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North-East : Naga ceasefire - Backlash in Manipur

	June 25, 2001

Prime Minister Vajpayee Government’s efforts to solve the insurgency problem in the strife-torn North East region suffered a severe setback last week when the four-year old ceasefire with one of the Naga militant factions, NSCN(IM), was extended on June 14 to other Naga-inhabited areas in neighbouring Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. The accord with the NSCN (IM) on extension of the ceasefire “without territorial limits” was, in fact, signed by the Centre with the sole objective of achieving a lasting peace with Naga militants. But unfortunately it backfired inviting violent protests from the affected states, particularly Manipur.

The state of Manipur where four districts - Chandel, Ukhrul, Senapati and Tamenglong - have a sizeable Naga population, was virtually set ablaze on June 18 when thousands of protesters set on fire the State Assembly and attacked its Members who were forced to go underground. The state secretariat building and the houses of the former Chief Minister, the Speaker, Union Food Minister Chaoba Singh former Deputy Chief Minister Chandramani Singh and several MLAs have been reduced to ashes. The offices of major political parties including the Congress, MSCP, MPP and the Samata were also set ablaze.

Thirteen persons were killed and about 50 injured in the capital city of Imphal when police resorted to firing on a group of people that turned violent while protesting against the extension of the Centre-NSCN(IM) ceasefire beyond the Nagaland borders.

Five MLAs, including Speaker Dhananjoy Singh, were also injured. The office and car of the Governor’s Advisor, Mr. Kipgen, was also set on fire. The situation was reported so serious that the Army was called out and an indefinite curfew clamped. Police burst teargas shells and fired in the air to control the crowds that were approaching towards the heart of the city from various directions. The crowds, however, succeeded in reaching the city centre and then proceeded to set on fire the State Assembly and other government and party offices.

The protesters also burnt the National Flag and effigies of the Prime Minister.

The call for the 24-hour general strike was given by the All Manipur Students’ Union (AMSU). It also reportedly threatened to declare Manipur’s Independence if the Central Government failed to revoke the ceasefire extension decision. The AMSU had also set a deadline for MPs and MLAs from the state to resign. According to reports, the agitation against the extension of the ceasefire to Naga areas falling in Manipur is gradually spreading to interiors causing unrest in the whole state.



Manipuri fears

The Manipuris believe that the Vajpayee government’s decision to expand the ambit of the truce with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah) is a grave mistake. For them, New Delhi is robbing Peter to pay Paul. That the Centre wants to keep the NSCN in good humour at the expense of Manipur is a palpable concern for the Manipuris.

And the Manipuris are not alone in thinking along these lines. Neighbouring Assam and Arunachal Pradesh are also peeved with the Centre’s latest move.

The fear is understandable. One of the NSCN’s ambitions is to include all Naga-inhabited areas in the north-east in one geo-political unit called Greater Nagaland (also called Nagalim). The map initially included parts of Myanmar, but were later dropped. Though NSCN general secretary Thuingaleng Muivah insists that the extension of the ceasefire to cover a greater area on the part of the Centre has nothing to do with the Greater Nagalim demand, no one beyond Nagaland is convinced. The reason is that the dividing line between the NSCN - both the Isak-Muivah and Khaplang factions - and the Nagaland government is seen to be very thin.

In 1993, the Nagaland government headed by Vamuzo passed a resolution mooting the idea of bringing all Naga-inhabited areas in the region under one administrative umbrella. A similar resolution was passed twice later. A few days ago, Chief Minister S. Chuatoshi Jamir said that such an administrative area was possible if Nagas beyond Nagaland so desired.

If this Greater Nagalim theory becomes a reality, Arunachal Pradesh stands to lose Tirap and Changlang districts. Assam might also have to let go of a large chunk of Sivasagar, Jorhat, Golaghat, Karbi Anglong and North Cachar Hills districts. (Over 30,000 hectares across these districts bordering Nagaland are already occupied by Naga tribes.) The vulnerable areas in Manipur are its hill districts.



Playing politics, NDA style

There are some uncomfortable questions that are emanating from the north-east. Would the Vajpayee-led NDA government have given in to the stubborn NSCN had the Samata Party-led Radhabinode Koijam government been still in power in Manipur? Would proceedings have been different if the Asom Gana Parishad had succeeded in retaining power in Assam?

Coincidentally or otherwise, the extension of the ceasefire - and the increased area in which it would be operational - came after President’s rule was imposed in Manipur and after Tarun Gogoi’s Congress swept to power in Assam. The mandate in Arunachal Pradesh had also been in favour of Mukut Mithi’s Congress.

