that no political party was in favour of early polls, Lalu said the UPA government was trying to address the concerns voiced by the Left parties in an amicable and cordial manner.

Left rejects Sonia Gandhi’s peace proposal

On the eve of the meeting of the UPA-Left political commit¬tee on the nuclear deal, Congress president Sonia Gandhi had a meeting on Oct. 8 with CPI(M) leaders Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury. Earlier, Karat had met External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee at his residence in New Delhi. There are reports that Sonia Gandhi suggested that the CPI(M) should drop its objections to the UPA Government’s discussions with the IAEA to negotiate India-specific safeguards. But she did not succeed in her ef¬fort.

The Left leaders, it is learnt, rejected Sonia Gandhi’s plea and stuck to their stated position that the UPA government re¬frain from operationalising the deal, which includes negotiating with the IAEA.

Before Sonia Gandhi stepped in to mediate between the UPA and the Left, Pranab Mukherjee suggested to Karat a compromise formula according to which the UPA would go ahead with its nego¬tiations with the IAEA but will append its signatures on the final agreement only after the Left parties scrutinised the text. Karat, it is learnt, was not agreeable to this suggestion.

A day earlier, Pranab Mukherjee met veteran CPI(M) leader Jyoti Basu in Kolkata on Oct. 7. State Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and CPI(M) state committee secretary Biman Bose were present at the meeting held at Jyoti Basu’s residence. None of the leaders present disclosed what transpired at the meeting.

Sonia Gandhi’s Jhajjar remarks upset the Left

Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s observation in Jhajjar, Haryana, on Oct. 7 that those opposing the nuclear deal were against the country’s development, upset not only the Left, but also the BJP.

Addressing a rally, a combative Sonia Gandhi not just de¬fended the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal, but also branded those opposing the deal as an “anti-development, anti-people” crowd. “Those who oppose the Indo-US deal are enemies of development. They should be taught a lesson,” Sonia Gandhi told her audience, after laying the foundation stone of the Rs 7892-crore 1500 mega watt Indira Gandhi Super Thermal power project.

Sonia Gandhi, who attempted to drive home her government’s point that the deal with the US was aimed at meeting the coun¬try’s energy requirements, said the Centre will not capitulate to pressure from the critics of the agreement.

Expectedly, the Left hit back at the Congress and said it was forcing an early election on the country. “We have always worked for development and the country’s supreme national inter¬est. If the government goes ahead, no one should blame the Left for forcing a mid-term poll,” CPI’s D Raja said.

Other Left leaders also joined in the attack on the Congress and said that the withdrawal of support to the Centre was now just a formality. “The Congress president has said that she will seek a mandate on the nuclear deal. We are ready to meet the challenge,” Left leaders said.

The Congress president used the occasion also to shield her party from the attack of the Opposition over the “Lord-Ram-did-not-exist” affidavit filed by the government in the Supreme Court. Sonia Gandhi, who emphasised that the Ram Setu contro¬versy could be resolved without hurting any section, said her party revered Lord Ram.

In a terse reaction to Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s offensive against critics of the Indo-US nuclear deal, CPI(M) pa¬triarch Jyoti Basu on Oct. 8 described it as “uncalled for”. He said if the Congress wanted elections, the Left Front was ready for polls as well.

Basu, however, hastened to add he would like the UPA govern¬ment to continue with Left support for some time, though he doubted very much whether the Congress and the Left could work out the common ground on the nuclear deal.

Observers say while Basu has been mouthing the party line, he has added a caveat that he wanted the government to survive.

The BJP reacted sharply to Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s statement describing those opposing the nuclear deal as anti-development. BJP spokesperson Prakash Javdekar said the party condemned Sonia Gandhi’s statement calling those who oppose the n-deal and present alignment of Sethusamundaram Project as ene¬mies of development and peace.

“It is not only arrogance but the statement smacks of intol¬erance and dictatorial tendencies. This is precisely the Congress character: to call those opposed to their policies as the forces opposing the country’s progress. Actually, it is the Congress, which has halted the progress.”

Javdekar reiterated the BJP’s opposition to the nuclear deal as “strategic subservience to US foreign policy.” “The nation has not approved the proposed deal. The majority in Parliament is opposing this deal and Government has not addressed any of the concerns raised by Opposition parties”, he said, adding that the nuclear power at Rs 15 per unit will not help solve energy cri¬sis.

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