|
Nuclear deal almost dead, but Gujarat elections may take it out of deep freeze |
 |
B.I. Saini
With both the Congress and the Left parties coming out with varying interpretations of what observers regard as UPA’s abject surrender to the Communist parties on the Indo-US nuclear deal, today’s meeting of the UPA-Left political committee may throw some light on how the Government plans either to abandon the 123 agreement or take it forward. As of now, both the Congress and the Left are sticking to their viewpoints on the deal. The Congress says that the deal is good for the country, but concedes that the Left parties have strong misgivings about it. The party says that despite the Left’s stance, it has not given up completely on the deal. As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh put it last week, “the Government would continue efforts to evolve a consensus with its allies and the supporting Left parties in a bid to move forward on the landmark nuclear agreement with the United States.”
The Left parties, however, have again made it clear that they are totally opposed to the nuclear deal. This was evident in CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat’s remark in Mumbai on Thursday, Oct. 18 that the Left parties will not allow India to become a junior partner of the United States. He said that the deal could hurt India on every count and the Left would not allow the deal to go through. He said the Left would continue its support to the UPA Government only as long as the coalition stuck to the Common Minimum Programme.
CPI general secretary A.B. Bardhan, who also addressed the public meeting, where Karat made his latest attack on the nuclear deal, ridiculed the UPA’s assertion that the deal was still on. He said the nuclear deal would result in India losing its independent foreign policy.
From all accounts, it appears that the Left parties would utilise the political committee meeting today to put pressure on the Government to commit formally to giving up the nuclear deal. The UPA and the government would, however, try their best to keep their options open for as long as possible.
The Congress, on its part, wants to continue the process of negotiations with the Left going till at least the end of the year when the results of the Assembly elections in Gujarat would become available. The party is looking forward to the December 23 counting of votes for the Gujarat Assembly elections. The party is leaving no stone unturned to defeat the Narendra Modi-led BJP in the state. Though Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party is trying to butt in, the electoral contest in the state is expected to be primarily between the Congress and the BJP. The BJP has its back to the wall fighting the anti-incumbency factor, as it has ruled the state for 12 years, and a large scale rebellion from an influential section of the party opposed to Narendra Modi. In the last elections held in 2002, the BJP had secured 127 seats, much more than the 51 seats won by the Congress in the 182 member Assembly. If the Congress is able to improve its tally significantly, the party will be in a much stronger position to dictate a schedule for a mid-term election in the country. This may also help in softening the opposition of key UPA constituents like Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, Karunanidhi’s DMK and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party to mid-term elections. At present, they do not share the enthusiasm of the Congress for taking the conflict with the Left on the nuclear deal to a point where it leads to the Communist parties withdrawing support to the Manmohan Singh Government, leaving no option, but fresh elections.
The Left parties, on their part, are none too happy at the prospect of facing a mid-term poll. A combine of the Congress and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress will pose a tough challenge to the Left in West Bengal, their stronghold. If they do not fare well in West Bengal, their leverage at the Centre will come down drastically.
Elsewhere also, it is becoming clear that the Congress is preparing to face early elections, even as it has frozen the nuclear deal. An indication of this came from Uttar Pradesh last week when Congress president Sonia Gandhi, during her visit to Rae Bareli, the constituency she represents in the Lok Sabha, criticised the State government headed by Mayawati for lack of proper implementation of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. This was only the latest indication of the fact that the Congress is no longer treating Mayawati with kid gloves, as it had been doing when the party needed BSP’s support to sidetrack Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party. The Congress knows that it cannot improve its position substantially at the national level without a turn-around in its fortune in Uttar Pradesh which sends 80 Members to the Lok Sabha.
|