The impression given by the Centre is that Gogoi and Mithi’s opposition to the truce extension was a natural knee-jerk reaction from the Congress, always ready to pounce on the NDA government. Had New Delhi been aware of the social, political, cultural and geographic complexities of the multi-ethnic North-east, it would have understood Gogoi’s stand.

Assamese sub-nationalism is too strong to ignore. Gogoi’s predecessor and former NDA partner Prafulla Kumar Mahanta shared the same view. Sub-nationalism was also the reason why the Assam unit of the BJP hastily retracted its statement supporting the extension of the truce.

Manipur’s case is similar. The Meiteis who comprise more than two-thirds of the state’s 23 lakh population, are, according to observers, in no mood to sacrifice their land to the Nagas, most of whom are Tangkhuls, the tribe Muivah belongs to. Hurting Meitei sentiments is a strict no-no for whoever is at the helm in Manipur. The state’s two Tangkhul chief ministers, Rishang Keishing and Yangmaso Shaiza, were particular about safeguarding Meitei interests as well as those of the Kuki-Chin tribes.

According to the non-Naga communities, the Centre’s “zeal to please Nagas” stems from its “blinkered” view of insurgency in the North-east that has been dominated by the NSCN(I-M). There has been a tendency to generalise militancy in the region, the idea being that if the NSCN can be tamed, handling myriad other outfits would be a cakewalk, as if the NSCN was the “key” to solving the insurgency problem in the region.

The fact is that Manipur’s militant outfits like the PLA and PREPAK have had little or no links with Naga militants. The ULFA in Assam had a strategic tie-up with the NSCN but has been critical of its ceasefire with New Delhi since August 1, 1997. It has also opposed the extension of the truce area to Assam for obvious reasons.

Ever since the Phizo-led uprising in 1950 against the ‘Indian occupational forces’, New Delhi has tried to win over the Nagas with largesse besides monetary sops. This became apparent when the state of Nagaland was carved out of undivided Assam in 1963 comprising areas much beyond the Naga Hills demarcated by the British a century ago. Manipur, then a Union Territory, felt belittled as its statehood demand went unheard until nine years later.



Negative role of power-hungry politicians - Popular unrest

What has frustrated the Manipuris is the political vacuum in the state. The anger against “their impotent, power-hungry” leaders - a string of defections ensures premature death for any government in the state - was simmering when the truce area extension was announced. The state is financially bankrupt, there are no jobs, people have not been paid their salaries for months. There is widespread disgust against the self-seeking politicians. That Manipur was being controlled by the Centre added fuel to the fire; hence the burning of centres of power like the State Assembly and Secretariat and other official buildings.

Is there a solution to the mess in Manipur caused by the Centre’s insensitivity to the concerns for territorial integrity in the North-east’? The only salve that can be applied to the wounds in that state appears to be the withdrawal of the Naga truce area extension. As the AMSU puts it, there should be an effort on the part of Parliament to keep Manipur’s present boundary intact.

That could be more troublesome for New Delhi because now it may not be in a position to upset the NSCN. It had conveniently thrown the ball in the NSCN’s court by acceding to its demand. Placating Manipur could make the NSCN pull out of the ceasefire. But its aging leadership is aware that going back to the old ways could backfire, particularly with Nagaland getting addicted to the relative peace over the past four years.

The mess is likely to get stickier because the Centre may not find an easy answer to the demand by members of the Manipur assembly, now in suspended animation, who have threatened to resign en masse unless the agreement with the NSCN(I-M) about the ceasefire extension is scrapped by next month. Any step in that direction would put the Centre on a fresh confrontation course with the Naga rebels who would then threaten to walk out of the entire ceasefire agreement and resume their insurgency all over the region.

But the Union Home Ministry can try and salvage the situation in Manipur by making Mr. Muivah agree to an amendment to the agreement which would allay fears, not only of Manipur but of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, about their territorial integrity.

According to the latest reports, the Union Government has decided to “review” the accord with NSCN(IM) extending ceasefire to the Naga inhabited areas in other states. The decision was taken at a high level meeting presided over by Home Minister L.K. Advani on June 23. The meeting which lasted more than three hours was attended by various Manipur party leaders who included at least three MPs from the North East and three former Chief Ministers. Among the suggestions made by them were to hold interaction with student bodies, non-government organisations and political parties not represented in the State Assembly or Parliament. The leaders were unanimous in their demand that the clause without territorial limits from the ceasefire agreement the Centre had entered into with the NSCN(IM), must be withdrawn.